Forest Planning and
Decision Support Systems
Pete Bettinger
Professor
School of Forestry and Natural Resources
University of Georgia
Athens, GA USA
Forest Planning
Seminar Program
Istanbul University
Forestry Faculty
25 November 2013
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS)
 Models and methodology for
supporting forest management
decisions and the decision-making
process.
 Models and methodology for
transferring knowledge from
science into practical forest
management.
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS)
Why do we need them?
 In today's management atmosphere,
it is necessary to take into consideration
economic, ecological, and social
objectives and constraints.
 To be able to simultaneously consider
multiple objectives and constraints, it is
necessary to use contemporary models.
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
derin düşünmeyi
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS)
Why do we need them?
 To comply with:
 Regulations (current or proposed)
 Organizational policies
 Voluntary programs
 To improve management efficiency
 To evaluate landscape-level impacts
 To visualize alternatives
 To build trust among interest groups
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Forest Management Decision Support Systems (FMDSS)
Why do we need them?
 To provide some estimation of
potential wood flows
 To understand the ramifications
of strategies - the trade-offs among
competing goals
 To provide direction on what to
harvest (or reserve), as well as
where to harvest (or reserve)
 To understand where to place
certain management activities
in relation to regulations
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Tools and data
Forestry
Model
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Response
Models
Bettinger and Lennette. 2004. Oregon State University,
Forest Research Laboratory, Research Contribution 43
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Example: Farm Forestry Toolbox*
 A collection of programs (tools) to assist
forest owners and managers plan, monitor,
and manage forests.
 Surveying and mapping
 Forest inventory
 Estimating forest growth
 Managing plantations for different
scenarios
 Financial analysis
 Diagnosis of pests and diseases
 Carbon accounting
*Forestry Tasmania
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Example: SilvAssist*
 A single program that
works in conjunction
with ArcGIS to help
manage forest
inventories.
 Forest sample design
 Comprehensive outputs
 Inventory management
 Growth and yield
projections
 Track and plan
management actions
*F4 Technology
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Example: Garcia-Gonzalo et al. (2013)*
Leiria National Forest
 To generate strategic management
plans for a National Forest
 To achieve a regulated age
class area distribution
 To promote biodiversity
 To sustain a timber supply
*Forest Systems 22(2): 359-373
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Example: Garcia-Gonzalo et al. (2013)*
Leiria National Forest
 Four independent modules
 Information management
 Prescriptions generator
 Model generator
 Results viewer
 One single graphical interface
342 stands
100 year time horizon
4 scenarios
Outcomes: Timber flows, forest values,
Pareto frontier for forest value vs. C stocks
*Forest Systems 22(2): 359-373
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Information management
Costs and prices
Inventory
Spatial data
Prescriptions generator
Prescription generator
Growth and yield model
Model generator
Management models
Solver
Results viewer
Reports
Graphics
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Ideal Case of FMDSS
 Easy to understand and use
 Requires a limited amount of training
 Has an intuitive program interface
 Does not require too much data
 Utilizes a common language and set
of terms
 Is readily available and easy to install
 The cost is reasonable (or it is free)
 Does not require licenses or keys
 Does not require extensive set-up
procedures
 Reduces anxiety in using a new process
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Ideal Case of FMDSS
 The model well-tested
 It correctly models current practices
 A number of different scenarios have
been tested
 Processing problems ("bugs") have been
located and eliminated
 Professional testimony is available
 The process is well-documented
 A printed user's guide is available
 Online assistance is easy to use
 Trouble-shooting tips are available
 Increases user confidence in the process
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Ideal Case of FMDSS
 The model(s) use a common data format
 A number of different data management
tools can be used to develop the data
 The data can be shared and edited easily
 Other processes can rely on this stability
 The process is updated as operating
systems change
 The process will work with various versions of
same operating system
 The process will work with different operating
systems
 Increase acceptability of the process
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Ideal Case of FMDSS
 The processes are scientifically sound
 Functional relationships are recognized and
correctly modeled
 Mathematical processes are appropriate
 Validation has occurred
 "Better" available methods are not really "better"
 Transferrable to other areas
 Uncertainties are considered
 Provides justification for using the process
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Ideal Case of FMDSS
 A broad users group is present
 Conferences
 Workshops
 On-line user's groups
 Networks
 Wikis
 Provides multiple avenues of assistance
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Problems Encountered in the Development of FMDSS
 Placed too much effort on data development
 Found that data were relatively unavailable
 Used old technology due to limited funds
 Failed to adapt to new technology
 Involved the wrong people
 Needed the involvement of decision makers
 Needed the involvement of stakeholders and users
 Were unsure of who were the future customers
 Had a limited budget for development
 Placed limited effort on documentation
 Applied limited effort to training
 Received no support from direct management
 Found that periodic timelines were too restrictive
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Data
Technology
People
Organizational
Commitment
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Worries Created with the Adoption of New Systems
 Work load increases
 New work patterns need to be developed
 Ownership and maintenance responsibilities
change
 For data management
 For model processing
 New policies are created
 For data management
 For data acquisition
 For quality control
 For outcome distribution
 Power and influence may change
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Problems Encountered in the Continued Use of Specific FMDSS
 Users demand tools that had personalized options or reports
 Different versions of software emerge (e.g., SNAP)
 Maintenance of tools became challenging for the developers
 Time
 Funding or cost (e.g., LAMPS)
 Science and practice may have had different opinions of the importance of the tools
 Validity or reliability of estimates
 Usefulness of the tool
 Ability to incorporate various forms and qualities of data
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Current Advances in FMDSS
 Internet-based models or models that rely
on cloud computing
 More efficient transfer of research to practice
 Less (or no) software compatibility problems
 Module- or component-based architecture
 Easier to maintain
 Easier to interface with other applications
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Summary
 FMDSS assist the human mind in
determining objectively rational courses
of action.
 As economic, ecological, and social goals
change, our courses of action may change.
 As a result, over time FMDSS models
tend to become:
 More sophisticated
 More complex
 Completely different than before
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Summary
 All models make simplifying assumptions
regarding the system being analyzed in
order to represent the problem in a
tractable manner.
 The most one should expect from the
outcomes is "guidance" for the manner
in which natural resources should be
managed.
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Summary
 The choice of decision support model
should be based on
 the magnitude of the impact
 the time frame
 the budget available
 the degree to which the public should be
involved
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and Decision Support Systems
Summary
 The success of a FMDSS is related to a
number of issues that include
 The characteristics and quality of the
modeling process
 The availability of data
 The availability of technology
 The availability of trained people
 The commitment of an organization
to the development and maintenance
of the program
Forest Planning Seminar Program at Forestry Faculty in Istanbul
Forest Planning and
Decision Support Systems
Pete Bettinger
Professor
School of Forestry and Natural Resources
University of Georgia
Athens, GA USA
Teşekkür ederim!
Forest Planning
Seminar Program
Istanbul University
Forestry Faculty
25 November 2013