Unit 2: Demography
(Population Studies)
Implications of
Population growth
Real Time Population Statistics @ http://www.worldometers.info/
The World at Seven Billion @
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sc4HxPxNrZ0
The World’s Most Typical Person @
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4B2xOvKFFz4
Hans Rosling explains population growth and its implications
using legos @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxbprYyjyyU
I. Population Statistics
• 1st question: “Where is the data coming
from?”
After all, Figures don’t lie, but the liars can
figure!
• Basic terminology: What does correlation
mean???
Correlation Coefficient
• Measures how related 2 variables are
• Shown as #s b/t +1 and -1
• Determines:
– STRENGTH
• Closer to 1/-1 = strong correlation
• Closer to 0 = weak/no correlation
– DIRECTION (positive or negative)
• Determined through statistical magic!
Practice determining Strength…
Which is stronger?
A. -.8 or +.5
B. .2 or - .3
C. .9 or .1
D. .5 or -.52
E. -.9 or .9
Let’s look at Scatter Plots
(they show the variables being measured)
• Remember, close to zero = weak
relationship/unrelated variables
• Ask yourself: Is it going NE or SE?
– NE = “Positive” = both variables increase OR
both decrease (“direct relationship”)
– SE = “Negative” = One variable increases 
other decreases (“inverse relationship”)
• Correlations do NOT = causation!!!
Scatter Plots
TRUE or FALSE
1. If there seems to be no spatial relationship
among the plots than there is a very weak
or insignificant relationship among the two
variables.
2. If the plots all fall along an imaginary line
except for one, then the relationship has to
be strong.
3. If all the plots fall along an imaginary line
the relationship is 1.0, or close to 1.0.
–
Slight
positive
correlation:
.42
•
10 Questions
Positive or negative correlation? Strong or weak?
A.
B.
C.
D.
E.
F.
G.
H.
I.
•
Identical twins’ IQ scores?
Age and wealth?
Caloric intake to weight?
Affluence and family size
Geographical knowledge and sexiness?
AP Human Geo GPA and score on AP Exam
Alcohol Intake and balance/consciousness LOL
Sarcasm in answers and Exam Scores??
Washing hands and likelihood of getting swine flu?
Next scatter plot… what correlation coefficient
would you expect?
Let’s relate this to something that
affects you…
• What do colleges look at when you apply?
• What is the relationship b/t the almighty
GPA and college success (freshman year
GPA)
• How about the ALMIGHTY SAT score and
college success???
• Actual statistics: .48 and .42 respectively
• What about combined? ONLY .55!!
Surprised???
• Why are freshmen so unpredictable??
Variables: Math Score on SAT and
GPA in college
Question?
If they really have no clue
who will succeed and who
will not,
why use these statistics for
admittance into colleges?
Why and how did the College Board
change the SAT a few yrs. ago?
According to the College Board…Did the changes to the
SAT impact its predictive validity?
• Our expectations are that the predictive validity of the
total test will increase modestly with the addition of
writing as a third measure of students' critical thinking
skills. In a recent validity study, the SAT Subject Test in
Writing was judged to be the best single test in
predicting freshman grade point average for all
ethnic/racial groups except Asian Americans. In that
same study, adding SAT Writing Subject Test scores to
SAT scores added .02 to .03 incremental validity above
SAT and high school grades. Another study, conducted
by the University of California, showed the Writing
Subject Test added .06 to.08 to the overall predictive
validity, while the most recent study indicates that it
added .02 for students in most majors except those in
education; for those students, the increment rose to
about .06.
No Talking!
Back to Population Statistics…
1. Birth Rate (CBR)
• Calculated how?
• High =40+ Low = <15
• Wealth and CBR
– Positive/negative correlation?
– Exceptions: China (12) E. Europe (12)Low
wealth and low CBR. Otherwise, high wealth,
low CBR.
•
•
•
•
•
Highest: Chad (51) and Niger (50)
Lowest: Germany/Bosnia/Japan @ 8
U.S.: 13
World average = 20
MDCs = 11, Dev = 22, w/o China = 25, LDCs = 34
2. Death Rate (CDR)
• Calculated?
• High = 18
Low = <10
• Stat can change dramatically
– War, pandemic, famine, etc.
– W. Hem in 16th Century was 900/1,000
• Correlation Wealth and CDR?
– NOT Really?
• Highest: Sierra Leone (18) & E. Europe ~15
• Lowest: U.A.E (1) and Qatar & Oman (2)
• U.S.: 8
3. Natural Rate of Increase (NRI) or
(RNI)
• Calculated how?
• Ex: CBR 20 CDR 5 THEN NIR = 15/1000 =
1.5%
• High = 2-3%
Low = Less than 1%
• USA formula CBR 13.8 minus CDR 8.4 =
5.4/1,000 = .54%
• Europe: Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Norway,
Sweden, U.K., Belgium, France, Luxembourg,
Netherlands, Switzerland, Albania, Kosovo, Spain have
slightly pos, NRI. A number of others have a 0 or
negative NRI. Why? Highest in world = Niger.
4. Population growth rates (PGR)
• Calculated how?
• High = 2+%
Low = <1% or negative
• U.S.: 13.8 (CBR) – 8.4 (CDR) + Net
migration 4.3 (per 1000) = 9.7/1000 =
.97%
• Population Growth trends
– Negative/Positive Correlations?
• Women’s rights
• Economic growth
• Literacy rate
Impact of immigration?
Notice Some Trends?
5. Total Fertility Rates (TFR)
(ages 15-49???)
• 2.5 for the world today
• 8.1 highest in history
• 2.33 stability = “replacement rate”
–
–
–
–
2.1 in industrialized nations
2.5+ in peripheral country
Why not 2.0?
Mortality rates of women before they can have children
• Comparisons:
– High: Niger (7.6), Chad (7.0), Somalia (6.8) (a lot of babies!!)
– U.S.: 1.9
– Low: Singapore (1.3) Taiwan & South Korea (1.3)
• Lower fertility rates: Cause for optimism?
Singapore
Social Development Unit
1984(started)
2006(changed)
• to improve the social networking between busy working individuals
• organize activities for its members
http://www.myspaceanimations.com/myspace-animations-heart-graphics.html
Social Development Unit
“Dare to Date"
“The Chemistry Guide: When Boy
Meets Girl”, '' focusing on the
http://healthscreeningpackagessingapore.com
/
overworked, the shy, and the
"cosmetically challenged."
The guide reminds hopeful singles that
"Skin-care products are must-have
investments" and "There's no bigger
turnoff than a foul mouth, reeking with
leftovers from lunch!"
2 free publications
Population Policies
http://www.monochrom.at/english/2008/04/demographic-winter.htm
What types of population policies exist ?
Pro-natalist or Expansive
Maintenance or Stability
2 .1 babies
http://www.yooj.co.uk/test_page_1.html
+
http://www.visualphotos.com/image/2x4628085/russian_babys_feet_sticking_out_from_blanket
2009
• 36 countries have pro-natalist policies
• 67 countries have anti-natalist policies
• 33 countries have maintenance policies
*Why would a country want a pro-natalist policy ?
• replaces those lost in war and civil unrest
• build up the military
• replace retiring folks in the workforce
• support the increasing number of seniors
• occupy parts of a country that are virtually empty
• help develop the resources of a state
• lead to economic growth
• increase majority/minority percentages
• gain more influence internationally
Examples: of Pro-natalist Policies
Past and Present
http://www.imb.org/southern-africa/images/Malagasy_children.jpg
U.S.S.R.
1944 – 1992
awarded medals to women in
order to encourage a high
fertility rate.
Why ?
3 Categories of Medals were Presented
•
Motherhood Medals
•
Order of the Glory of Motherhood
or
Order of Maternal Glory
•
Order of Mother Heroine
Motherhood Medals
2nd Class
5 children
8,000,000 awarded
1st Class
6 children
4,000,000 awarded
Order of Maternal Glory
3rd Class
2nd Class
1st Class
7 children - 2,000,000 awarded
8 children - 1,000,000 awarded
9 children - 500,000 awarded
Order Mother Heroine
10 children
200,000 awarded
Germany
Cross of Honor of the German Mother
http://nobeliefs.com/mementoes.htm
1938 - 1944
http://www.diggerhistory.info/pages-medals/nazi2.htm
Bronze 3rd Class Mother’s Nazi Cross 4, 5
Silver 2nd Class Mother’s Nazi Cross 6, 7
Gold 1st Class Mother’s Nazi Cross 8 or more
Diamond – 14 or more ?
German Mother’s Cross
14 children ?
17 diamonds
http://snyderstreasures.com/pages/motherscross.htm
Russia
Recent incentives
2008
Year of the Family
http://www.farfrommoscow.com/articles/songs-for-russias-day-of-family-fidelity-and-love.html
Russia
July 8
•
•
•
Recent incentives
new national holiday – Day
continued
of Family, Love, and Fidelity
earlier births
stable families – reduce divorce rate,
revive family values
promote patriotism – babies for Russia
A 3rd child means wealth will
be tripled in the third millennium.
• “Give me Life Campaign”
•
http://somatosphere.net/2011/12/%E2%80%98population-prescriptions%E2%80%99-pronatalism-and-the-fear-ofunderpopulation-in-post-soviet-russia.html
medals for long married couples with children (~ 25 years)
Ulyanovsk Oblast, Russia - Family Contact Day
(Conception Day)
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/20268426/ns/world_news-europe/t/russians-offered-day-prizes-procreate/
Grand Prize winners of “Give Birth to a Patriot on Russia’s Independence Day” Contest
Japan
Princesses Masako
& Aiko
Japan
Government Incentives
•
improved parental leave (1 yr. @ 66.7%)
•
local govn’ts (rural) cash bonuses
•
monthly allowance (~ 300/child)
•
New Angel Plan (more available daycare & less working hours)
•
free pre-natal care and deliveries
http://factsanddetails.com/japan.php?itemid=600&catid=18
Companies are urged to have family-friendly packages
•
monthly payments (Matsushita)
•
shorter hours (Nippon Telegraph & Telephone)
•
fertility treatments paid for (Canon)
•
$400 (1st) - $40,000 (5th) (Softbank)
•
$1000 – 1st, $2000 – 2nd, $20,300 for 3rd + (Koei Tecmo )
Iran
Anti-natalist or pro-natalist ?
1967 – first anti-natalist policy
1979 – pro-natalist
1988 – anti-natalist
2006 – pro-natalist
1979
•
start of Islamic Revolution
•
family planning program –
western influence
•
promotion of contraception
by health officials banned
•
procreation to bolster the
ranks of “soldiers for Islam”
http://www.fnb.to/FNB/Article/Khomeyni/Khomeiny3.jpg
(8 year war with Iraq)
Ayatollah Khomeini
Khomeini’s pro-natalist policy resulted in GR of 3.2%
Total fertility rate
rose to 7
1988
2006
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38434672/ns/world_news-mideast_n_africa/t/iran-will-pay-new-babies-boost-population/
“I am against saying that two children are enough. Our country has a lot of
capacity. It has the capacity for many children to grow in it. It even has the
capacity for 120 million people. Westerners have got problems. Because their
population growth is negative, they are worried and fear that if our population
increases, we will triumph over them.”
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad
http://www.zazzle.com/antinatalism
Why would a country want an anti-natalist policy ?
• cannot afford to provide for them
• overpopulation concerns - limited available resources
local, national, international SCALE
• allow more women in the workforce and boost economy
• repress a group of people
separate policy for certain groups
or
different applications of the policy (see 2nd last slide)
China
2 different programs in recent years
• Later, Longer, Fewer Policy
1971
• One Child Policy
1979
What difference would it make
when you got married ?
http://www.photoshopessentials.com/photo-effects/photo-templates/
http://www.world-of-weddings.com/wedding-dresses/older-bride-wedding-dress.html
One Child Policy
1979
- rewards start once 1 child contract is signed
Rewards
• free medical care
• free daycare and schooling
• guaranteed job for child
• bonuses for parents
• extra maternity leave
• better housing
• bigger old age pension
Penalties
• must repay financial benefits
• educational, medical benefits, &
guaranteed jobs are withdrawn
• parents’ wages reduced
*How did the government persuade its
citizens to cooperate ?
80,000 Family Planning Workers
http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop1.html
Education Program
http://www.nisjapan.minidns.net/nis/galleries/5thgradestudentwork/5thGradeChinaProject/07CN.html
Peer pressure
Advertising
http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop1.html
http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html
Carry out family planning
Implement the basic national policy
Clever and pretty
healthy and lovely
source: http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html
http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop1.html
http://www.iisg.nl/~landsberger/pop.html
Little emperors
Any social problems ?
In recent years China has relaxed the
rules, and in some cases have even
started encouraging two children.
(in some districts in certain situations)
Why ?
In many cases, parents are not taking
advantage of this opportunity.
*Why ?
Only countries with over
5 million people
6. Doubling Time
• Def.?
• Assumption?? Constant PGR
• World’s doubling time is 64 years
– As TFR increases, doubling time ___________.
– At 1% growth rate it takes 70 years to double
– At 2% growth rate takes 35 years to double
• U.S. = 70/.9% = 78
• What is Eastern Europe’s doubling time?
• Japan’s??
7. Dependency ratio
• Calculated:
(Pop. <15) + (65+) divided by
working-age population (those aged 15-64)
• Dependency ratio tells us how strained
working pop. is
– Ex. Dependency ratio of 0.9 means there are 9
dependants for every 10 working-age people
• Keep in mind:
– Negative correlation b/t dependency ratio and
the ability to take care of dependents
Issues with Dep. Ratio
• Future for the U.S.? Soc. Security?
• Better to have too many old, too many
young?
• Impact of Underemployment?
Unemployment?
• Child Labor?
8. Life Expectancy
# years expected to live for babies
born this year
What do you predict your life
expectancy to be?
• http://gosset.wharton.upenn.edu/mortality/perl/Cal
cForm.html
• Almost 2.5 million Americans died last year
–
–
–
–
650,000 heart disease
550,000 cancer
150,000 stroke
73,000 diabetes
• Comparisons:
– High: Japan (83, females 86) Singapore (81.98,
females 84)
– U.S.: 79, females 81. Low: Botswana (47) Lesotho (48)
– World avg. (70)
9. Infant Mortality Rates (very tragic stuff)
• # babies who die before their 1st birthday
out of 1,000 live births
• Not included: abortions or miscarriages
• Contrast MDC v. LDC
• Correlation w/ wealth?
• Comparisons:
– High: Sierra Leone (128) C.A.R. (116)
D.R.C (111) Afghanistan (was 157, now 71)
Pakistan (74)
– Low: Japan (2.2) Sweden (2.76) Singapore (1.8)
– U.S.: 5.9
– World: 40. MDCs =5, Dev = 44 w/o China = 48, LDCs =
66
10 Highest 2007 est. cia.gov
Angola 184.44
Sierra Leone 158.27
Afghanistan 157.43
Liberia 149.73
Niger 116.83
Somalia 113.08
Mozambique 109.93
Mali 105.65
Guinea-Bissau 103.50
Chad 102.07 2007 est.
IMR cont.
• List 5 variables negatively correlated w/ IMR
• List 5 variables positively correlated w/ IMR
• Practice w/ demographics:
http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/worldbalance/dem
ographer.html
Demographic Transition Model:
Basics of DTM explained @ http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d1dIAtvSFLM
One reason this class is so stimulating is our
focus on Models
Stage One = “High stationary”
What is happening with CBR and CDR?
Causes of Stage One
•
•
•
•
Lack of clean water  diseases spread
Inefficient sewage  diseases spread
Food shortages  famine
Death rates fluctuate wildly
– Wars
– Diseases
– Drought
– Natural disasters
Stage Two = “Early Expansion”
Stage Two = Decline in death rates:
WHY?
Setting: Europe and N. America (1800s)
1. Improvements in water supply, sewage, food
handling
2. General personal hygiene (baths are now cool)
3. Increased female literacy
4. 2nd Agric. Revolution = MORE FOOD!
– Higher yields by farmers agricultural practices were
improved
– Mechanization of farming
– New system of crop rotation
• Leads to increase survival of the children
• LDCs (1950s)  medical technology revolution
Stage Three = “Late Expanding”
• Declines in birth rate WHY?
– Drop in IMR
– Urban life too expensive/not enough space
– Gains for women
• Increase in literacy rate
• More access to education
– Postponing marriage
– (Contraceptives were not widely available in the
first half 20th)
• MDCs moved into Stage 3 during early 20th
• If LDCs are in Stage 3, they did so in the last
20 years
Why CDR fall b4 CBR???
• Easier to convince people to stop dying
than to stop “being longitudinal”
Stage Four = Low Stationary
Stage 4: “Low Stationary”
• Careers for women
CBR = CDR
– postpones marriage/childbirth
– Rise of daycare more expensive
• Wide access to birth control methods
• DINKs MUCH more common lifestyle choice
– Travel not conducive to raising a family
– More freedom for people to enjoy life – NO KIDS TO
MAKE THEM INSANE!!
• What begins to happen at the very end of stage four?
• Stage 5???
– CDR exceeds CBR over many years
– Not yet part of the DTM but much discussed and supported
– Eastern European countries
• Low birth rates
• Aging population
• Bleak future  pollution, political instability, low
economic growth rates, etc.
Demographic Transition
Model
• Can a country skip stages?
• Can a country move backwards?
• Have all countries gone through this
process? Can all countries go though this
process?
The Demographic Divide:
Niger and Netherlands
Niger
Netherlands
Population (2013)
16.9 million
16.8 million
Projected Population (2050)
65.8 million
17.9 million
2050 Projected Population as a
Multiple of 2013
3.9
1.1
Lifetime Births per Woman
7.6
1.7
845,000
195,000
176,000
141,000
50%
17%
% of Population Ages 65+ (2013)
3%
16%
% of Population Ages 65+
(projected 2050)
3%
27%
57 years
81 years
51
3.7
43,000
650
Annual Births
Annual Deaths
% of Population Below Age 15
Life Expectancy at Birth (all)
Infant Mortality Rate (per 1,000
live births)
Annual Number of Infant Deaths
Population Pyramids and the
DTM
• You may be asked to determine which stage a
country is in based on a pop. pyr.
• Pyramid advice – how to analyze a pyramid:
– Look at 4 things:
•
•
•
•
Top of the pyramid
Bottom of the pyramid
Any bulges/indentations in the pyramid?
The symmetry of the pyramid
– Always refer to SPECIFIC POINTS on the pyramid!!!
– Make sure to look at pyramids at different scales!
– Think about what stage of the DTM the pyramid reflects

Population Pyramids
What patterns do you see?
Rwanda
France
Mexico
U.S.
Russia
China
India
UAE
FRQ Strategy
• College Board always has at least one definition
style FRQ and you have practiced it many
times.
• Occasionally, they will have you analyze a
map/pyramid/chart/data set…. While applying a
sexy concept.
• For example…
• Impossible to predict what they will throw at
you  BUT always make sure you refer to
specific points on the diagram, chart, etc. while
explaining your answer.
• Let’s practice…
Do you see some trends?
Do not write like this:
“The map clearly shows that Japan’s
population has steadily grown older and is
in stage four of the demographic transition.”
Instead, use your head, write like this
instead…
“The map clearly shows that Japan’s
population has steadily grown older; for
instance, the chart shows that only about
7% of Japan’s population was over 65 in the
1970’s but that percent has more than
doubled to over 18% in about 2003. This is
evidence of being in stage four of the
demographic transition.”
What does it mean to be
overpopulated?
What’s unique about the population of: Java,
Nigeria, Gaza Strip and Uganda, Ukraine,
Japan, China, Ireland, Egypt & Canada?
Where Is This??
II. Population Theories
•
Thomas Malthus
published his essay in
1798
Malthus’ three
assumptions (This was
before the Industrial
Revolution)
– food grows __________
– pop grows __________
– Britain was a closed sys.
•
= People will eventually
run out of food
Malthus had five siblings, but he
only had three children
• I think I may fairly make two postulata. First, That food is
necessary to the existence of man. Secondly, That the
passion between the sexes is necessary and will remain
nearly in its present state. These two laws, ever since we
have had any knowledge of mankind, appear to have been
fixed laws of our nature, and, as we have not hitherto seen
any alteration in them, we have no right to conclude that
they will ever cease to be what they now are, without an
immediate act of power in that Being who first arranged the
system of the universe, and for the advantage of his
creatures, still executes, according to fixed laws, all its
various operations.
...
Assuming then my postulata as granted, I say, that the
power of population is indefinitely greater than the power
in the earth to produce subsistence for man. Population,
when unchecked, increases in a geometrical ratio.
– Malthus 1798
Malthus cont.
• Solutions to the problem?
– Moral restraint, but only for the poor!
– “Preventative checks” = lower birth rates
•
•
•
•
marrying later
Abstinence
Birth control (He didn’t anticipate this)
Homosexuality
– Positive checks = increase death rates
•
•
•
•
War
Disease
Natural Disaster
Famine
Poor Ben and Poor Esther
“Observations
Concerning the
Increase of Mankind.”
• Disagreed with
Malthus:
– Wealth restrains
growth not morality
– Food production stays
ahead of population
growth
Poor Esther
• The Conditions of Agricultural Growth: The
Economics of Agrarian Change under
Population Pressure
• Population density creates more agricultural
output  the number of people dictates the
type of agriculture practiced
– Humans are smart
– They will figure out ways of producing more
food on the same amount of land rather than
starve to death!
Neo Malthusian Geeks = is Earth a
closed system?
• There is a limit on population; it’s just higher than
Malthus estimated
• Gap b/t resources and population in some countries is
wider than Malthus assumed
• LDCs are getting relatively poorer and less access to
resources
• Population growth is depleting ALL resources NOT
just food production
– Wars and violence will occur b/t peoples competing for
resources
– Earth won’t sustain pollution or huge population numbers
III. Population concentrations
•
•
•
•
>Along coastlines
>Northern hemisphere
>Eurasia
<Less concentrated where?
Climates’ “carrying capacity”
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
•
The amount of life a particular place can
sustain
H. Subtropical (USA, China, Japan, Australia)
H. continental (USA, China, Japan, Europe)
Mediterranean
Wet and Dry trop (India)
Lowest carrying capacities:
(USA, Europe)
– Arid
– Polar/Sub-Polar
IV. Population Movements
Push and Pull factors of migration
Push =
Pull =
What is a refugee? IDP?
– International vs. internal (intranational)
– Difficult to define:
• What is a “well-founded fear of reprisal?”
• Migration because of fear or economic opportunity?
International Migration:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lOZmqIwqur4 (7:38)
Our text says there are 3 types of
Push & Pull factors
Political
Economic
Environmental
• Net migration
– Immigrants – emigrants (# out of 1000)
– Net in-migration
– Net out-migration
Ravenstein’s 12 laws of migration
Major movements in the 20th
1. East Asia, India, and Latin America
(Mexico) TO the U.S. late 20th.
(South/East. Europeans  U.S. early 20th)
2. Russians TO other Warsaw Pact countries
during Cold War
3. Kosovars TO surrounding countries during
ethnic cleansing of Serbia
4. White South Africans TO United States and
Western Europe in post-apartheid S. Africa
5. Americans from Rustbelt TO Sunbelt
6. Rwandans from Rwanda TO surrounding
countries
7. Cuban refugees during
Castro’s coup
• 15 Cubans Who Got to Fla. Bridge Sent Home
• MIAMI
Fifteen Cubans who fled their homeland and
landed on an abandoned bridge piling in the
Florida Keys were returned to their homeland
Monday after U.S. officials concluded that the
structure did not constitute dry land.
Under the U.S. government's "wet-foot, dryfoot" policy, Cubans who reach dry land in the
United States are usually allowed to remain in
this country, while those caught at sea are
sent back.
More Migrations…
8. Vietnam's "boat people“
http://www.boatpeople.org/
Read “A TRUE STORY” and “Boat People”
9. Jews from homes in U.S.S.R. to Israel and the U.S. in the
1990s
10. Muslims in India to Pakistan and Bangladesh after the
partition of India
11. Refugees from Sudan pouring into Ethiopia, Chad, and
Kenya
12. Eastern Europeans and Muslims from their homes TO
Western Europe
13. Workers in western China migrating TO Eastern China
and major Pacific Rim cities
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KNXg-kYk-LU
14. African Americans from South to North after Civil War
15. Ugandans from Uganda to neighboring African
countries
15. Uganda – Idi Amin
Estimates of
between
300,000 –
12 million
killed by him
Remade in America
NY Times interactive on Global Migration:
What patterns do you see? What are the causes, effects?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2009/03/10/us/2009031
0-immigration-explorer.html
Please complete the associated activity 
V. The Gravity Model
Used to predict the interaction between any
two hamlet/village/town/city/megalopolis
(Population city A)(Population city B)
Distance squared
Why is the distance in the denominator
squared?
How is the coefficient found?
• It is defined as the sum of the products of
the standard scores of the two measures
divided by the degrees of freedom:
• Note that this formula is very simple
It’s magic!
It is not necessary for you to know how
these correlation coefficients are created!
Just know it is really GEO!
1st Swine Flu Victim???
Review
FRQ Advice: When analyzing charts,
make specific references about specific
data on the chart/graph…
Do not make generalizations without
making specific references to data on the
chart.
For example, say “the cohort of females who
are 0-4 years old are #? more than in
cohort 5-9 which indicates that the
population is growing each year.
What % of men are 0-4 compared
with women? 85 plus?
In life and academia:
When a concept’s definition is really
short and concise it is NOT
____________
CONVERSELY
When a concept’s definition is really
long and complex it is ____________
What would a strong negative
relationship look like?
Draw one on your piece of paper with fifteen
plots
What is the difference between
population growth and population
change?
Population Change can be more
than just total # of people
• Gender
• Religion
• Ethnicity
Based upon this map, what areas
are under-populated?
In some areas of Europe there are comparatively
dense populations found in mountainous, rugged
country because of proximity to coal fields.