Chronic Absence:
The Earliest Early Warning Sign of
Academic Risk
October 21, 2011
Hedy Chang
Director, Attendance Works
Co-Chair, Chronic Absence & Attendance Partnership
1
Defining Key Terms

Average Daily Attendance: The percentage of
enrolled students who attend school each day.
 Satisfactory Attendance: Missing 5% or less of
school in an academic year.

Chronic Absence: Missing 10% or more of school in
an academic year for any reason—excused or
unexcused.

Severe Chronic Absence: Missing 20% or more days
of school per year – approximately two months of
school.

Truancy: Typically refers only to unexcused absences
and is defined by each state. In CA, it is missing 3 days
of school without a valid excuse, or being late to class 3
times without a valid excuse.
2
When 90% Doesn’t Earn an “A”
Students Who Miss More Than 10% Of
School Are At Grave Risk
0-90%
Chronic Absence
(=>10% absence)
91-94%
Warning Signs
(<10% but >5% absence)
95 %+
Satisfactory Attendance
(=<5% absence)
Emergency: =>20% absence
3
Students Chronically Absent in
Kindergarten & 1st Grade Much Less
Likely to Read Proficiently in 3rd Grade
Percent Students Scoring Proficient or Advanced on 3rd Grade
ELA Based on Attendance in Kindergarten and 1st Grade
100%
80%
64%
60%
43%
41%
40%
17%
20%
0%
No attendance risks
No risk
Small risk
Moderate risk
High risk
Small attendance risks
Moderate attendance risks
High attendance risks
Missed less than 5% of school in K & 1st t
Missed 5-9% of days in both K & 1st
5-9% of days absent in 1 year &10 % in 1 year
Missed 10% or more in K & 1st
4
Source: Applied Survey Research & Attendance Works (April 2011)
The Long-term impact of Chronic
Kindergarten Absence Is Most
Troubling for Poor Children
5th Grade Math and Reading Performance By K Attendance
Average Academic Performance
52
50
48
46
Reading
Math
44
42
40
0-3.3% in K
3.3 - 6.6% in K
6.6-10.0% in K
>=10.0% in K
Absence Rate in Kindergarten
Source: ECLS-K data analyzed by National Center for Children in Poverty (NCCP)
Note: Average academic performance reflects results of direct cognitive assessments
conducted for ECLS-K.
5
Chronically Absent 6th Graders Have
Lower Graduation Rates
Dropout Rates by Sixth Grade Attendance
(Baltimore City Public Schools, 1990-2000 Sixth Grade Cohort)
Severely
Chronically
Absent
Chronically
Absent
Not
Chronically
Absent
6
Source: Baltimore Education Research Consortium SY 2009-2010
9th Grade Attendance Predicts
Graduation for Students of All
Economic Backgrounds
Need to recolor chart
Note: This Chicago study found attendance was a stronger
graduation predictor than 8th grade test scores.
Source: Allensworth & Easton, What Matters for Staying On-Track and Graduating in
Chicago Public Schools, Consortium on Chicago School Research at U of C, July 2007
7
Moving into Action Requires Knowing
If Chronic Absence is a Problem
Most Schools Only Track Average Daily Attendance and
Truancy. Both Can Mask Chronic Absence.
Variation in Chronic Absence for Schools with 95% ADA in Oakland, CA
20.0%
17.3%
18.0%
16.0%
14.2%
14.0%
12.4%
12.5%
12.0%
9.3%
10.0%
8.0%
6.0%
5.8%
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
8
.
Schools with 93% have significant
levels of chronic absence
20.0%
17.3%
18.0%
16.0%
14.2%
14.0%
12.4%
12.5%
12.0%
9.3%
10.0%
8.0%
5.8%
6.0%
4.0%
2.0%
9
0.0%
Emerging Data Shows High Levels
Over 14% (nearly 1 out of 7) are chronically absent
in Oakland Unified School District
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
K
1
2
2006-2007
3
4
5
2007-2008
6
7
8
2008-2009
9
10
11
12
2009-2010
GRADES
If the 5,421 students chronically absent in 09/10 had each
attended 6 more days, OUSD would have received more than
$1,147,000 in additional ADA.
10
Chronic Absence Found In Rural Not
Just Urban Communities
Percent of Students Who Are Chronically Absent
Del Norte County Unified School District
(SY 09-10 )
30%
28%
25%
25%
25%
21%
19%
20%
24%
18%
15% 15%
17%
16%
16%
15%
10%
11%
5%
0%
K
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Grades
8
9
10
11
12
1 out of 6 (16%) students were chronically absent.
11
Data is Needed for Identifying
Programmatic Solutions
 Chronic absence data (as well as other attendance
measures) should be examined by classroom, grade,
school, neighborhood or sub-population.
 If chronic absence is unusually high for a particular
group of students, explore what might be common
issues (unreliable transportation, community
violence, asthma and other chronic diseases, poor
access to health care, unnecessary suspension for
non-violent offenses, lack of engaging curriculum,
child care or afterschool programming, foreclosures,
etc.)
 If chronic absence is unusually low for a high risk
population, find out what they are doing that works.
12
12
Chronic Absence Disproportionately
Affects Students of Color
Los Angeles Unified School
District 2009-2010
Oakland Unified School
District 2009-2010
25%
23%
22.2%
21.3%
Ethnicity
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
13.6%
16.1%
13.1%
11.9%
11.8%
9.5%
6.7%
6.0%
9.6%
4.7%
6.1%
Middle
High
African American
Hispanic
Asian
Other Race
White
% Students
with 91%
Attendance
or Below
467
22.6%
ASIAN
2,909
7.6%
BLACK
15,341
26.6%
HISPANIC
72,733
16.1%
8,621
15.8%
PACIFIC
ISLANDER
316
18.4%
FILIPINO
58
8.2%
100,445
16.6%
WHITE
3.7%
Elementary
AMERICAN
INDIAN
# Students with
91% Attendance
or Below
Total
13
Elementary Absenteeism
Concentrated in W. Oakland
14
Middle School Absenteeism
15
Patterns Change Substantially By
High School
16
Variation Helps Identify Good Practice
and Need for Intervention
Chronic Absence Levels Among Oakland Public Schools
17
Schools + Communities CAN
Make a Difference
Characteristics of Successful Attendance Initiatives

Partner with community agencies to help families carry out
their responsibility to get children to school.

Make attendance a priority, set targets and monitor progress
over time.

Engage parents and students in identifying and addressing
school, family, and community issues that contribute to
chronic absence.

Clearly communicate expectations for attendance to
students and families.

Begin early, ideally in Pre-K.

Combine targeted interventions with universal strategies that
nurture an engaged learning environment, build a culture of
attendance and ensure physical health and safety at school.

Offer positive supports before punitive action.
18
Increased Attendance Involves a
3-Tiered Approach that Fits with Most
Reform Efforts
High
Cost
Students who are chronically
absent & habitually truant
Recovery
Programs
Students at-risk for
poor attendance
and/or with rising
absence rates
All students
in the school
Intervention
Programs
Universal/Preventative
Initiatives and Programs
5-15%
of a school’s
students
15-20%
of a school’s
students
65-100% of
a school’s
students
Low
Cost
19
Improving Attendance Takes an CrossDisciplinary Approach
Universal Attendance Supports









Safe and supportive school environment
Inviting and engaging classroom environment
Intentional family involvement and participation
On-going attention to attendance data
Rapid parent contact for unexplained absences
Recognition for good and improved attendance
Collaboration with afterschool programs and early
childhood programs to build a culture of attendance
Increased access to school based health supports
A school plan and budget that reflects high
attendance priorities
Individual Assessments and Intervention



Refer chronically absent/ truant students for intervention including SART &SARB
Identify and remove barriers
Provide on-going support
Recovery Strategies



Interagency Staffing
Case management and wrap-around services
Referral as last resort for court -based intervention
20
Baltimore Student Attendance Work
Group adapted from Scott Perry,
Attendance Audit, Oregon
Considerations for Older Youth







Attendance is more heavily influenced by the youth
although family still matters.
Older youth may miss school due to family responsibilities
( e.g. caring for siblings or ill parent, holding a job).
Mental health, teen pregnancy, chronic conditions, and
dental disease are top health concerns that affect
attendance
Safety issues (In-school and community) play even
greater role.
Students miss school due to suspensions for non-violent
behaviors.
Students become discouraged as they fall behind in
credits and graduation feels increasingly unattainable.
Direct and meaningful engagement of youth in the
classroom and activities on campus even more essential.
21
Hedy Chang, Director
www.Attendanceworks.org
22