Achievers, Stayers, Seekers and Others:
Brain Drain and the Potential for Rural Return
Among Rural High School Students
A paper presented at the 73rd Annual Rural Sociological Society Meetings
Boise, Idaho
July 28-31, 2011
Kai Schafft
kas45@psu.edu
Department of Education Policy Studies
Penn State University
Robert Petrin
Department of Statistics
Penn State University
Thomas Farmer
Department of Educational and School Psychology and Special Education
Penn State University
Young People
Rural America’s most
valuable export?
Do rural schools
inadvertently
undermine rural
community well
being and
sustainability by
grooming the “best
and brightest”
students to leave the
home community?
Carr & Kefalas’ Ethnographic Categories of
Rural Youth and Mobility Trajectories
• ACHIEVERS – high achieving students from
professional class backgrounds who are college
bound and rarely return;
• SEEKERS – Like “Achievers” but without the
financial and family resources. Determined to leave
home, but may “boomerang” back if new life fails to
take hold;
• STAYERS – Low achieving students from working
class backgrounds who typically stay in the home
community.
Carr & Kefalas’ Ethnographic Categories of
Rural Youth and Mobility Trajectories
• ACHIEVERS – high achieving
students from professional class
backgrounds who are college bound and
rarely return;
• SEEKERS – Like “Achievers” but
without the financial and family resources.
Determined to leave home, but may
“boomerang” back if new life fails to take
hold;
• STAYERS – Low achieving
students from working class backgrounds
who typically stay in the home
community.
Ultimately
may become
RETURNERS
RHSA Study – Qualitative Data
Suggest Slightly Different Conclusions
• Varying ambivalence about leaving home
amongst all groups of students;
• Varying types of mobility aspirations across
different types of communities (local
economic conditions, employment options);
• Aspirations for and precedents of
outmigration and rural return common, even
amongst “Achievers.”
Data and Methods: Quantitative
•
•
•
•
•
Survey of 9-12th graders in 73 rural schools;
8.2% classified as small town;
78.1% classified as rural, outside MSA;
13.7% classified as rural inside MSA;
36 schools with >50% low income students
(FRPL);
• 15 schools with >50% self identifying as ethnic
minority.
Data and Methods: Qualitative
• Focus groups in 12 school survey sites, chosen
to achieve regional variation;
• In each site focus groups with High School
Students, Educators and Community Leaders
In all…
• What is the local community like as a place to
live and grow up in?;
• What is the relationship between the school
and the community?;
• What post-secondary residential, educational
and career aspirations do High School
Students have and what factors appear to
influence how rural youth make plans for their
futures?
Quantitative Analyses
Can Carr & Kefalas’ (2009) rural
youth categories be replicated
using Latent Class Analysis?
Quantitative Analyses
Gendered Differences
(Table 1):
Females:
↑ Grades
↑ School Valuing
↑ Extracurricular Participation
↑ Contact with Adults
↑ Perceived Interest by Teachers
Quantitative Analyses
Latent Class Solutions,
Males and Females
(Tables 2&3):
• Latent class probabilities substantively similar
across gender, roughly corresponding to
“Achievers,” “Seekers” and “Stayers”;
• “Achievers” and “Stayers” differ qualitatively
across gender, consistent with data in Table 1.
Quantitative Analyses
Predictors of Student Latent Types,
(Table 4)
LATENT TYPE (LATENT CLASS)
Achievers
Seekers
Stayers
H
M
L
-0.458
0.138
R/C
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
0.465 **
0.269
0.178
0.134
R/C
R/C
High Parent Education (B.A. or B.S.
vs. Other)
Rural Remote (vs. Other)
1.015 ***
0.261
0.409 *
0.188
R/C
R/C
0.622 *
-0.059
-0.003
R/C
R/C
R/C
MALES ONLY
Minority Student
Long Lived in Community (> 8-10 Yrs
vs. Other)
Grade 12 (vs. Grades 11, 10, 9)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
Ln of school enrollment
0.680 **
-0.268
-0.190
LATENT TYPE (LATENT CLASS)
Achievers
Seekers
Stayers
H
M
L
-0.458
0.138
R/C
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
0.465 **
0.269
0.178
0.134
R/C
R/C
High Parent Education (B.A. or B.S.
vs. Other)
Rural Remote (vs. Other)
1.015 ***
0.261
0.409 *
0.188
R/C
R/C
0.622 *
-0.059
-0.003
R/C
R/C
R/C
MALES ONLY
Minority Student
Long Lived in Community (> 8-10 Yrs
vs. Other)
Grade 12 (vs. Grades 11, 10, 9)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
Ln of school enrollment
0.680 **
-0.268
-0.190
LATENT TYPE (LATENT CLASS)
FEMALES ONLY
Minority Student
Achievers
Seekers
Stayers
H
M
L
-0.634 **
0.276
R/C
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
0.726 **
0.414
0.308
0.074
R/C
R/C
High Parent Education (B.A. or B.S.
vs. Other)
Rural Remote (vs. Other)
1.011 ***
0.165
0.162
0.214
R/C
R/C
Grade 12 (vs. Grades 11, 10, 9)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
Ln of school enrollment
1.087 ***
-0.442
-0.334 *
0.731 ***
1.628
0.051
R/C
R/C
R/C
Long Lived in Community (> 8-10 Yrs
vs. Other)
LATENT TYPE (LATENT CLASS)
FEMALES ONLY
Minority Student
Achievers
Seekers
Stayers
H
M
L
-0.634 **
0.276
R/C
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
0.726 **
0.414
0.308
0.074
R/C
R/C
High Parent Education (B.A. or B.S.
vs. Other)
Rural Remote (vs. Other)
1.011 ***
0.165
0.162
0.214
R/C
R/C
Grade 12 (vs. Grades 11, 10, 9)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
Ln of school enrollment
1.087 ***
-0.442
-0.334 *
0.731 ***
1.628
0.051
R/C
R/C
R/C
Long Lived in Community (> 8-10 Yrs
vs. Other)
Quantitative Analyses
Association Between Student
Mobility Plans and Latent Types,
(Tables 5 & 6)
In thinking about your future, how
important is each of the following to you?
VALID PERCENT
(Somewhat to Very
Important)
Living close to my community
where I grew up.
41.6
Going away to a larger city or
environment but returning later
to a smaller community to raise
a family
51.2
Where do you WANT to live when you are
30 years old?
Same area or town as now
Another rural area or town in my state
Smaller city in my state
Large city in my state
Small city in another state
Large city in another state
Rural area in another state
Another country
Don’t know
VALID PERCENT
14.8
6.3
6.1
7.9
6.7
17.0
3.2
3.8
34.2
Where do you WANT to live when you are
30 years old?
Same area or town as now
Another rural area or town in my state
Smaller city in my state
Large city in my state
Small city in another state
Large city in another state
Rural area in another state
Another country
Don’t know
VALID PERCENT
14.8
6.3
6.1
7.9
6.7
17.0
3.2
3.8
34.2
Where do you WANT to live when you are
30 years old?
Same area or town as now
Another rural area or town in my state
Smaller city in my state
Large city in my state
Small city in another state
Large city in another state
Rural area in another state
Another country
Don’t know
VALID PERCENT
14.8
6.3
6.1
7.9
6.7
17.0
3.2
3.8
34.2
MALES
Live Close to Community
Where Grew Up
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
0.058
0.302
0.671
-0.058
0.139
0.020
-0.026
-0.513
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
-0.077
0.078
0.650
*
***
*
***
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
2.528 **
1.931 **
1.665
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
(1 2)
(1 3)
N
2,844
MALES
Important to Go Away &
Return Later to Small Town
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
0.370
0.074
-0.275
0.021
0.148
-0.120
0.274
0.291
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
0.192
-0.106
-0.785 *
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
***
**
*
**
**
0.696
0.654
1.190 *
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
(1 3)
(2 3)
N
2,862
MALES (indicating Res. Pref.)
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
Want to live in Same Town
-0.258
0.667
1.047
-0.033
-0.117
-0.012
-0.498
-2.115
***
***
***
***
0.001
0.276
1.263
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
3.792 ***
3.195 ***
2.584 **
(1 2)
(1 3)
(2 3)
N
2,837
MALES (indicating Res. Pref.)
Want to live in a Rural Area
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
-0.381
0.510
.969
-0.037
-0.145
0.165
-0.519
-1.387
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
-0.142
0.075
0.914
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
N
*
***
***
***
***
1.737 *
1.211
0.888
(1 2)
(1 3)
2,883
FEMALES
Live Close to Community
Where Grew Up
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
-0.275
0.395
0.296
-0.079
-0.139
0.051
-0.158
-0.891
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
-0.111
0.091
0.432
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
1.078
0.669
0.919
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
N
3,385
*
***
*
*
***
FEMALES
Important to Go Away &
Return Later to Small Town
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
0.162
0.092
-0.110
0.026
0.145
-0.061
0.085
0.081
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
0.197
-0.054
-0.073
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
0.874
1.129 *
0.704
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
(1 3)
(2 3)
N
3,400
FEMALES (indicating Res. Pref.)
Want to live in Same Town
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
-0.277
0.498
0.504
-0.045
0.033
0.017
-0.621
-2.716
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
-0.042
0.279
1.330 *
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
N
***
**
***
***
3.448 **
3.039 **
2.952 **
(1 2)
3,400
FEMALES (indicating Res. Pref.)
Want to live in a Rural Area
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
-0.475
0.434
.734
-0.031
-0.029
0.052
-0.546
-1.346
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
-0.273
0.043
1.306 **
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
1.277
1.005
0.978
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
N
2,985
**
***
***
***
***
FEMALES (indicating Res. Pref.)
Important to Go Away and
Return Later to Small Town
Student Covariates
Minority
Lived in Community > 8-10 Yrs (vs. Other)
Farm Residence (Y vs. N)
Number of Siblings
High Parent Education B.A.+ or B.S.+ (vs. Other)
Student in Grade 12 (vs. Other)
Many Must Move to Get Jobs
Very Imp. To Get Away from Area
0.193
0.108
-0.091
0.029
0.037
-0.067
0.056
0.045
School/Community Covariates
Rural Remote Locale (vs. Other)
School Size (Ln Enrollment)
School Poverty Level (% Free Lunch)
0.111
-0.026
-0.022
Logistic Regression Intercepts, by Latent Type
1: Achievers
2: Seekers
3: Stayers
1.039 *
0.838
1.200 *
Statistically different intercepts (Classes found to differ from one
another via pairwise tests)
N
2,972
Qualitative Data Suggests Rural
Attachment & Norms of Rural Return
Female FG Member 1: I think some of them are ready to spread their wings and
get the heck out of here. [GROUP LAUGHTER] They would say. To go to
something bigger and better. But a lot of times I think this type of community is
somewhat bred into those kids. And I'm just speaking from experience in that
you want to sometimes come back to where your roots were and raise your kids
how you were raised. So even though they want to get away and go to college or
go wherever. I think, long-term, some of those kids usually end up back in this
community. Or in another one like it. Like in my case.
Female FG Member 2: I was telling [TEACHER] yesterday-I didn't see it myself, my
daughter shared it with me, but my middle son-there is a new thing on Facebook,
you know "25 random facts about me." [GROUP LAUGHTER]. I don't know if
you've heard about this or not. Anyway, one of the facts that my middle son put
down was that he was raised on dirt roads and that's where he wants to raise his
kids.
Conclusions
• We were able to use latent class analyses
attempting to replicate Carr & Kefalas’ student
types;
• However, contrary to Carr & Kefalas’ findings, we
find that Achievers tend to be least likely to aspire
to leave rural areas;
• Some gendered differences;
• Qualitative data suggest youth rural attachment
AND examples of rural return, including return of
“Achievers”
Conclusions
• RHSA data suggests the importance of
understanding the relationship between
community context and student aspirations;
• Longitudinal and mixed methods work
valuable (e.g. McLaughlin & Snyder’s RYE data;
Michael Corbett)
• Implications for rural community
development?
Other Collaborators
•
•
•
•
•
Tom Farmer, Penn State University
Judith Meece, University of N. Carolina, Chapel Hill
Soo-yong Byun, University of N. Carolina, Chapel Hill
Bryan Hutchins, University of N. Carolina, Chapel Hill
Matt Irvin, University of N. Carolina, Chapel Hill
This research is supported by a Research and Development Center grant (R305A04056)
from the Institute of Education Sciences to the National Research Center on Rural
Education Support at the University of North Carolina-CH. The views expressed in this
article are ours and do not represent the granting agency.