FRST 532 COMPLEX ADAPTIVE SYSTEM, GLOBAL CHANGE SCIENCE AND ECOLOGICAL SUSTAINABILITY ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT: STRATEGIES FOR COPING WITH CHANGE AND UNCERTAINTY J. BRIAN NYBERG OUTLINE Definition Goals Adaptive Management Process Key points Question The world is changing, Many uncertainties, continual changes in societal and environmental values WE ALSO… ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IS ONE WAY TO COPE WITH THIS CHANGING WORLD BUT WHAT IS ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT ? DEFINITION ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT is a process for improving policies and practices by managing system( ecological, administrative and other) so as to produce desired outputs and learn about the systems’ dynamics and responses. it is also a systematic management paradigm that assumes natural resource management policies and actions are not static, but are adjusted based on the combination of new scientific and socio-economic information. Adaptive management is widely recommended as a valuable method for managing resources in the face of change and uncertainty. -Forest Management -Water Management -wildlife Management -Environmental impact Management… Uncertainty is always present in natural resource management An integrative approach with a focus on System Analysis ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT GOAL Inform managers of the probable consequences of decisions they will make in the future, so management programs will be more likely to achieve society’s goals and objectives. PROCESS Assess the problem: management objectives, indicatorsof success, options for action, assumptions, key uncertainties, alternative hypotheses Design: Design actions to test hypotheses; predict outcomes based on current knowledge Implement: Implement the actions as designed Monitor: Monitor implementation (is there any deviation from the design?) and effectiveness (were the objectives achieved?) Evaluate: Evaluate outcomes and learn : which actions were most effective, and which hypotheses to accept / reject? Adjust: Adjust future decision ; revise uncertainties and hypotheses and repeat; share what has been learned KEY POINTS, 1 ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT ACKNOWLEDGES UNCERTAINTY ABOUT HOW NATURAL RESOURCE SYSTEM FUNCTION AND HOW THEY RESPOND TO MANAGEMENT ACTION. KEY POINTS, 2 ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IS DESIGNED TO IMPROVE UNDERSTANDING OF HOW A RESOURCE SYSTEM WORKS, SO AS TO ACHIEVE MANAGEMENT OBJECTIVES. KEY POINTS, 3 ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT MAKES USE OF MANAGEMENT INTERVENTIONS AND FOLLOWUP MONITORING TO PROMOTE UNDERSTANDING AND IMPROVE SUBSEQUENT DECISION MAKING. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9xm3cUsY7k 14minutes video on Adaptive Management THANK YOU… QUESTIONS DO ADAPTIVE MANAGEMENT IS SUFFICIENT TO COPE WITH THE CHANGING WORLD AND ITS UNCERTAINTIES GIVING THE FACT THAT HUMANS PHILOSOPHY ….?