Voter Turnout in 2008 Presidential Election
• 61.7%
• 132.5 million
Who Voted in 2008?
• What are benefits of
•
voting?
What are costs of voting?
• 2004 Presidential Election
• US Census Bureau,
• Voting and Registration in
the Election of November
2004
Education
% reported voted
.Advanced degree
77.4
.Bachelor's degree
72.6
.Some college or
associate degree
66.1
.High school
graduate
52.4
.9th to 12th grade, no
diploma
.Less than 9th grade
34.6
23.6
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Income
74.1
45.2
36.5
77.8
78.3
68.1
62.3
54.3
49.4
39.1
Age
% reported voted
.75 years and over
66.7
.65 to 74 years
70.8
.45 to 64 years
66.6
.25 to 44 years
.18 to 24 years
52.2
41.9
Race
White
60.3
56.3
Black
Asian
Latino
29.8
28
Employment Status
..Government
Workers
75.2
..Self-employed
64.2
.Civilian labor force
59.3
..Private Industry
56.7
.Not in labor force
56.2
..Unemployed
46.4
Who Votes?
• Socioeconomic Status (SES) Explanation
– voters with higher income and education have the
civic skills to understand the value of voting, the
difference between the candidates.
– Policy Implication
Educate & Inform
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections
81
84
82
80
70
64
60
57
50
60
51
61 62
56 55
54 54
59.6
56
50
50 50.9
18
36
18
68
18
84
18
96
19
00
19
0
19 8
1
19 9
3
19 2
36
19
48
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
7
19 6
80
19
8
19 4
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
% of Americans Voting in National Elections
% voting
55.0%
50.0%
50.2%
50.7%
49.8%
45.0%
40.0%
35.4%
35.0%
34.0%
20
00
19
98
19
96
19
94
19
92
30.0%
Voter Turnout in LA Gubernatorial Elections
80.0%
62.0%
1983
57.0%
1987
56.0%
1991
1995
Vote for the Crook, It’s Important
Turnout by Blue Collar Workers
100%
90%
79%
80%
55%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Sweden
Germany
US
Average % Voting in National Elections, last 6 election cycles
Switzerland
54
US
54
Russia
61
Japan
71
Britain
75
France
76
Portugal
79
Costa Rica
81
Greece
86
Germany
86
Bulgaria
80
Denmark
87
Italy
90
Australia
95
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
SES Explanation
• description or explanation
• Alternative Explanations
• Policy Implications
• Political considerations
– Change the rules, change the electorate
– Change the electorate, change the outcomes
– Elected officials make the rules
Voter Registration
Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections
81
84
82
80
70
64
60
57
50
60
51
61 62
56 55
54 54
59.6
56
50
50 50.9
18
36
18
68
18
84
18
96
19
00
19
0
19 8
1
19 9
3
19 2
36
19
48
19
60
19
64
19
68
19
72
19
7
19 6
80
19
8
19 4
88
19
92
19
96
20
00
20
04
90
85
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
40
Percent registered (Citizen 18+)
MAINE
SOUTH DAKOTA
MISSOURI
DISTRICT OF
MICHIGAN
RHODE ISLAND
WISCONSIN
VERMONT
MARYLAND
OHIO
WASHINGTON
OKLAHOMA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
ILLINOIS
DELAWARE
TEXAS
VIRGINIA
KANSAS
IDAHO
SOUTH CAROLINA
GEORGIA
TENNESSEE
WEST VIRGINIA
CALIFORNIA
UTAH
HAWAII
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
Policy Implications
• Same Day/Election Day Registration (MN,
WI, NH, ID, ME, WY)
• Motor Voter Registration
Same Day/Election Day Registration
% Voting 2004
100
60
58.3
58.7
US
ID
66
68.9
WY
NH
72
73
ME
WI
76.7
20
-20
•(MN, WI, NH, ID, ME, WY) 5 of 7 top states in turnout
MN
% Report Registered
.Advanced degree
.Bachelor's degree
.Some college or associate
degree
.High school graduate
.9th to 12th grade, no
diploma
.Less than 9th grade
25.0
50.0
Source: US Census, US Population Survey, 2004 Presidential
Election
75.0
100.0
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% Not registered
60.0
50.0
40.0
30.0
20.0
50.5
51.0
46.1
41.9
37.1
30.2
24.4
20.6
17.8
17.4
10.0
0.0
Least likely to be registered
• Young, mobile, less affluent, minority
• Ohio- just adopted same day voter
registration
– 490,000 college students
– Democratic Secretary of State Jennifer
Brunner
93
65
61
55
39
32
32
4
Young (18-29)
60+
BLACK
McCain
Obama
Source: Young voters,USA TODAY/MTV/Gallup Poll, Sept. 18-28,
60+, Black, Latino, Sep 13, Gallup
LATINO
Bush
86
57
56
44
42
13
White (70%)
African American (12%)
Source: CNN Exit Polls, 2004 Presidential
Election
Latino (15%)
Kerry
Motor Voter Registration
• register by mail, applying for a driver's
license, at all offices that provide public
assistance
Impact of Motor Voter
• “We find little evidence that early voting
reforms increase turnout with the
exception of VBM in Oregon, and then
only in presidential elections. In midterm
elections, none of the reforms has a
statistically significant impact on
turnout….”
Too Many Elections
• 521,000 elected offices
• National, state, local, school, library,
referendums
• ..\..\toomanyelections.xls
Reason for Not Voting (% of answers)
Bad weather conditions
Transportation problems
Inconvenient polling place
Registration problems
Forgot to vote
0.6
2
2.5
3.9
5.7
Don't know or refused
7.2
Did not like candidates
7.3
Other reason
Out of town
Not interested
Illness or disability
Too busy
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current
Population Survey, November 2006
9.1
10.7
11.5
12.4
27.3
Why hold elections on Tuesday?
• National Holiday
• Mail-in Voting
Electoral System
• US- first past the post system
• Europeans- proportional representation
• Consequences
– fosters 2 parties
– hurts smaller parties
– No pro-life party, green party, or African American
party
– 148 candidates in CA recall election = 70% turnout?
Lack of Mobilization
• 1876-1896, turnout in presidential
elections averaged 80%
• Now, Unprecedented GOTV- 59%
• Does it matter if you vote in New York,
Texas, or California?
Voter ID Laws
• GA- voters to present either a driver's
license or a state-issued photo ID 2005
– 35$ available at DMV
Milwaukee Black Voters League Flier
• “if anyone in your family has ever been
found guilty of anything, even a traffic
violation, you can't vote in the presidential
election. If you violate any of these laws
you can get ten years in prison and your
children will get taken away from you."
2004
Felon
Disenfra
nchisem
ent
But…
Is Internet or E-Voting the
solution to declining turnout?
Costs v. Benefits of Voting
• Costs
– Registration
– Hassles
– Information
========
Solutions
1. Easier registration
2. E vote, mail in ballots
3. Group mobilization
4. Fewer elections
• Benefits
– Psychic
– Policy
Solutions
1. Minority voters
2. Conservatives in 98’
3. Reduce cynicism
about politics
4. Vote matters
Should we be concerned that
only 50.7% of Americans
voted?
low turnout NOT a problem
• reflects contentment
• George Will “As more people are nagged
to the polls, the caliber of the electorate
declines.
• no difference between voters and nonvoters preferences
• What happens with record turnout?
2 Recent High Turnout Elections
2003 CA Recall Election
1998 MN Gubernatorial Race
Low Turnout IS a problem
% Reporting Voting in 2000
• Voting pool is
80
70
unrepresentative of
nation
– HMO bill of rights vs
uninsured
64
60
67.6
55
50
43.7
40
28.4
30
24.2
20
10
0
18-20
21-24
25-34
35-44
45-64
65+
% Reporting Voting in 2000
% Reporting Voting in 2000
80
72
70
60
56.4
53.5
60.3
50
60
49.4
50
40
40
30
33.6
27.5
30
26.8
20
20
10
10
0
0
8 years or less
HS 1-3 years
4 years
Some college
BA or more
White
Black
Hispanic
Decline of Social Capital 19701995
Worked for political
7% 2.8%
party
Served as officer in club 10% 6%
Attended Church
42% 36%
Member of Institute of
Architects
Entertained at home
41% 28%
Bowled in a league
69/ 31/
1000 1000
14
9
TV Usage: “TV is my primary
form of entertainment”
Strongly
Agree
4.1
Strongly
Disagree
9.1
Letters written
12
18
Club meetings
5
9
1.5
3
3
1.4
Volunteered
Worked on
community project
Gave finger to
another driver