“As we look deeper into the 21st century, the name of the game
has changed. Instead of isolation, we are faced with the
pressing reality of a single, rapidly evolving, global and
multiethnic culture. Connections and relationships cannot be
ignored, because what happens in one part of the world,
whether economic, political, cultural or environmental, affects
all other parts.”
Loheed & Brooks
“New Places for a New Age”
Urban Land
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
TOP 10 GLOBAL TRENDS
Demographics
1. Changing American
Demographics
2. Immigration Trends
3. Changes Within the
“Creative Class”
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
TOP
10 GLOBAL TRENDS
Lifestyles
4. Traffic Congestion & Value of Time
5. Trends in Health Care, Wellness
& Recreation
6. Growth of Tourism
7. America’s Growing Debt Burden
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
TOP
10 GLOBAL TRENDS
Global Competition & Change
8. Emergence of China, India &
a Planetary Middle Class
9. Continued Advances
in Technology
10. Environmentalism,
Sustainability &
Climate Change
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
1. Changing American Demographics
“Baby Boom” 77 million born 1946 to 1964

Sheer numbers support labor markets,
entitlements

College education rates increase 5x

Shaped by suburbia, Cold War & Civil
Rights era

Living longer, healthier

Unprecedented wealth, to shift to
next generation

Empty nest market looking to downsize?
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
1. Changing American Demographics
“Generation X” 44 million born 1961 to 1981

Cynical about the future, bitter
toward baby boomers

Shaped by information age –
ability to multi-task & transfer skills
enhances marketability in job market

Value lifestyle over company loyalty

Discretionary spenders, homebuyers
at earlier age

Majority now have children
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
1. Changing American Demographics
“Millennials” 70 million born 1977 to 2003

Growing up with technology –
multi-taskers

More optimistic, tolerant and
open-minded

Multi-cultural – in majority of
100 largest U.S. cities, more than
half under age 15 are racial and
ethnic minorities

Spirit of volunteerism and passion
to foster change

Increasing impact in U.S. voting and
elected office
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
2. Immigration Trends
U.S. only major growing industrial country, due mostly
to immigration

Only 5 countries welcome immigrants
as permanent residents: U.S., Canada,
Australia, New Zealand & Israel

85% of U.S. immigrants from Latin
America or Asia

Shift away from traditional urban
gateways to suburbs & rural areas

49 languages currently spoken in
Littleton Public Schools
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
3. Changes Within the “Creative Class”
Richard Florida’s “creatives” attracted to diverse, tolerant,
innovative and vibrant environments…
 Entrepreneurs who staff/start innovative
growing companies
 Growing importance of well-educated
young women
-60% of college enrollment by 2013
-Majority of workforce by 2010
 Millennials to replenish/replace the
creative class
 Quality schools key to attracting and
retaining young families
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
4. Traffic Congestion and the Value of Time
U.S. auto dependency increasingly costly in time and
money

Worsening traffic congestion cost Americans $63 billion in 2005,
47 hours in average annual delays

Denver: 1986 – 20 hours;
2005 – 50 hours

Additional road capacity doing little
to stem congestion

Transit growth has exceeded driving
growth since 1996

Avoiding congestion a motivation for
urban living?
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
5. Trends in Healthcare and Wellness
Demand for services increasing, supply decreasing…

Declining hospital use and stays for cost containment

Nearly 46 million uninsured adding to cost burden

More reliance on outpatient, “retail” and e-medicine

Shortage of doctors and nurses projected

Aging population will increase
demand for services

Urban form and health – more
obesity in suburbs, majority of
Americans would like to walk and
bike more
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
6. Growth of Tourism
An international growth market…

Tourism is world’s largest employer – 200 million jobs

U.S. ranked third as international tourism destination

Expanding global middle class
will increase tourism

Weak dollar increasing visits to U.S.

Cultural heritage tourism growing.
Visitors stay longer, spend more

Convention center space
increasing, demand limited by
industry consolidations, e-business
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
7. America’s Growing Debt Burden
American debt a looming economic cloud…

National debt $30K, Mortgage debt $42K & Consumer debt $8K per
capita

Nearly 33% of Americans live pay check to pay check vs. 7% of
consumers in China, India and Mexico

In 1950, 16 workers for each social security recipient;
By 2030, 2 workers for each eligible recipient

Economic expansion of past 15 years has seen
savings rates decline from 7.5% of income to
below zero

46% of national debt held by foreign countries

Rising interest rates and inflation + debt + lack of savings = ???
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary
Middle Class
“In the same way that commentators refer to the 1900s as the
American Century, the 21st century may be seen as the time when
Asia, led by China and India, comes into its own. A combination of
sustained high economic growth, expanding military capabilities,
and large populations will be at the root of the expected rise in
economic and military power for both countries.”
Mapping the Global Future,
U.S. National Intelligence Council
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
8. The Emergence of China, India and a Planetary
Middle Class
 In 2005 China consumed 26% of global steel, 32% of rice, 37% of cotton
and 47% of cement
 2006 construction in Shanghai =
Existing NYC office market
 Billionaires in China – 15 in 2006,
106 in 2007
 U.S. outsourcing to India to
quadruple by 2010 to $56B/yr.
 Country with largest number of
English speakers by 2010? India
 Growing global middle class creates
markets for U.S. goods
 “Innovation trumps brawn”
 Income disparities continue to create instability, foster terrorism
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
9. Continued Advances in Technology
Areas where technology will have the largest impact:
 Health, biotechnology (genomics, bioinformatics)
 Alternative sources of energy
 Nanotechnology (engineering on a molecular scale)
 Quality of life enhancements –
accessing information and
entertainment through e-portals
 New channels for doing business
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
9. Continued Advances in Technology
Technology and business…

Real-time anywhere wireless communications will increase competition
and open global markets

“World is Flat” = globalization to be
driven by individuals

One billion online, 11% annual
increase through 2010

“Uploading” – Bottom-up creation
of culture, knowledge & innovation

E-commerce increasing, but less than
3% of total retail sales

Cities compete with increasing personal mobility and living options
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
10. Environmentalism and Sustainability
A rapidly urbanizing world…
 Majority of planet now lives in cities
 Today 3 billion – 6 billion by 2050
 Autos in China…
1 million in 1995
50 million today
150 million by 2015
 At current growth rates, number of
vehicles and global energy consumption
could more than double by 2030
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
10. Environmentalism and Sustainability
A rapidly urbanizing world…
 U.S. transportation system 97%
dependent on petroleum fuels
 U.S. buildings consume 36% of
total energy, 65% of electricity
 Half of American homes projected
by 2030 do not yet exist
 U.S. cities launching green building
and sustainability initiatives –
Chicago, San Francisco, Seattle,
Portland, New York City, Denver…
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
Conclusions
Overall, trends favorable for vibrant communities?
 America growing, younger & older,
more diverse
 Increasingly connected &
competitive world
 Resource-intensive lifestyles
increasingly expensive and
not sustainable
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
Conclusions
Warning signs that could impede new investment…
 Global disparities create continued
instability
 American debt burden on collision
course with aging demographics and
global inflationary pressures
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
Implications for Littleton
Demographics…
 Welcome younger, multi-cultural
populations
 Create an environment that appeals
to young women
 Keep the talent pool
as they age – schools, parks
 Diverse price points
needed for housing
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
Implications for Littleton
Lifestyles…
 Implement localized transit strategies
 Offer affordable & accessible health care
 Offer stimulating, multi-dimensional
experiences – i.e. fun
 Walkability and active recreation
 Heritage tourism an opportunity?
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES
Implications for Littleton
Global Competition & Change…
 Entrepreneurship continues to
be the key to job growth
 Adaptive reuse more affordable
as construction costs rise
 Localities lead sustainability efforts
GLOBAL TRENDS 2008
PROGRESSIVE URBAN MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATES