Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“
of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger
Harvard University, July 26th, 2012
The „PISA shock“ of 2001 made education an issue of
national interest and triggered major policy changes
Germany
below
average
in all skills
dimensions
PISA
shock
2001
Huge social
dependency
and almost
¼ below
minimum
reading skills
Tackling increasing challenges:
a new diversity in German schools
Impressive
improvements
Structural policy reform:
no single success factor,
but many puzzle pieces
But also:
reasonable
fear of
throwbacks
and old
sloppiness
New transparency and empiricism:
competence standards and accountability
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 2
PISA ended a period of complacency and self-confidence
in Germany
Germany
below
average
in all skills
dimensions
PISA
shock
2001
Huge social
dependency
and almost
¼ below
minimum
reading skills
Tackling increasing challenges:
a new diversity in German schools
Impressive
improvements
Structural policy reform:
no single success factor,
but many puzzle pieces
But also:
reasonable
fear of
throwbacks
and old
sloppiness
New transparency and empiricism:
competence standards and accountability
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Seite 3
Ideology instead of accountability: German educational
policy has a difficult history with transparency
1960
1970
Two international comparative studies on student
achievements show very problematic results for
Germany. As a reaction, politics quits such studies.
Is the new
age of transparency
really
sustainable?
1970
2000
30 year of ideology (and no facts) in education:
excellence vs. equity,
one-tiered vs. multi-tiered school system, …
2000
2010/12
PISA ends a period of ideology and complacency,
followed by an empirical and pragmatic approach
to educational reforms
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 4
Positive reviews: PISA has done more for education in
Germany than 30 years of ideological discussions before
„PISA stopped the complacency and self-confidence, with which
Germany had looked at its education system for too long.“
Der SPIEGEL, 2010
„Since PISA, education is no hullabaloo anymore.“
Baumert, 2011
„Germany has become a role model for cooperation between
academia and politics.“
Klieme et al., 2010
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 5
Increasing challenges for education in Germany: Changes
in society lead to an unprecedented classroom diversity
Germany
below
average
in all skills
dimensions
PISA
shock
2001
Huge social
dependency
and almost
¼ below
minimum
reading skills
Tackling increasing challenges:
a new diversity in German schools
Impressive
improvements
Structural policy reform:
no single success factor,
but many puzzle pieces
But also:
reasonable
fear of
throwbacks
and old
sloppiness
New transparency and empiricism:
competence standards and accountability
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 6
Demographics, migration and parents put increasing
challenges on the German education system
Demographics:
number of students (and schools) heavily shrinks
Migration:
Germany becomes (much more) diverse
Parental will:
parents want all children to go to grammar school
Growing diversity means additional reform
pressure for the German education system
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 7
Demographics: Number of students shrinks by 15% –
in some West German regions even by up to 40%
Relative change in numbers of
10- to 15-year-old children (2009 to 2025)
School
mergers
–
classroom
diversity is
increasing
legend:
changes in percent
Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, www.wegweiser-kommune.de
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 8
Migration: Germany is today an immigration country –
one third of the youngest with migration background
Germany: share of population with
migration background
Frankfurt: almost three out of four
newborns with migration backgrund
34 %
16 %
72%
über 25 Jahre
0-5 Jahre
Source: Bildung in Deutschland 2010, Mikrozensus
Source: Mikrozensus 2007
Classroom diversity is
increasing
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 9
Parental will: The grammar school (Gymnasium)
becomes the comprehensive school of the middle class
students at grammar schools as share of all
students in class 8 (in percent)
Local
grammar
school share
of up to 80%
–
classroom
diversity is
increasing
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 10
The PISA shock has opened a window for some major
structural policy reforms in Germany over the last decade
Germany
below
average
in all skills
dimensions
PISA
shock
2001
Huge social
dependency
and almost
¼ below
minimum
reading skills
Tackling increasing challenges:
a new diversity in German schools
Impressive
improvements
Structural policy reform:
no single success factor,
but many puzzle pieces
But also:
reasonable
fear of
throwbacks
and old
sloppiness
New transparency and empiricism:
competence standards and accountability
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 11
ECEC, full-day schools, inclusion, two-tier schooling:
Germany has started a wide ranging reform
Expanding Early Childhood Education
58 %
2001
Two-tiered schooling as a standard
88 %
2011
Expanding full-day schooling
Structural
changes in
German
education
Commitment to inclusive education
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 12
Expanding quality Early Childhood Education: Massive investments and new legal entitlement, but a long way to go
three-year olds in daycare (Germany)
58 %
2001
88 %
2011
under-three-year olds (2001-2011):
Institutional daycare has tripled
Dynamic expansion,
but legal right for child
daycare (under 3 ys.) in
2013 very difficult to
meet (demand 50%,
today‘s supply 25%)
Better Quality (2006-2011):
child-staff ratio down to 4.7 from 6.5
Source: Mikrozensus 2001, Bertelsmann Stiftung:
Länderreport Frühkindliche Bildungssysteme 2011
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 13
Two-tiered schooling as a standard: Germany‘s traditional
multi-tiered schooling system is being dissolved
%
Educational expansion in Germany
Development 1960-2010
Pupils at Hauptschulen
(8th grade)
Hauptschule:
72 % to 18 %
Access to
Higher Education:
6 % to 48 %
Pupils allowed to
study at HEI
Decline of Hauptschulen leads to a new system of
Gymnasium (grammar school, 12 years) and
one additional type of secondary school (13 years).
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 14
Expanding full-day schooling: Very dynamic expansion,
but supply still lags far behind actual demand
Share of all pupils in full-day schooling
Attendance rate
full-day schooling
numbers in percent
growth rate
Germany:
28 %
Sweden:
100 %
USA:
100 %
Canada:
100 %
Dynamic expansion with
huge regional disparities,
but Germany is still far
behind international
standards and demand
Source: Bertelsmann Stiftung, 2012
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 15
Today
Commitment to inclusive education: About half a million
children with special needs may attend regular schooling
485.418 special needs pupils
3.306 special need schools
Implementing UN convention
leads to dissolution of special
needs schooling in Germany
Tomorrow
9 types of special support
On average two special need
children per regular class
–
Need for new didactics
(individual support)
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 16
New transparency and empiricism: The PISA shock
triggered an unseen collaboration of politics and academia
Germany
below
average
in all skills
dimensions
PISA
shock
2001
Huge social
dependency
and almost
¼ below
minimum
reading skills
Tackling increasing challenges:
a new diversity in German schools
Impressive
improvements
Structural policy reform:
no single success factor,
but many puzzle pieces
But also:
reasonable
fear of
throwbacks
and old
sloppiness
New transparency and empiricism:
competence standards and accountability
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 17
PISA has brought standards and accountability into
German education
National competence
standards (since 2004)
National education
report (since 2006)
Output-oriented
competence standards
for grades 4, 9 and 10
developed by academia,
enacted by politics
Bi-yearly indicator-based
monitoring by an expert
consortium of independent academics and
commissioned by politics
institutionalized in 2010
PISA follow up
Regular participation in
international study, but
since 2006 no intraGerman comparison
anymore (due to self
control of the Länder)
Regulated transparency: Politics tends to keep data under control
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 18
Looking at the results: Germany has experienced a
decade of impressive educational improvements
Germany
below
average
in all skills
dimensions
PISA
shock
2001
Huge social
dependency
and almost
¼ below
minimum
reading skills
Tackling increasing challenges:
a new diversity in German schools
Impressive
improvements
Structural policy reform:
no single success factor,
but many puzzle pieces
But also:
reasonable
fear of
throwbacks
and old
sloppiness
New transparency and empiricism:
competence standards and accountability
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 19
Germany is not Germany: Average science performance
of the 16 German Länder differs by nearly 60 points
Average science competence gap of two school years
between Saxony and Bremen
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 20
Improvements in all dimensions: Germany has reached the
OECD average in reading, exceeded in maths and science
Reading
Mathematics
Science
2009
2009
2000
2000
Above
Average
OECD
Average
2009
Below
Average
2000
Source: PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends, simplified illustration
Significant improvements in all skills dimensions
over the last decade:
13 points in reading, 23 points in maths and science (=one school year)
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 21
Germany‘s success story stems from closing the gap –
but unfortunately at the cost of the best
improvement from 2000 to 2006 (PISA points)
Formerly weak Länder succeed
Overall skills disparities decrease
!
reading skills 2000 (PISA points)
reading skills
Source: Wössmann, 2012
PISA 2009 Results: Learning Trends
Disparities have decreased, but are still significant –
Remarkable improvements from the bottom, stagnancy at the top
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 22
Social dependency has significantly decreased –
Germany‘s socio-economic gradient now at OECD average
Family background
Migration
(reading competence 2000-2009):
(reading competence 2000-2009):
working-class children
have significantly
improved, while upper
social class performance decreased
social
dependency
students with migration
background (+27 points)
have made up for one
school year (others: +4)
Source: Klieme et al., 2010
Coming from lag-end in 2000, Germany‘s social-economic
gradient has now reached OECD average
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 23
But the most serious problem is still to be solved: One out
of five children is lost to inadequate education in Germany
Share of students below minimum reading skills (PISA)
2000
25
percent
20
2009
Significant progress,
but nearly one in five
teenagers still cannot
properly read (focus:
boys with migration
background)
22.6
18.5
17.9
17.6
15
9.6
10.3
10
7.0
8.1
5.8
5.8
5
0
Germany
USA
Canada
Finland
Korea
Source: PISA 2000 and 2009
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 24
Klasse
9a:Though
Gute itBildung
ist möglich
Conclusion:
was not planned,
Germany has
moved piece by piece towards a whole-system reform
Piece by piece towards
a whole-system reform
Strong public and political attention
Focus on
outcome/
performance
Individualized
support for
ALL children
 standards
& autonomy
 capacity
building
More LearInclu2-tiered
ning Time
sive
school
(ECEC +
edustructure
full-day
cation
school)
 improved structures
& opportunities
PISA triggered (new) transparency
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 25
Klasse
9a:transparency
Gute Bildung
möglich
Fear: Losing
againist
would
endanger
the whole system’s stability
Dangerous selfcontrol of the Länder
• most-problematic areas
not measured (Hauptschulen, special need
schools)
More
IncluLearning
sive
Time
edu(ECEC +
cation
full-day)
 Danger of wasted money
(expensive unmeasured
measures)
• no comparison between
Länder anymore (exit
from PISA-E)
• scientists without access
to PISA data
 Danger of arbitrariness
Dr. Jörg Dräger
-
July 26th, 2012
Page 26
Accountability as a driver for reform: The “PISA shock“
of 2001 – a spotlight on the case of Germany
Dr. Jörg Dräger
Harvard University, July 26th, 2012