Focus 2011 Opening Remarks
01/28/2011 Page-1
UNCLASSIFIED

• Why are we here?
– The Need
– The Vision
• How do we get there?
– The challenge space
– Rigor versus intuition
– Modeling and simulation
• The HSCB Program
– Vision and themes
– Phases I and II
– How success is gauged
– Engagement and coordination
– Highlights of our work
– Where we are going
• Where you come in
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-2
UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-3
UNCLASSIFIED

Conventional Warfare
The center of gravity is often the adversary’s military forces and political leadership
Irregular Warfare
The center of gravity is usually the indigenous population
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-4
Understanding the physical terrain is key
Understanding the social & cultural terrain is key
Regular forces of nation states that are separate and distinct from the civilian population
Focus on the kinetic destruction of the adversaries warfighting material from stand-off distances
UNCLASSIFIED
Often, irregular state forces or non-state networks embedded within civilian population
Focus on non-kinetic influence of local and regional populations requiring face-to-face interaction

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UNCLASSIFIED

Building Security Capacity of Partner States (BSC)
• Whole-of-Government activities that directly support the development of the capacity and capability of foreign security forces and their sustaining institutions.
• HSCB-sponsored technologies support most of the top 10 enabling technologies for BSC:
1. Immersive and Mixed Reality Simulations
2. Information Sharing
3. Human Socio-cultural Multi-scale, Hybrid, and Federated Modeling
4. Adaptive Planning & Assessment Tools
5. HSC Knowledge Management Enterprise
6. Human Language Technology
7. Social Networking Tools and Methods
8. Geo-spatial Information and Services
9. Knowledge Visualization
10. Interactive Language Training Tools
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UNCLASSIFIED

• Soldier as cultural chameleon,
• Actionable estimation of 2 nd and 3 rd order effects across the PMESII spectrum
• Reliable forecasting of regional stability on a short time scale
• Routine exploitation of social media for intelligence, understanding and engagement, training, info sharing and collaboration
• Ability to track and shape viral communication across distributed dynamic social networks
• Data, technologies, and methods support a timely, relevant Data to Decisions process
• High fidelity “social radar”
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UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-8
UNCLASSIFIED

Changing
World
Dynamic
Threat Space
Evolving
Technology
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-9
DoD
Capabilities
DoD Industrial
Base
DoDfunded
INVEST WHERE WE MUST…
LEVERAGE EVERYTHING ELSE
DoD Core
Technologies
UNCLASSIFIED

•
•
•
•
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-10
UNCLASSIFIED

• Military processes and tasks in most domains are reflected in doctrine based workflows with associated tools
• Issue: Opinions in political/socio-cultural domains are easily challenged by informed personnel and senior decision makers
• Solution: Socio-cultural analysis must incorporate a environment that allows users to defend, explain, and bound conclusions and recommendations and point to the rigor that allowed their formulation.
• The environment must be:
– Warfighter responsive
– Focused on doctrine/process
– Driven by evidence
– Grounded in scientifically defensible data and theory
– Model-rich
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02/08/2011 Page-11
UNCLASSIFIED

DoD Strategic Planning Guidance FY2008-2013 Study recommended:
Increased FY08-13 S&T investment for HSCB capabilities
New BA4 investment to support product maturation and transition
Research, Science communities have identified highest priorities:
•
Theory Development
• Modeling Uncertainty
•
Data Collection Methods
•
Federated Models
•
Model Validation
• Tools and Infrastructure
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UNCLASSIFIED
•
Automated assessment of attitudes, networks, & strategic communication
• Automated detection of sentiment, bias, intention, deception
•
Prediction of adversary reactions
•
Gaming for virtual training and mission rehearsal
• Federated databases to inform dynamic network models
•
Open architecture platforms for interoperability

• The models of social science still are our best synthesis but …
– They are incomplete
– The translation of “raw” socio-cultural data from the real world into model parameters is unavoidably imprecise
– The translation of model results back to real-world implications is also imprecise.
• Unlike definitive physical models, deeply uncertain models cannot be used for making point predictions
We can use these models to explore and understand
Operational usage of these systems will entail a shift from seeking optimal decisions to seeking robust decisions – developing options that work across the broadest swath of plausible futures
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02/08/2011 Page-13
UNCLASSIFIED

•
•
•
•
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-14
Figure Source: Behavioral Modeling and Simulation, page 56.
UNCLASSIFIED

• COCOMs, HTTs, and other users have clearly stated needs for sociocultural awareness capabilities
• Need to run fast, do good systems engineering, and integrate technologies into needed capabilities
• COCOMs need 80% solution now
• Push for sustainment but in some cases capabilities might just be a one off and not go into a POR
• Important to focus on operational priorities, leveraging academia and industry, but
• Also important to be rigorous, with a solid foundation in scientifically valid basic and applied research (e.g. Minerva)
Innovation, speed, and agility
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-15
UNCLASSIFIED

Core sociocultural capability
Data and tools transference
Data and collection methods
Models scope and scale
Model integration across levels
Gap at individual soldier level
Governance of sociocultural R&D
2006
• Technical socio-cultural behavior capability drawn from academia, labs, industry
• No investment in resources to port or
Now
• OSD, Army TRAC, AF, Special Op,
AFRICOM, EUCOM and others have programs
• Increased DoD investments in data extend relevant data, knowledge and tools
• No data and collection methods to support understanding, models, tool development
• Models not broad enough to cover full collection, storage, and transference
• Data collection tools and methods emerging along with models and tools
• Strong progress being made in range of military operations, nor detailed enough to forecast behaviors at scale
• Limited capacity to support integrated modeling of strategic/operational/tactical hybrid modeling and integration of model output
• Requirement for integrated modeling not often articulated, but planning and operations
• No general use S&T to achieve the
‘language agile cultural chameleon’ soldier
• Sociocultural behavior R&D highly distributed with limited coordination and few DoD-wide solutions progress on numerous fronts
• Progress being made, but general use S&T solution for individual soldier remains long term
• Increasingly coordinated governance through major programs (HSCB, Minerva, SMA)
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02/08/2011 Page-16
UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-17
UNCLASSIFIED

•
•
– Understanding sociocultural dynamics of human behavior
– Building computational behavior models
– Improving data collection and management
– Defining HSCB competencies and training methods
– Developing tools for analysis and visualization
•
– Tackle hard problems with great research in theory building and modeling
– Ensure rigor through assessment and concrete metrics
– Transition to POR and warfighters in need
– Provide technology leadership across department
– Promote coordination and collaboration
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02/08/2011 Page-18
UNCLASSIFIED

• What factors influence religious extremism and support for secular politics, gender equality, and national identity?
• How are decisions made in illicit cross-border supply chains?
•
What narratives drive extremist behavior, and how can we better detect and track their use?
• How to leverage data mining to better predict insurgent activities?
•
How to find and analyze mission-relevant sentiment in multiple languages?
• Can online gaming be used to study behavioral models?
•
How can analytic systems visualize sociocultural factors and the attendant uncertainty?
• How do information and arguments propagate?
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-19
UNCLASSIFIED

Modeling
Visualization
Training
Data
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-20
Applied
Research
Develop and validate theoretical constructions, generate knowledge products, and develop generalizeable, quantitative models of socio-cultural factors
Advanced
Technology
Development
Develop and demonstrate tools and software to integrate models and information into existing systems
Develop common categorization of meta-information, and methods for depicting cultural information to support manual or automated analysis
Identify cross-cultural competencies across mission areas and personnel needs, and methods for flexible training of socio-cultural knowledge, skills, and abilities at tactical and operational levels
Improve strategies and methods for valid collection of socio-cultural data, especially in denied or difficult to penetrate areas.
Deliver visualization toolsets and integrate a common architecture visualization tool to enhance situational awareness and support decision making
Integrate and demonstrate training of cross-cultural competencies into existing training systems
Generate functional architectures for managing and disseminating data, information and analysis products.
UNCLASSIFIED
Component
Development,
Prototypes
Mature and deliver sociocultural modeling capabilities within existing
DoD systems
Mature and deliver software that will visually and digitally represent cultural factors within existing systems
Prototype cultural training tools and systems.
Demonstrate and prototype first generation system that operations analysts can use to rapidly map new data and optimize decision support models to that data

OSD HSCB OSD Phase I SBIR OSD Phase IISBIR
Cultural Behavioral Model
Docking
(6.2)
Modeling Strategic Contexts
(6.2)
Simulation of Afghanistan
Opium Economic Systems
(6.2)
Extremist Ideological
Influences on Terrorist
Decision Making (6.2)
US Special Operations
Command
(6.3)
Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent Groups
(6.2 )
Social and Cultural Model
Embedding Technologies
(6.2)
Cultural Influences on
Intertemporal Reasoning
(6.2)
Understanding RSM: Relief
Social Media
(6.2)
HSCB Modeling Decision
Support Framework (PRISM)
(6.4)
Analytics and Modeling
Identifying and Countering
Terrorist Narratives
(6.2)
Architecture to Support Socio-
Cultural Modeling
(6.2)
Modeling Outcomes of
Coordinated USG and NGO
Efforts (6.2)
Breadth-Depth Triangulation for V&V
(6.3)
Ethnic Conflict, Repression,
Insurgency and Social Strife
Model (ERIS) (6.3)
Turning Text into Behavioral
Processes and Public
Support (6.3)
Automated Network
Construction
(OSD SBIR)
Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting
(OSD SBIR)
Model Evaluation, Selection, and Application (MESA)
(6.3)
Automatic Bias Detection and
Ranking
(6.3)
Dynamic Meta-
Network Measures
(OSD SBIR)
A Cultural Architecture Generator for Immersion Training in Virtual
Environments (OSD SBIR)
Tactical Irregular Warfare
(IW) Analytic Capabilities
(6.3)
US Agency for International
Development
(6.3)
US Africa Command
(6.3)
Automated Discovery of
Insurgent Behavior
(6.3)
Neuromorphic Models of Human
Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB)
(OSD SBIR)
Social Network Analysis
Reach back Capability
(6.3)
US European Command
(6.3)
US Pacific Command
(6.3)
Modeling Information
Propagation for more Effective
Influence Operations (6.3)
Analytical Tools for
Local Economic Analysis
(OSD SBIR)
Data Generation
Competitive Adaptation in
Terror Networks
(6.2)
Mining Afghan Lessons From
The Soviet Era
(6.2)
Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations
(6.3)
In Situ Collection of Human
Social Cultural Behavioral Data
(OSD SBIR)
Cross-National Analysis of
Islamic Fundamentalism
(6.2)
Unifying Social Frameworks
(6.2)
HSCB Mobile Support to
HA/DR Operations
(6.3)
Visualization
Enhanced HSCB Visualization and Operational Decision
Support (6.3)
HSCB Modeling Visualization
Framework
(6.4)
Visualization Methods and Tools for HSCB Models
(OSD SBIR)
-
Training & Education
HSCB Training, Strategic
Direction and Requirement
Development (6.2)
Development and Assessment
Methods for Cultural
Capabilities (6.2)
Identifying Dynamic Environments for Cultural Competencies
(InDECCs) (6.2)
Enhancing Warfighter Cross-
Cultural Awareness
(6.3)
Commonsense Socio-Cultural
Models for Training
(6.3)
Task-Based Communications
Training System
(6.3)
Cultural Awareness for
Military Operations
(OSD SBIR)
Game-based Simulation for
Human, Social, Culture
Behavioral Training (OSD SBIR)
Using Serious Games for Socio-
Cultural Scenario Training
(OSD SBIR)
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-21
UNCLASSIFIED

• OSD10-HS1: Decision Superiority through Enhanced
Cultural Intelligence Forecasting
• OSD10-HS2: In Situ Collection of Human Social Cultural
Behavioral Data
• OSD10-HS3: Neuromorphic Models of Human
Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB)
• OSD10-HS4: Dynamic Meta-Network Measures
• OSD10-HS5: Visualization Methods and Tools for Human,
Social, Cultural, and Behavioral Models
• OSD10-HS6: Automated Network Construction
• OSD10-HS7: Analytical Tools for Local Economic Analysis
• OSD10-HS8: An Adaptive Cultural Trainer for Development of Cultural Aptitude in Warfighters
• OSD10-HS9: Developing and Modeling Social Networks inside Technology Poor Societies
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-22
UNCLASSIFIED

• Established wide-ranging portfolio of projects spanning 6.2 to 6.4 RDT&E levels with awardees from industry, academia, and government
• Developed partnerships with Programs of Record
• Engaged with Combatant Commands (COCOMs) and other operational users
• Organized three national conferences with diverse research and operational communities
• Provided operational support and tools transition for nearly all
COCOMs
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02/08/2011 Page-23
UNCLASSIFIED

• 56% of Principal
Investigators have Social and Behavioral Science degree(s)
• 30% have computer science or modeling/simulation background
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UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-25
UNCLASSIFIED

• Enhance situation awareness (SA)
– Perceive (monitor, model, visualize) more socio-cultural factors
– More accurately comprehend the meaning of a situation (because sociocultural factors are accounted for)
– Project a broader range of futures, providing more realistic account of
HSCB problems and scenarios
• Enhance option awareness (OA)
– Perceive more completely and with greater accuracy how available options for action perform across the landscape of plausible futures
– For each of the available options, better anticipate and distinguish which socio-cultural factors will lead to desired outcomes and which to undesired outcomes
– Increase ability to use these factors to create options, branches, and sequels that improve performance across the landscape of plausible futures
Models will explore SA/OA uncertainty, visualization will reveal distinctions, data will feed a wide range of models, and training will achieve agility
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-26
UNCLASSIFIED

Processes in place to independently verify and validate ongoing efforts based on project specific criteria
• Technical and Programmatic Reviews by PM at Project and Portfolio Levels
• Technical Performance Evaluation Events
• Transition Demonstration Events
• Wargames and Experimentation Events
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02/08/2011 Page-27
UNCLASSIFIED

• While the domain has limited clear requirements, numerous operational entities have begun use of relevant technologies
– USSOCOM – MISO and other
– USCENTCOM – AFPAK COE and Human Terrain Analysis Team
– AFRICOM – Serengeti
– USSTRATCOM JIOWC
– US Army TRADOC
– OSD CAPE
– ISAF
– USPACOM
– USJFCOM
– USEUCOM
– JIEDDO
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-28
UNCLASSIFIED

• Transition of HSCB data ingestion and modeling capabilities to US Special Operations Command
• Transitioning HSCB behavioral modeling capabilities to United States Army Training and Doctrine
Command (TRADOC) Analysis Center (TRAC) to support their cultural geography model and wargame
• Transitioned geospatial and social network analysis
HSCB capabilities to US Special Operations
Command, Pacific
• Prototyped use of automated techniques to rapidly extract persons, events, and sentiments in support of
USAFRICOM
• Supporting ISAF Joint Command Headquarters in
Kabul, Afghanistan.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-29
UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-30
UNCLASSIFIED

International
(TTCP, NATO, Smart
Power…)
DARPA
DoD
RDT&E
Minerva
AFRL
ARI
USMC
ONR
HSCB
TRADOC
Interagency
(State, DHS,
Intel)
USDI
Operation
(COCOMs, Services)
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-31
COLLABORATE ENGAGE COORDINATE INFORM
UNCLASSIFIED

•
•
•
•
•
• Congressionally Mandated User Group
•
•
– Focus2010 had over 600 participants from USG, academia, and industry
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-32
UNCLASSIFIED

• OSD-Policy
– Coordinating with Minerva Program
• Congressional Staff
– Engaged with congressional staff to define requirements of HASC/SASC requests
• ASD R&E Rapid Fielding Office
– Coordinating with strategic communication and SMA activities in ASD R&E RFO
• DTRA
– Assisted DTRA in development of HSCB relevant BAA
• Interagency (State, USAID, USG-C)
– Conducting outreach to senior executives at DOS to determine requirements and facilitate interagency cooperation
• International
– Engaging with TTCP and NATO on metrics and tools to support comprehensive approach to operations
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
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UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-34
UNCLASSIFIED

• The Office of Naval Research just released a Broad Agency
Announcement (BAA) requesting proposals for research sponsored through the HSCB Modeling Program.
• Topics:
– Data collection and management
– Multi-scale and hybrid modeling of regional and subregional stability
– Training methodologies
– Analysis and modeling of non-kinetic
COA
• Expected outputs for all projects:
– published research findings and data
– Methodologies and Designs
– training materials
– analytic frameworks, Ontologies, and/or taxonomies
HSCB Domains
• Expected outputs of advanced technology projects (in addition to above)
– prototype software
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-35
UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-36
UNCLASSIFIED

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02/08/2011 Page-37
UNCLASSIFIED

OBJECTIVE: Develop/integrate tools, models, processes, and skills necessary to implement and operate a social network reachback capability
HYPOTHESIS: Additional tools, models, processes, skills will assist
ISAF in the Request for Information (RFI) process
MILITARY RELEVANCE/OPERATIONAL IMPACT:
MITRE has been providing direct support to the ISAF since November
2009 . Based on this work and interaction, the need for SNARC was identified in June 2010 to address the Network Effects Cell’s need to collect information on social networks for the District Development
Program (DDP) . The HSCB Modeling program performers have been tasked to support this sponsor, and explore technology transition
TECHNICAL APPROACH:
MITRE: Transition focused technical leadership for integration of
HSCB research technologies in support of ISAF
LANL: Assess opium trade-based corruption, and the population’s perception and support for opium trafficking
Milcord: Bayesian influence model represents survey questions as nodes, computes relations among answers
NU: Study to determine the robustness of one centrality measure as the network is randomized (errors introduced)
UC Davis: Event analysis (IEDs) focused on key drivers (coalition activity) and relationship to socio-economic signatures
PERFORMERS: Los Alamos National Laboratory, Milcord
Northeastern University, University of California-Davis
SCHEDULE: (JUN 2010 – OCT 2011)
JUN 2010: Project kickoff with 4 HSCB performers
OCT 2010: Proof of concept demonstrated to ISAF including response to Network Effect Cell (the NEC) RFIs
Periodic meetings with ISAF to respond to RFIs
NOV 2010: As directed, engage with more HSCB performers
Starting Deliver Techniques, Tactics, and Procedures
JAN 2011: (TTPs) for selected HSCB tools, models
OCT 2011: Train the NEC analysts on selected HSCB capabilities
Product: Applying computational models to answering
ISAF information requests on 2-week cycles
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
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UNCLASSIFIED

•
•
•
•
•
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
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UNCLASSIFIED

NATIONAL & TACTICAL
SYSTEMS defenselink.mil
BUILD CAPACITY http://rtfministries.org/yahoo_site_admin/assets/images/multi
.333152129.jpg
PMESII
Effects
Measure
Effects
COA
Analys is
Socio-Cultural
Understandin g
US &
Partner
Objectives
HSCB
Modeling
&
Forecasti ng
Analyze
& Fuse
SC Data
Collectio n
PMESII
Effects PMESII
Effects
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
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UNCLASSIFIED
AWARENESS & DIME
DECISION MAKING defenselink.mil

Focus2011 Opening Remarks
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UNCLASSIFIED

• Modeling Strategic Contexts - Support analysis of international conflicts by providing rich models of strategic context
• Variations in Islamic Fundamentalism - Understand factors influencing religious extremism and support for secular politics, gender equality, and national identity
•
Simulation of Opium Supply Chain - Develop models of adaptive decision-making in illicit cross-border supply chains
• Socio-Cultural Modeling Architecture – Develop coherent, flexible, extensible data-to-model service oriented architecture for socio-cultural modeling and analysis
• Identifying and Countering Terrorist
Narratives Develop models and decision making tools that allow rapid assessment of terrorist propaganda and development of effective countermeasures
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UNCLASSIFIED

• Modeling Information Propagation - Aid influence operations by providing a model of information propagation that supports analysis of the effectiveness of arguments and media.
• Automated Discovery and Prediction of Insurgent Behavior - Leverage data mining to provide commanders with capability to predict insurgent activities and behaviors
•
Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations - Semantic
Answer Engine for the complex operations community to support modeling and simulation, training, and tactical decision-aid applications
•
Turning Text into Behavioral Processes and Public Support - Develop a next-generation automated (1) political event and (2) sentiment coder
• Irregular Warfare Analytic Capabilities - Provide analytic methods, models, and tools suites to support examination of impacts on operational environment (specifically, population) by reachback analysis teams and deployed analyst cells.
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UNCLASSIFIED

•
Transition of Analytic Tools - Facilitate transition of fusion cell analytic tools by creating a “Help” system the incorporates best practices heuristics and visualizations.
•
Skope Toolkit Enhancement - Enhance USSOCOM Skope’s Behavioral
Modeling Toolkit, to develop additional modular, web-enabled, flexible tools focused on discovery and characterization of non-obvious relationships among people, places, things.
• APERTURE - Design, develop and implement an open source interactive visualization framework and API.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
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UNCLASSIFIED

Significant increased emphasis on developing reusable models (10%)
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UNCLASSIFIED

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UNCLASSIFIED

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UNCLASSIFIED

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UNCLASSIFIED

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UNCLASSIFIED

Projects conducted by Small Businesses increased by 10%, projects conducted by Big
Businesses decreased by 9%
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
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UNCLASSIFIED

• Development of visualization tools and infrastructures that display hybrid data sources
• Development of a theory to support hybrid, generalizeable models which span the spectrum from tactical to operational to strategic.
• Development of technologies capable of leveraging extracted data (e.g. from surveys), processing the data, and validating it.
• Demonstration of distributed training technologies to speed the development of socio-cultural skills of coalitions in current military operations.
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UNCLASSIFIED

Socio-Cultural Modeling of Effective Influence (AFRL)
Cascading Effects Modeling (AFRL)
Collective Behavior and Socio-Cultural Modeling (AFRL)
Predicting Adversary Behavior (AFRL)
HSCB Basic and Applied Research (ARI)
Effects Measurement and Geospatial Services (USACE)
Marine Corps Intelligence Activity (USMC)
Program Manager Training Systems (USMC)
Affordable Human Behavior Modeling (ONR)
ONR HSCB Science (ONR)
Human Social Culture Behavior Modeling (DDR&E)
Joint Capability Technology Demonstration (DDR&E)
Strategic Multilayer Analysis (DDR&E)
Minerva Research Initiative (OSD)
Social Science Research & Analysis (USDI)
Multidisciplinary University Research Initiative (OSD)
Integrated Crisis Early Warning System (DARPA)
Applications of Social Computing (DARPA)
Strategic Communication Assessment & Analysis (DARPA)
Conflict Modeling, Planning & Outcomes Experimentation (DARPA)
Socio-Cultural Dynamics Initiative (DIA)
Behavioral/Social Sciences Research Program (DIA)
Social-Science Research for Anticipation & Reduction of WMD (DTRA)
ATHENA (TRISA)
Human Terrain System (TRADOC)
Social Dynamics Awareness (JIEDDO)
Socio-Cultural Behavior R&D (COCOMs)
Social/Behavioral Dimensions of Security, Conflict, Cooperation (NSF)
Socio-Cultural Content in Language (IARPA)
Reynard (IARPA)
Data & Theory
Building
Model &
Software
Development
Model Building
Resources &
V&V
Integration &
Systems
Development
Training &
Mission
Rehearsal
Operational Use
& Transition
AFRL: AIR FORCE
RESEARCH LAB; ARI:
ARMY RESEARCH
INSTITUTE;
COCOMS: US
COMBATANT
COMMANDS; DARPA:
DEFENSE
ADVANCED
RESEARCH
PROJECTS AGENCY;
DIA: DEFENSE
INTELLIGENCE
AGENCY; DTRA:
DEFENSE THREAT
REDUCTION
AGENCY; IARPA:
INTELLIGENCE
ADVANCE
RESEARCH
PROJECTS AGENCY;
JIEDDO: JOINT
IMPROVISED
EXPLOSIVE DEVICES
DEFEAT
ORGANIZATION;
NSF: NATIONAL
SCIENCE
FOUNDATION; ONR:
OFFICE OF NAVAL
RESEARCH;
TRADOC: TRAINING
AND DOCTRINE
COMMAND; TRISA:
TRADOC
INTELLIGENCE
SUPPORT ACTIVITY;
USACE: ARMY
CORPS OF
ENGINEERS; USDI:
UNDER SECRETARY
OF DEFENSE FOR
INTELLIGENCE
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-52
UNCLASSIFIED

HSCB Portfolio Overview
Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences
Mastery of the social, cultural and cognitive factors that optimize the warfighter’s ability to influence human behavior across the full spectrum of military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow dylan.schmorrow@osd.mil
RECENT TRANSITIONS
Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations (E&D)
(OSD)
ISAF Support
Technology Investment
Areas
Data Generation
T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR
Intel STO-5: Exposing hidden enemy networks, anticipating and influencing behavior
NECC BP/shape 8.2-4: Operational
Data Collection
TEAM
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
Mining Afghan Lessons from the Soviet Era
ISAF Support: COIN Training
Center
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-53
UNCLASSIFIED
PROJECTS
Competitive Adaptation in Terror
Networks
(6.2)
Mining Afghan Lessons From
The Soviet Era
(6.2)
Cross-National Analysis of
Islamic Fundamentalism
(6.2)
Unifying Social Frameworks
(6.2)
Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex Operations
(6.3)
In Situ Collection of Human
Social Cultural Behavioral Data
(OSD SBIR)
HSCB Mobile Support to HA/DR
Operations
(6.3)
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR

HSCB Portfolio Overview
Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences
Technology Investment
Areas
Analytics and Modeling
T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR.
Mastery of the social, cultural and cognitive factors that optimize the warfighter’s ability to influence human behavior across the full spectrum of military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow dylan.schmorrow@osd.mil
TEAM
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
Intel STO-5: Exposing hidden enemy networks, anticipating and influencing behavior
RECENT TRANSITIONS
Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent Groups
(OSD) (D&I)
JFCOM
Modeling Strategic Contexts
(OSD) (D&I)
EUCOM Social Science
Research and Analysis (SSRA)
.
Simulation of Afghanistan
Opium Economic Systems
(D&I) (OSD)
ISAF Support
Modeling Outcomes of
Coordinated USG and NGO
Efforts (D&I) (OSD)
TRAC Irregular Warfare
Wargame
NECC BA/ISR 2.1-14: Expose Enemy
Networks, and Anticipate or Influence
Their Behavior
NECC BP/Shape 8.2-1: Civil
Information Management for Civil
Military Operations
NECC BP/Shape 8.2-2: Cultural and
Language Proficiency Tools
NECC BP/Shape 8.2-3: Influence and
Effects Measurement Tools
NIWO: Advanced Predictive Tools for
Battlefield Effects
NIWO: Exposing Hidden Enemy
Networks, Anticipating and Influencing
Behaviors
NIWO: Operationally Adaptive
OPFORIntel STO-5: Exposing hidden enemy networks, anticipating and
.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-54
UNCLASSIFIED
Cultural Behavioral Model
Docking
(6.2)
Modeling Strategic Contexts
(6.2)
Simulation of Afghanistan
Opium Economic Systems
(6.2)
Extremist Ideological Influences on Terrorist Decision Making
(6.2)
Identifying and Countering
Terrorist Narratives
(6.2)
Architecture to Support Socio-
Cultural Modeling
(6.2)
Ethnic Conflict, Repression,
Insurgency and Social Strife
Model (ERIS) (6.3)
Turning Text into Behavioral
Processes and Public Support
(6.3)
PROJECTS
Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent Groups
(6.2 )
Social and Cultural Model
Embedding Technologies
(6.2)
Cultural Influences on
Intertemporal Reasoning
(6.2)
Understanding RSM: Relief
Social Media
(6.2)
Modeling Outcomes of
Coordinated USG and NGO
Efforts (6.2)
Breadth-Depth Triangulation for
V&V
(6.3)
Model Evaluation, Selection, and Application (MESA)
(6.3)
Automatic Bias Detection and
Ranking
(6.3)
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR

HSCB Portfolio Overview
Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences
Mastery of the social, cultural and cognitive factors that optimize the warfighter’s ability to influence human behavior across the full spectrum of military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow dylan.schmorrow@osd.mil
TEAM
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
RECENT TRANSITIONS
Automated Discovery of Insurgent
Behavior (OSD) (D&I)
ISAF Support
.
Technology Investment
Areas
Analytics and Modeling
T&E STO-2: Learning OPFOR
NECC BP/Shape 8.203: Influence and
Effects Measurement Tools
USA ASTMP: Network Science
Research will provide an understanding of networks much more broadly and deeply, including human social networks
USA ASTMP: Human Dimension – The
Army leverages enhanced means to identify, access, retain, and develop
Soldiers with unsurpassed cognitive, physical, and social (moral and cultural) capabilities.
USA ASTMP: Soldiers are enabled by technology, cognitive, medical, and social sciences to achieve excellence in small unit competence and to dominate increasingly complex operational environments.
USA ASTMP: Soldiers are able to leverage technologies and processes that optimize and restore cognitive and physical performance.
Automated Discovery of
Insurgent Behavior
(6.3)
Tactical Irregular Warfare (IW)
Analytic Capabilities
(6.3)
US Agency for International
Development
(6.3)
US Africa Command
(6.3)
PROJECTS
Modeling Information Propagation for more Effective Influence
Operations (6.3)
Social Network Analysis Reach back Capability
(6.3)
US European Command
(6.3)
US Pacific Command
(6.3)
US Special Operations
Command
(6.3)
Automated Network
Construction
(OSD SBIR)
Neuromorphic Models of Human
Social Cultural Behavior (HSCB)
(OSD SBIR)
Algorithmic Behavior Forecasting
(OSD SBIR)
HSCB Modeling Decision
Support Framework (PRISM)
(6.4)
Dynamic Meta-
Network Measures
(OSD SBIR)
Analytical Tools for
Local Economic Analysis
(OSD SBIR)
A Cultural Architecture Generator for Immersion Training in Virtual
Environments (OSD SBIR)
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-55
UNCLASSIFIED

HSCB Portfolio Overview
Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences
Mastery of the social, cultural and cognitive factors that optimize the warfighter’s ability to influence human behavior across the full spectrum of military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow dylan.schmorrow@osd.mil
RECENT TRANSITIONS
Enhanced HSCB Visualization and Operational Decision
Support (D&I) (OSD)
Collaborative Security JCTD
(USAID); ISAF
TEAM
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
.
.
,
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-56
Technology Investment
Areas
Visualization
-
UNCLASSIFIED
PROJECTS
Enhanced HSCB Visualization and Operational Decision
Support (6.3)
Visualization Methods and Tools for HSCB Models
(OSD SBIR)
HSCB Modeling Visualization
Framework
(6.4)
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR

HSCB Portfolio Overview
Human, Social, Cultural and Behavioral Sciences
Mastery of the social, cultural and cognitive factors that optimize the warfighter’s ability to influence human behavior across the full spectrum of military operations.
OSD ASD R&E
MANAGER
CAPT Dylan Schmorrow dylan.schmorrow@osd.mil
RECENT TRANSITIONS
,
TEAM
Dr. Ivy Estabrooke
Deputy PM/Technical
Execution Agent
ONR
Mr. Dhiren Khona
Technical Execution
Agent
AGC
Shana Yakobi
Technical Execution
Agent
CTTSO
.
.
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-57
Technology Investment
Areas
Socio-Cultural
Training & Education
T&E STO-6: High Fidelity
Virtual Environment.
T&E STO-7: Automated Performance
Assessment
NIWO: Enhanced Cultural and Human
Terrain Capabilities
ATO-D: Learning With Adaptive
Simulation and Training
USA ASTMP: Soldiers and leaders require the ability to excel in a challenging and increasingly complex future operating environment
USA ASTMP: Future training and leader development must be completely adaptable and scalable to cover the full spectrum of operational challenges facing the Soldier
UNCLASSIFIED
HSCB Training, Strategic
Direction and Requirement
Development (6.2)
Identifying Dynamic Environments for Cultural Competencies
(InDECCs) (6.2)
Enhancing Warfighter Cross-
Cultural Awareness
(6.3)
Cultural Awareness for
Military Operations
(OSD SBIR)
Using Serious Games for Socio-
Cultural Scenario Training
(OSD SBIR)
PROJECTS
Development and Assessment
Methods for Cultural
Capabilities (6.2)
Commonsense Socio-Cultural
Models for Training
(6.3)
Task-Based Communications
Training System
(6.3)
Game-based Simulation for
Human, Social, Culture
Behavioral Training (OSD SBIR)
OSD HSCB
OSD Phase I SBIR
OSD Phase IISBIR

Projects
Plug and Play Cultural Avatars for Training
& Mission Rehearsal
– VCOM3D
Tyton/Canvas
– SPADAC
Transition Targets
US Army Special Operations Command (USASOC)/J.F.
Kennedy Special Warfare Center and School
(JFKSWCS)
USSOCOM Skope Cell, International Security
Assistance Force, DIA
International Security Assistance Force (ISAF)
Transition Status
Completed
Partially Complete
Partially Complete Simulation of Afghanistan Opium Economic
Systems – Los Alamos National Lab
Mining Afghan Lessons from Soviet Era
(MALSE) – Stanford (NPS)
Social Network Analysis Work
–
Northeastern University
TRADOC Analysis Center
– TRAC
International Security Assistance Force
– COIN CT
Training Center
Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF
TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
Partially Complete
Partially Complete
Partially Complete
Automated Discovery and Explanation Of
Adversarial Behavior
– UC Davis
Hybrid Knowledge Framework for Complex
Operations
– Milcord
Ethnic Conflict, Repression, Insurgency, and
Social Strife (ERIS) – NSI
International Security Assistance Force, TRAC Irregular
Warfare Tactical Wargame; AFRICOM; EUCOM
Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF; Milcord
SAVANT-HSCB/MIMEO
Analytics
– Charles River
USSOCOM/PM Military Information Support Operations
(MISO); Joint Military Information Support Command
(JMISC); TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
USSOCOM/PM Military Information Support Operations
(MISO); Joint Military Information Support Command
(JMISC); TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-58
UNCLASSIFIED
Partially Complete
Partially Complete
Partially Complete
Partially Complete

Projects
Rhetoric-Based Modeling of Insurgent
Groups
– University of Washington APL
Identifying and Countering Terrorist
Narratives – Arizona State University
JFCOM
Transition Targets
MCIOC POR; EUCOM
Enhanced HSCB Visualization and
Operational Decision Support – SAE
Collaborative Security JCTD (USAID); ISAF
Modeling Outcomes of Coordinated USG and NGO Efforts
– eCrossCulture
TRAC Irregular Warfare Tactical Wargame
Commonsense Socio-Cultural Models for
Culture Training in Serious Games
– Alelo
PMTRASYS, Operational Language and
Culture Training System (OLACTS)
Modeling Strategic Outcomes
– University of Chicago
EUCOM Social Science Research and
Analysis (SSRA)
Transition Status
In Progress
In Progress
In Progress
In Progress
In Progress
Planning
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-59
UNCLASSIFIED

Goal Transition Target
USSOCOM SKOPE Developed signature analysis and visualization toolkit
Instantiation of “Senturion” influence models for
PACOM/SOCPAC planning
Enhanced Web Monitoring System to allow manual annotation of sentiment and graphical depiction based on a user-defined template
USSOCOM SKOPE
USPACOM HQ
SOCPAC
Develop technologies necessary to enhance operation training US Army Special Operations
Command
AFRICOM Develop a prototype modeling capability provides insight into mass migration flow, and provides potential shaping for courses of action related to those flows
Develop models and procedures that yield geospatial trafficking insight that links activities to networks, and to time and physical space.
EUCOM
Assist in conducting the research and development necessary to implement a fully representative shura for a district and identify the religious leadership in each provincial & district government & their assessed influence
ISAF
Transition Status
Complete
Complete
Complete
Complete
In Progress
In Progress
In Progress
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-60
UNCLASSIFIED

Goal
Support influence operations by developing innovative extensions to existing tools
Transition Target
USSOCOM PSYOP/MISO
Monitor the spread of violent extremism across specified
AOR
USSOCOM Combating Violent
Extremism
Leverage innovations in data collection, mobile devices, and modeling to support participation in Joint Combined
Exercise and Training in the PACOM AOR
USPACOM MEC
Integrate social cultural models into infrastructure model and assist in development of technologies to support strategic communication
Development of technologies to support audience analysis and engagement
Engaging with USCENTCOM science advisor on
USCENTCOM predictive analysis requirements
Assist in solving the “data problem”. Develop the capabilities necessary to process social cultural data robustly and accurately.
Intelligence Community
Joint Forces Command
CENTCOM
Human Terrain Systems
Focus2011 Opening Remarks
02/08/2011 Page-61
UNCLASSIFIED
Transition Status
In Progress
In Progress
In Progress
In Progress
In Progress
Planning
Planning