Global Third-Party Logistics Market Trends & Analysis Website: www.3PLogistics.com About Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Founded in 1980 Supply Chain Market Research and Consulting Services Over 19,400 Newsletter Subscribers Current Market Research: Who's Who in Logistics and Supply Chain Management – Americas Who's Who in Logistics and Supply Chain Management – International Over 350 Detailed 3PL Profiles; 6,000+ 3PL Customer Relationships “The Business of Warehousing in North America – 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices” Targeted in-depth market research papers Articles & Press Coverage: American Shipper, Global Logistics & Supply Chain Strategies, Journal of Commerce, Logistics Management, Logistics Quarterly, Modern Materials Handling, Traffic World, Transport Topics, Wall Street Journal Consulting Services: Logistics Outsourcing, Benchmarking, Supply Chain Evaluation & Redesign, Strategic Planning, Mergers & Acquisitions, Expert Witness, Systems Evaluation & Selection Global Resources: U.S. Organization; Eric Xiang, Shanghai China; Latin America, Japan and South Korea Alliance Partners 2 Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. http://www.3plogistics.com/Site_Visits.htm A&A has reviewed over 100 distinct 3PL operations, some multiple times. 3 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. http://www.3PLAdvisor.com.htm Provider profile information and 3PL customer reviews 4 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Domestic and International Providers Connect the Global Supply Chain 3PL “Connectivity” Manufacturing Ports Distribution Centers Customers Transportation Services: Air Brokerage Operations Dedicated Contract Carriage Freight Forwarding Home Delivery Just-In-time (JIT) Less-than-Truckload (LTL) Repair Center TRANSPORTATION MANAGEMENT SERVICES Transportation Planning Transportation Execution: Carrier Mgmt and Contracting Contract File Maintenance Inbound Shipment Planning Exception handling Outbound Shipment Planning Load Tendering End-to-End Matching Loss/Damage Claims Mode Conversion/Optimization Tracking & Tracing Value-Added Services Call Centers Cross Docking Customization Inventory Control/Vendor Mgmt KanBan Kitting Labeling Sourcing Carriers Customs Suppliers Package Delivery Ocean Shipping Rail Rail TOFC/COFC Small Package Specialized Truckload Freight Bill Payment: Pre-Audit Post-Audit Performed In-house Outsourced Lot Control Merge In Transit Manufacturing Support Pick/Pack Pool Distribution Repair/Refurbish Returnable Container Mgmt Reverse Logistics Store Support Sequencing/Metering Specialty Packaging Sub Assembly OTHER 3PL SERVICES, SKILLS & HANDLING Consulting/Process Reengineering Purchase Order Mgmt Factoring/Financial Services Project Logistics Installation/Removal Quality Control Order Management Union Services Bulk Commodities Hazardous Materials Food Grade/Sterile Temperature Controlled 5 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top Global Fortune 500 Buyers of 3PL Services 49 53 51 42 42 41 39 35 36 32 31 30 30 6 29 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. US$ Billions Global 3PL Market Trends by Major Geographic Region Region / Year North America Europe Asia Pacific South America Remaining Countries 2006 $ 131.5 $ 143.6 $ 94.3 $ 10.4 $ 37.3 2007 $ 142.9 $ 170.1 $ 112.5 $ 15.4 $ 45.9 2008 $ 148.1 $ 171.3 $ 117.9 $ 16.2 $ 47.6 2009 $ 128.1 $ 162.3 $ 146.4 $ 27.6 $ 42.7 7 2010 $ 150.5 $ 145.7 $ 165.7 $ 33.3 $ 55.7 2011 $ 159.9 $ 160.4 $ 191.1 $ 39.5 $ 65.2 CAGR 4.0% 2.2% 15.2% 30.6% 11.8% ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 2011 Global Logistics Costs & 3PL Revenue (US$ Billions) Region Country North America Canada Mexico United States Region Europe France Germany Italy Netherlands Spain United Kingdom Others Region Asia Pacific Australia China Hong Kong India Japan Singapore South Korea Taiwan Others Region South America Argentina Brazil Venezuela Others Region Remaining Regions/Countries Total ¹CIA official exchange rate GDPs 2011 Logistics 2011 3PL 2011 GDP¹ (GDP %) Logistics Cost Revenue % 3PL Revenue 1,759.0 9.9% 174.2 8.4% 14.6 1,185.0 14.9% 176.6 6.5% 11.5 15,060.0 8.3% 1,249.8 10.7% 133.8 18,004.0 8.9% 1,600.6 10.0% 159.9 2,808.0 9.2% 258.3 10.1% 26.1 3,629.0 8.3% 301.1 10.1% 30.4 2,246.0 9.4% 211.2 10.6% 22.4 858.3 8.1% 69.5 14.2% 9.9 1,537.0 9.4% 144.4 9.4% 13.6 2,481.0 8.5% 210.9 10.0% 21.1 4,130.7 9.0% 371.8 9.9% 36.9 17,690.0 8.9% 1,567.2 10.2% 160.4 1,507.0 10.5% 158.2 9.9% 15.6 6,989.0 18.1% 1,265.0 7.0% 88.6 242.4 9.0% 21.9 11.4% 2.5 1,843.0 13.0% 239.5 5.7% 13.7 5,855.0 8.7% 509.6 8.8% 44.9 266.5 9.0% 23.9 11.7% 2.8 1,164.0 9.0% 104.7 11.1% 11.6 504.6 9.0% 45.5 11.0% 5.0 836.1 10.7% 89.4 7.2% 6.4 19,207.6 12.8% 2,457.7 7.8% 191.1 435.2 12.6% 54.9 6.0% 3.3 2,518.0 11.6% 292.1 8.2% 24.0 315.0 11.9% 37.5 5.9% 2.2 909.5 14.2% 129.1 7.7% 10.0 4,177.7 12.3% 513.6 7.7% 39.5 11,080.7 15.9% 1,761.8 3.7% 65.2 70,160.0 11.3% 7,900.9 7.8% 616.1 8 Adjusted for currency fluctuations, the global 3PL market grew by 4.9% from 2010 to 2011. Most global 3PL activity is within developed and developing geographic regions where services can be readily contracted for with providers. Physical infrastructure (roads, rail networks, shipping ports) and governmental regulation impact the logistics costs as a percent of overall economic activity in each country and region. Those countries with better infrastructure and fewer regulatory barriers have the lowest logistics costs as a percent of overall GDP. ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top 25 Global 3PLs – 2011 2011 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Gross Logistics Revenue Third-Party Logistics Provider (3PL) (US$ Millions)* DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding 32,160 Kuehne + Nagel 22,181 DB Schenker Logistics 20,704 Nippon Express 20,313 C.H. Robinson Worldwide 10,336 CEVA Logistics 9,602 UPS Supply Chain Solutions 8,923 Hyundai GLOVIS 8,588 DSV 8,170 Panalpina 7,358 SDV/Bolloré Logistics 6,785 Sinotrans 6,769 Toll Holdings 6,432 Expeditors International of Washington 6,150 DACHSER 5,925 Geodis 5,890 GEFCO 5,267 Norbert Dentressangle 4,980 UTi Worldwide 4,914 Hellmann Worldwide Logistics 4,687 Agility 4,410 Yusen Logistics 3,881 Wincanton 3,507 Caterpillar Logistics Services 3,465 GENCO ATC 3,372 9 3PL has been dominated by large European and U.S.based 3PLs. Growing Asia-Pacific 3PLs, like Toll Holdings are experiencing above average recent growth. The largest global 3PLs have operations in geographies representing over 90% of the world’s GDP. *Revenues are company reported or A&A estimates and have been converted to US$ using the average exchange rate in order to make noncurrency related growth comparisons. ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top 25 Global ITM/Freight Forwarders – 2011 A&A Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Gross Revenue (US$ Millions) DHL Supply Chain & Global Forwarding 32,160 Kuehne + Nagel 22,181 DB Schenker Logistics 20,704 Panalpina 7,358 CEVA Logistics 9,602 Nippon Express 20,313 Sinotrans 6,769 Expeditors International 6,150 SDV/Bolloré Logistics 6,785 UPS Supply Chain Solutions 8,923 DSV A/S 8,170 Kintetsu World Express 3,321 Agility 4,410 Hellmann Worldwide Logistics 3,593 Pantos Logistics 2,412 UTi Worldwide 4,914 Toll Global Forwarding 6,432 Damco International 2,752 Yusen Logistics 3,881 Geodis 5,890 C.H. Robinson Worldwide 10,336 Hyundai GLOVIS 8,588 Kerry Logistics 2,060 Sankyu 2,689 DACHSER 5,925 Provider Ocean Airfreight TEUs Metric Tons 2,724,000 2,447,000 3,274,000 1,073,000 1,763,000 1,149,000 1,310,000 848,000 783,378 550,000 706,441 656,797 7,979,000 397,200 892,682 786,620 750,000 520,000 500,000 862,000 727,861 262,362 550,377 1,131,444 550,000 490,000 672,569 439,720 1,625,098 216,653 484,000 410,000 520,000 145,000 750,000 110,000 450,000 337,130 420,000 210,000 262,117 50,000 466,318 17,408 620,000 173,000 710,000 18,060 321,000 50,000 *Revenues are company reported or Armstrong & Associates, Inc. estimates and have been converted to US$ using the average exchange rate. Freight forwarders are ranked using a combined overall average based upon individual rankings for gross revenue, ocean TEUs and airfreight metric tons. 10 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Transportation and Warehousing Services Dominate Demand Transportation Management 23.7% Warehousing 19.4% Value-Added TM or WM 18.7% 4,095 3,358 3,237 Integrated Solutions 9.7% International 7.9% Supply Chain Management 5.6% Dedicated Contract Carriage 4.5% Other 4.2% Intermodal 3.3% Lead Logistics Provider 3.0% 1,675 1,358 969 781 729 573 519 0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 Primary 3PL services provided are led by transportation management (23.7%), warehousing (19.4%) and value-added services (18.7%). 11 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 3PL Gross Revenue by Industry 2005-2012E – Fortune 1000 (US$B) Major Industry Growth Automotive Consumer Goods Elements Food, Groceries Healthcare Industrial Retailing Technological Other 2005-2011 CAGR 0.9% 4.7% 4.1% 6.5% 8.5% 7.1% 5.2% 5.3% 2.5% 2005-2012E CAGR 1.8% 4.6% 4.6% 6.3% 8.4% 8.0% 5.1% 5.3% 2.9% 12 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. U.S. 3PL Market 1996 – 2012E (US$ Billions) $150 $142.2 $140 $133.8 $130 1996 – 2011 CAGR = 10.3% $120 $119.0 $113.6 $110 Gross Revenue/Turnover $127.3 $127.0 $107.1 $103.7 $100 $89.4 $90 $76.9 $80 $71.1 $70 $65.3 $56.6 $60 $50 $45.3 $39.6 $40 $30.8 $34.2 $30 $20 $10 $0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Year The U.S. 3PL industry has experienced a strong rebound from the economic downturn in 2009. For 2011, 3PL growth has been three times the growth in U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). With Asia cooling and Europe in decline, estimated growth for 2011 is 5.1% and 6.3% for 2012. 13 Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Trends in 3PL/Customer Relationships % of Domestic Fortune 500 Companies using 3PLs 14 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Growth by 3PL Market Segment 3PL Market Segment Domestic Transportation Management International Transportation Management Dedicated Contract Carriage Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution Total % Change 2011 2011 Gross Revenue Net Revenue 1995-2011 2012E vs. 2011 Net Revenue (US$ Billions) (US$ Billions) CAGR 10.0% 41.3 6.3 11.6% 3.0% 46.1 17.7 15.0% 4.0% 11.1 10.9 7.5% 6.0% 34.0 26.6 14.3% 5.8% 130.8 61.0 12.3% (US$ Millions) Net Revenue Growth by 3PL Segment 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 13,000 11,000 9,000 7,000 5,000 3,000 1,000 ITM has been the Highest Growth Segment, but has cooled. VAWD is Maturing. DCC is Mature. 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution (VAWD) - Asset Based Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) - Asset15 Based Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. After-Tax Net Income Margin Trends by 3PL Market Segment 20% 2011 , 17.4% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 7.3% 6% 4.5% 4% 3.0% 2% 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Year Value-Added Warehousing & Distribution (VAWD) - Asset-Based Dedicated Contract Carriage (DCC) - Asset-Based International Transportation Management (ITM) - Non-Asset Based Domestic Transportation Management (DTM) - Non-Asset Based 16 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. U.S. DTM Network Transportation Managers Robust TMS for network transportation planning and execution Heavy EDI/electronic systems interfaces Some Buy/Sell side arrangements with a lot of Freight Under Management FUM = Freight Under Management, Managed Transportation Shipper may hold contracts with core carriers Shipper contracts with a 3PL which gets a management fee (5-7% GM) 17 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top 30 DTM/Freight Brokers Ranked by 2011 Net Revenue 8,740 CHRW is 40% of the total top 30 net revenue. 18 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 3PLs – Expanding Oil & Natural Gas Business in the Bakken Formation Bakken Formation, a Significant New Domestic Source of Oil and Natural Gas: • According to the 2008 United States Geological Survey, the Bakken Formation of the Williston Basin Province in Montana and North Dakota has estimated average undiscovered volumes of: 3.65 billion barrels of technically recoverable oil, Source: USGS 1.85 trillion cubic feet of associated/dissolved natural gas, and 148 million barrels of natural gas liquids. According to OilShaleGas.com, there are now over 6,000 active oil wells in the Bakken Formation with most activity in Montana and North Dakota. 19 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 3PLs – Expanding Oil & Natural Gas Business in the Bakken Formation BNSF Logistics Bakken Operations Logistics Support Case Study Example: • BNSFL manages up to 10 to 15 oil rig moves per month for multiple oil & gas exploration companies including Continental Resources and Brigham Oil. Each move requires approximately 30 days to relocate a rig from one location to another. To assemble a rig, 20 to 30 truckloads of materials and components are needed. Overhead cranes are required to unload larger rig components. To locally coordinate the oil rig moves, BNSFL opened an office in Williston, North Dakota last year. • To support natural gas fracking operations, BNSFL manages inbound transportation for multiple exploration/drilling companies to the drilling sites. Inbound materials include drilling pipe, pumping units, frac sand, and fracking chemicals. The frac sand is sourced domestically from mines in Illinois and Wisconsin and a small amount of “ceramic” sand is imported via ocean containers from China and Brazil. BNSFL supports frac sand moves with door-to-door ocean import services, rail to truck transload services and intermodal rail-truck deliveries. In 2011, BNSFL transloaded sand from 528 rail hopper cars to trucks for final delivery to drilling sites. BNSFL’s parent BNSF Railway delivered over 25,000 railcars of frac sand into the Bakken last year. 20 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Select 3PL Acquisitions Target Jacobson Companies EGL Chic Holdings Ltd. Christian Salvesen Geodis ABX Logistics IBM (internal global logistics ops.) YRC Dedicated Contract Carriage Summit Logistics International ATC Technology Corporation Total Logistic Control TDG Exel Transportation Services (Mode) Phoenix International EBIT* or EBITDA** Multiple Buyer Oak Hill Capital Apollo Management/CEVA Menlo Worldwide Logistics Norbert Dentressangle SNCF DSV A/S Geodis Greatwide Logistics Toll Holdings GENCO Ryder Norbert Dentressangle Hub Group C.H. Robinson Worldwide Year 2007 2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 Purchase Price ($M) Multiple 500 11** 2,200 14.5** 60 9* 519.4 6.7** 1,735 9.6* 1,160 8.5* 423 6.6** 34 13.6** 70.3 9.3** 512.6 6.6** 7** 200 320 5.8** 83 20.8* 635 12.5** Source: Primary, Company Information; Secondary, A&A Estimates 21 Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top 20 Dedicated Contract Carriage Providers – 2011 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 DCC Provider Power Units J.B. Hunt Dedicated Contract Services 4,639 Ryder Supply Chain Solutions 4,217 Greatwide Logistics Services 4,016 Swift Transportation 4,000 Schneider National 3,950 Werner Enterprises 3,400 Ruan Transport 3,309 Penske Logistics 2,600 NFI Transportation 1,770 U.S. Xpress Enterprises 1,750 Cardinal Logistics Management 1,620 UPS Freight Truckload 1,440 3PD 1,214 Exel (DHL Supply Chain - Americas) 1,100 C.R. England 852 Averitt Express 824 LINC Logistics 673 Landair 550 Aim Integrated Logistics 500 CRST Dedicated Services 500 22 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top North American Warehousing 3PLs by Millions Sq.Ft. Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Third-Party Logistics Provider (3PL) Exel (DHL Supply Chain - Americas) GENCO ATC Jacobson Companies Americold CEVA Logistics (The Americas) OHL Ryder Supply Chain Solutions Caterpillar Logistics Services Kenco Logistic Services UTi Worldwide UPS Supply Chain Solutions NFI Logistics Menlo Worldwide Logistics DSC Logistics APL Logistics (North America) Kuehne + Nagel (The Americas) Penske Logistics WSI Warehouse Services Saddle Creek DB Schenker Americas syncreon New Breed Logistics Schneider Logistics Kane Is Able Warehouse Space (in MMSF) 95.0 37.0 35.0 34.5 33.0 30.1 30.0 29.0 25.0 23.7 20.0 19.0 18.0 17.0 15.3 15.1 14.9 14.0 14.0 14.0 12.6 12.0 10.2 10.0 8.5 23 Most major North American valueadded warehousing and distribution (VAWD) 3PLs have national warehousing networks. ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Types of Warehouses Based on Use Profile Type of Warehouse Case/pallet picking/shipping Piece picking/shipping Manufacturing and production support Examples Retail and pool distribution centers Deconsolidation centers/cross-docks Flow-through centers Parts distribution High-value products Fulfillment Packaging Sequencing centers Postponement warehouses Repair/refurbishment Most Profitable Features Inbound and outbound transportation (LTL, TL, DSD) Need high-volume efficiency Products – number and value Labor intensity Value-adds Labor intensity Value-added opportunities Milk runs Required Labor Skill Level Low Moderate High Source: Armstrong & Associates, Inc. “The Business of Warehousing in North America – 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices” 24 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Warehousing Contract Lengths Source: Armstrong & Associates, Inc. “The Business of Warehousing in North America – 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices” Contract lengths tend to be longer for larger 3PLs. Three smaller companies reported over a third of their warehousing contracts had one year terms. For the other participants, 12.1% of contracts were one year, 57.6% were for three years, 25.3% were for five years and 5% had other terms. 25 ©Copyright 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Contract Warehouses by Size (n = 511) Source: Armstrong & Associates, Inc. “The Business of Warehousing in North America – 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices” 26 Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Value-Added Warehousing Services Source: Armstrong & Associates, Inc. “The Business of Warehousing in North America – 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices” 27 Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Annual Revenue from Contract Warehousing Customers Yearly Contract Value Range < $100K $100K - $499K $500K - $999K $1M - $4.9M $5M - $9.9M $10M - $14.9M $15M - $19.9M $20M or > % of Total 1.1% 12.2% 12.5% 49.1% 11.1% 6.8% 1.8% 5.4% (Sample, n = 302) Source: Armstrong & Associates, Inc. “The Business of Warehousing in North America – 2012 Market Size, Major 3PLs, Benchmarking Costs, Prices and Practices” Customer Contract Highlights: Customers have one to twenty-three locations. 25% of customers have contracts involving multiple locations. The average (mean) customer utilizes 384,000 square feet of warehouse space. The average (mean) revenue is $4.9M and the median is $2.4M (from $37,000 to $47M per year.). 28 Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Top 25 Mexican Motor Carriers – 2011 Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 Motor Carrier Autotransportes de Carga Tres Guerras S.A. de C.V. Transportes Castores de Baja California S.A. de C.V. Auto Líneas América S.A. de C.V. Transportes Julián de Obregón S.A. de C.V. Transportistas Unidos Mexicanos Div. Nte. Transportadora Nacional S.A. de C.V. Transportes Cuauhtémoc S.A. de C.V. Frialsa Logística S.A. de C.V. Auto Líneas Regiomontanas, S.A. de C.V. Servicio de Transportacion Jaguar Grupo TMM / Lacto Comercial Organizada S.A. de C.V. Grupo Transportes Transportes Pitic, S.A. de C.V. Express Tres Fronteras S.A. de C.V. Transportes Quintanilla S.A. de C.V. Grupo MG Transportadora Egoba S.A. de C.V. Transportes Especializados Antonio de la Torre e Hijos, S.A. de C.V. Transportes Comandos del Norte S.A. de C.V. Transportes de Nuevo Laredo S.A. de C.V. Transportes Lar-Mex, S.A. de C.V. Transportes Auto Tanques Ochoa S.A. de C.V. Transportes Fema S.A. de C.V. Fletes Internacionales Coss S.A. de C.V. Express Anáhuac S.A. de C.V. 29 Gross Revenue (US$ Millions) 220 210 172 165 143 138 129 129 99 90 87 86 80 72 66 65 63 62 60 59 54 54 53 52 49 Copyright © 2012 Armstrong & Associates, Inc. Thank You! Milwaukee Wisconsin Office Evan Armstrong Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 10401 West Lincoln Avenue Suite 207 West Allis, WI 53227 USA 414-545-3838 Stoughton Wisconsin Office Richard Armstrong Armstrong & Associates, Inc. 100 Business Park Circle Suite 202 Stoughton, WI 53589 USA 608-873-8929