Neighbourhood Renewal – Lisburn February 2011
DCS John Carnochan QPM FFPH
Scottish Violence Reduction Unit

The Plan
• Violence Reduction – It’s not easy
• Public Health – A useful Lens
• Early Years – Could it be Magic ?
• David’s Story – Knew that would happen!!
• The Evidence – Too much ?
• The Challenges – To be Overcome

“ The challenges we face converge, intertwine and often remain largely beyond our understanding . Most of us suspect that the “experts” don’t really know what’s going on and that as a species we’ve released forces that are neither managed nor manageable .”
Thomas Homer-Dixon
(Paper by Prof Phil Hanlon University of Glasgow 2009

Dispelling some myths
• First - We can
our way out of this
• Second - Victims and offenders are
groups
• Finally – There is a
and we know what it is

Violence – Context

Violence Reduction Unit
DEATHS BY VIOLENCE PER 100,000:
1 NORWAY
2 SPAIN/GREECE
1.0
1.3
16 NORTHERN IRELAND
22 ENGLAND AND WALES
29 ROMANIA
37 ALBANIA
40 SCOTLAND
42 UNITED STATES
44 ISRAEL
3.5
4.2
5.1
6.2
7.3
7.9
8.3
PEACE MONITOR 2004

The
“Interpersonal violence – violence between individuals in families and communities – is a problem.” public health
Etienne Krug
Director
Department of Injuries and Violence Prevention
World health Organisation
2004

Surveillance
Systematic data collection
Implement
Scale up and evaluate effective programmes
The
Identify risk / protective factors
Research why it occurs
Develop and evaluate interventions
Find out what works.

Injury Surveillance

Understand
of Violence
Two components to Violence:
• The propensity to be violent factors
• The triggers of violence -
factors
The Wave Report 2005 “Violence and what to do about it”

Farrington D.P. (2003). Key results from the first 40 years of the Cambridge Study in Delinquent
Development,.
Realising Britain’s Potential: Future Strategic Challenges for Britain. The Strategy Unit February
2008.

Deprivation

What do Employers
Percentage of Employers reporting an employee skill gap
Planning and organising
Customer handling
Problem solving
Team working
Oral communication
Other technical and practical skills
Written communication
Basic computer literacy / using IT
Strategic management
Advanced IT or software
Using numbers
Literacy
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
Future Skills Bar Chart. See Future Skills Scotland Website,
Employer Survey 2004, p27, fig 15.

Rates of Return to Human Capital
Higher Education
Preschool
Primary
Secondary

Early Intervention: Insuring for a better future.
Which one do we insure against future harm?
Which one do we assess on an annual basis?
Which one do we assess the person in control?
Which one do we ban unfit owners/users?
Which one is governed by most legislation?
Which one is the most important ?

Ecological Model = The Frame
Societal Community Relationship Individual
 Lack of punishment for pre cursor offences – knife carrying
 Lack of visible swift justice
 Links to deprivation
 Scottishness
 Inequality
 Cultural norms
 Legitimisation of violence
 Access to and use of alcohol
 Lack of aspiration
 Dependancy
 Tolerance
 Parenting
 Lack of knowledge
 Friends that engage in violence
 Prevalence of gang culture
 Violent families – siblings/parents
 Lack of significant adults/positive role model
 Lack of communication skills
 Poor behavioural control
 Impulsiveness
 Aggressive behaviour
 Lack of skills to deal with conflict
 Inability to judge risk
 Lack of “life” skills
 Exclusion from Services/Schools
 Nutrition Diet Health
 Alcohol
 Lack of employment opportunities

Seven main strategies to prevent violence

Safe stable and nurturing relationships
Early, primary prevention to avoid the development of violence such as child abuse and childhood aggression
– Parenting programmes
• Information & support for parents
– Parent & child programmes
• Preschool education, family support, child health services etc.
– Social support groups
• e.g. peer support for parents
– Media interventions
• e.g. raise awareness & knowledge of child maltreatment
Some strong evidence that parenting programmes and parent and child programmes can reduce child maltreatment and problem/aggressive behaviours in youth

Life skills
Cognitive, emotional, interpersonal & social skills to enable youth to deal with the challenges of everyday life
• Preschool enrichment
– Child skills, parent programmes
• Social development training
– Conflict resolution, perspective taking, anger management.
• Academic enrichment
– Study & recreation out of school
• Educational incentives
– E.g. finance for completing school
• Vocational Training
– Providing skills to find work
Some strong evidence that preschool enrichment and social development programmes can reduce aggression and improve social skills, particularly in at-risk youth

Challenges
• Vision
• Strategy
• Policy
• Operating Procedure
• Guidance
• People
• Attitudes
Difficult
Difficult

Northern Ireland’s Children and Young People
• Healthy
• Enjoying, learning and achieving
• Living in safety and with stability
• Experiencing economic and environmental well-being
• Contributing positively to community and society and
• Living in a society which Respects their rights.

birth
Purpose
Government Economic Strategy
LIFE JOURNEY
National Outcomes
SOAs
NATIONAL PERFORMANCE
10 16
18
Early Years Framework
NATIONAL POLICIES
Valuing our Young People
More Choices More Chances
Curriculum for Excellence
GIRFEC
Promoting Positive Outcomes (ASB)
YJ Framework
Road to Recovery (Drugs)
Equally Well (Health Inequalities)
Alcohol framework
Achieving our Potential (Poverty)

Challenges
• Wicked problem – Leaders not technicians
• Partnership in action – policy and Practice
• Outcomes not processes
• Public health inspired response
– Interdisciplinary Collaboration
– Evidence-led
- problem profile – outcome evaluation
– Prevention focused
- earlier, more effective intervention – further upstream
– Whole population - ecological model

Challenges
Joining up
– Coalition – Collaboration education, community….
Consensus
- health,
– Dilution - everyone’s a partner; no-one’s Responsible
– Outcomes – clear- defined – Shared
Scaling up
– Fragmented delivery landscape
– Territorialism – professional Gangs
– Lack of robust outcome Evaluation
– Resources – state of public finances – Opportunity ?
Wising up
– Leadership – out of the comfort zone –
Brave – Resilient
Adaptive –

Action that is informed by evidence and designed to deliver clear meaningful Outcomes
Research that is informed by and connected to practice
Clear, consistent,
Collaborative policy that hits the pavement.

“There is nothing more difficult to carryout, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to conduct than to initiate a new order of things.
For the reformer has enemies in all who profit by the old order and only lukewarm defenders in all those who profit by the new order”
Machiavelli, The Prince