Climate change integrated
assessment methodology for
cross-sectoral adaptation and
vulnerability in Europe
Impacts of climate and socio-economic change using
the Integrated Assessment Platform
For further information contact Paula Harrison (email: Paula.Harrison@ouce.ox.ac.uk) or
Ian Holman (email: i.holman@cranfield.ac.uk) or visit the project website (www.climsave.eu)
Funded under the European Commission
Seventh Framework Programme
Contract Number: 244031
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Presentation structure
• Using the Integrated Assessment Platform for scenario
analysis.
• Scenario combinations (Europe & Scotland).
• Impact indicators.
• Results:
– Climate change only;
– Climate and socio-economic change.
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
• Conclusions.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Using the IAP for scenario analysis
• The CLIMSAVE IA Platform was used to run different
combinations of:
– Climate change only (assuming baseline socio-economics)
– Climate and socio-economic change
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Scenario selection areas on the (left) European and (right) Scottish IA Platform
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Scenario combinations
• European scenarios (50 runs):
– Low emissions scenario (B1) and low climate sensitivity for 5
GCMs (5 runs);
– High emissions scenario (A1) and high climate sensitivity for
5 GCMs (5 runs);
– Above climate scenarios combined with the four CLIMSAVE
socio-economic scenarios (40 runs).
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Scenario combinations
• Scottish scenarios (30 runs):
– across the range of UK Climate Projections;
– from the 10th percentile annual temperature increase
associated with low emissions to the 90th percentile annual
temperature increase associated with high emission (6 runs);
– Above climate scenarios combined with the four CLIMSAVE
socio-economic scenarios (24 runs).
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Impact indicators
• Thirteen indicators representing the 6 sectors analysed:
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Area of artificial surfaces
Biodiversity Vulnerability Index
Extensively farmed area
Food production
Forest area
Intensity index
Intensively farmed area
Irrigation usage
Landuse diversity
People flooded by a 1 in 100 year event
Unmanaged land
Water availability
Water Exploitation Index
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results (climate change only)
• Europe
Europe
Indicator
Min
West
Mix
Min
South
Max
Min
East
Max
Min
North
Max
Min
Max
Artificial surfaces (%)
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
People flooded (%)
0.5
0.9
1.7
2.6
0.5
1.1
-1.0
-0.4
0.1
0.2
Biodiversity VI (-)
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.0
0.3
-0.4
-0.1
Intensively farmed (%)
-3.6
-0.6
-5.7
1.9
-19.0
-9.1
-10.2
-6.0
5.4
10.0
Extensively farmed (%)
-7.1
-2.0
0.8
7.7
-8.3
4.2
1.6
8.3
-20.3
-17.9
Food production (%)
2
Forest area (km )
228.4 280.2
327.9 431.2
275.5 337.0 153.8 236.1 113.5 209.2
-1995 -1389
-2999 -1799
-1768
-904 -1799 -1072 -1817 -1059
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Unmanaged land (%)
10.7
20.5
3.5
14.2
9.3
33.9
4.9
15.0
19.0
22.3
Intensity index (-)
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
-0.1
0.0
-0.1
-0.1
Land use diversity (%)
-0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.1
Water availability (%)
-5090
287 -10397
68 -11080 -2419 -7377
-764
227
5608
0.0
0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.5
0.9
0.0
0.3
1.7
2.7
0.7
1.5
0.0
0.0
Water Exploitation Index (%)
3
3
Irrigation usage (10 m /yr)
Good degree of confidence in the direction of change for most indicators.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results (climate change only)
• Scotland
Scotland
Indicator
Min
Artificial surfaces (%)
People flooded (%)
Biodiversity VI (-)
Intensively farmed (%)
Extensively farmed (%)
Food production (%)
2
Forest area (km )
Unmanaged land (%)
Intensity index (-)
Land use diversity (%)
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Water availability (%)
Water Exploitation Index (%)
3
3
Irrigation usage (10 m /yr)
Mix
0.0
0.0
10.7 31.6
-0.40 -0.20
12.2 51.1
6.1 37.1
28.7 130.7
-50.5 -37.1
-0.3
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.0 47.0
-4.5 15.8
-8.4 23.4
6.1 17.8
Highlands and
Islands
Min
Max
0.0
0.0
21.8 47.6
-0.40 -0.10
38.9 74.9
-4.5 18.0
78.5 178.1
-58.4 -32.7
-0.3
0.3
0.0
0.0
0.0 12.0
-4.2 19.1
-12.5 19.5
5.7 14.1
Southern
Min
Max
Central
Min
Max
North-east
Min
Max
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.2
9.4
7.3 29.9
0.0 13.2
-0.30 -0.10 -0.30
0.0 -0.50 -0.30
-60.0 19.1 -35.4 65.5 37.0 85.9
20.7 89.6 -7.1 87.3 -32.1 30.5
-42.4 107.0 -36.8 119.7 36.3 130.2
-38.2 -27.0 -50.3 -24.4 -62.2 -36.8
0.0
0.1 -0.2
1.4 -0.2
1.4
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.0 78.0
0.0 139.0
0.0 63.0
-7.2
9.3 -6.1 13.4 -7.0
9.6
-7.9 68.0 -7.7 19.7 -7.5 30.6
-6.6 12.9
0.5 15.9 13.9 39.3
Reasonable degree of confidence in the direction of change for most
indicators at the national scale
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results (climate and socio-economic change)
• Europe
Europe
Indicator
Min
Artificial surfaces (%)
West
Max
Min
South
Max
Min
East
Max
Min
North
Max
Min
Max
0.0
1.2
0.0
2.5
0.0
1.0
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.6
-0.2
2.7
0.5
5.3
-0.2
2.5
-1.9
7.8
0.0
0.6
0.0
0.1
0.0
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.0
0.4
-0.4
0.0
Intensively farmed (%)
-5.5
26.7
-9.0
23.7
-20.7
21.4
-20.5
28.1
3.6
31.7
Extensively farmed (%)
-7.8
5.3
-3.8
7.2
-9.6
7.2
-3.5
12.4
-20.5
4.6
People flooded (%)
Biodiversity VI (-)
Food production (%)
2
Forest area (km )
199.2 353.0
302.4 502.5
197.8 397.7 156.8 349.9 101.5 286.3
-4159 -1451
-4340 -1822
-2977
-959 -4875
-653 -4279
-945
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Unmanaged land (%)
-1.5
22.5
-0.1
16.4
-0.2
33.4
-0.2
25.7
-4.4
26.2
Intensity index (-)
-0.1
0.1
-0.1
0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.2
0.1
-0.1
0.2
Land use diversity (%)
-0.1
0.0
-0.2
0.1
-0.3
0.1
-0.3
0.0
-0.2
0.2
Water availability (%)
-5090
287 -10397
68 -11080 -2419 -7377
-764
227
5608
0.0
0.3
-0.1
0.2
0.1
0.7
0.0
0.4
0.0
0.0
0.2
2.4
0.0
3.1
0.4
5.3
0.3
4.0
0.0
0.0
Water Exploitation Index (%)
3
3
Irrigation usage (10 m /yr)
Increasing uncertainty in the direction of change at both the European
and regional scales
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Results (climate and socio-economic change)
• Scotland
Scotland
Indicator
Min
Artificial surfaces (%)
People flooded (%)
Biodiversity VI (-)
Intensively farmed (%)
Extensively farmed (%)
Food production (%)
2
Forest area (km )
Unmanaged land (%)
Intensity index (-)
Land use diversity (%)
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
Water availability (%)
Water Exploitation Index (%)
3
3
Irrigation usage (10 m /yr)
Max
0.0 31.7
-2.3 63.3
-0.30 0.00
-54.4 46.1
-60.6 62.7
-9.7 93.2
-55.0 -9.4
-0.4 51.9
-0.1
0.0
0.0 223.0
-4.5 15.8
-57.7 57.5
-21.3 10.9
Highlands and
Islands
Min
Max
0.0 19.1
7.6 72.4
-0.30 -0.10
-37.7 93.9
-50.7 32.4
25.0 252.4
-70.5 -15.3
-0.4 25.8
-0.1
0.0
0.0 58.0
-4.2 19.1
-61.9 34.5
-28.3
9.0
Southern
Min
0.0
-11.8
-0.20
-93.5
-60.6
-83.6
-54.1
-0.3
-0.2
0.0
-7.2
-57.6
-18.7
Max
70.2
71.8
0.00
-30.8
108.3
21.9
-3.6
227.3
0.0
395.0
9.3
278.5
8.4
Central
Min
Max
North-east
Min
Max
0.0 27.8
0.0 45.4
-4.5 55.9 -15.1 67.9
-0.20 0.10 -0.40 0.00
-81.5 38.3 -64.9 74.4
-91.2 127.6 -64.8 99.9
-76.7 42.5 -31.2 141.3
-71.0 -2.1 -46.4 -1.4
-1.5 242.5 -0.4 93.8
-0.1
0.1 -0.2
0.1
2.0 601.0
0.0 319.0
-6.1 13.4 -7.0
9.6
-57.7 54.6 -52.2 110.6
-15.4 14.1 -7.0 27.2
Increasing uncertainty in the direction of change at both the national and
regional scales
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Significance of impacts
• Europe - between 82% and 92% of indicator-scenario
combinations were found to be statistically significantly
different from the baseline for Europe and the four regions
• Scotland - between 65% and 97% of indicator-scenario
combinations were found to be statistically significantly
different from the baseline for Scotland and the four
regions.
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
• These results clearly show that Europe and Scotland will be
significantly influenced by future change.
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Cross-sectoral summary (Europe)
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
↑
+
◦
↓
>
↕
Increase >50% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-negative change in the other
Increase >5% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-negative change in the other
Change < ±5% in both the 25th or 75th percentile
Increase >5% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-positive change in the other
Decrease >50% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-positive change in the other
Decrease > 5% in 75th percentile and Increase > 5% in 25th percentile – contracting distribution
Increase > 5% in 75th percentile and decrease > 5% in 25th percentile – widening distribution
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Cross-sectoral summary (Scotland)
2050 BL
2050 MacT
2050 MM
Scot H&I S C NE Scot H&I S C NE Scot H&I S C NE
Artificial surfaces (%)
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦ ↑ ↑
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
People flooded (1000s people)
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
Water Exploitation Index (-)
>
↓ ↑ ↕ ◦
↓ ↓ - ↓ +
↑ ↑ + ↑
3
Irrigation usage (m /yr)
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
Biodiversity VI (-)
↓ ↓ - ↓
+
Food production (cal/day)
↑ ↑ > ↑ ↑ ↕ ↕ ↓ ↓ ↑ ↑ >
> ↑
Intensively farmed (%)
◦
◦ ↓ ↑ ↑
◦
◦ ↓ ↓ ↓
◦
◦ ↓ ↓ Extensively farmed (%)
+
+
+ ↑ +
+
+ ↑ ↑ ↑
2
Forest area (km )
↓ - ↓ ↓
- ↓ - ↓ Unmanaged land (%)
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
↑
+ ↑ ↑ +
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
Intensity index (-)
◦
◦
◦
+
+
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
◦
www.CLIMSAVE.eu
↑
+
◦
↓
>
↕
Increase >50% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-negative change in the other
Increase >5% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-negative change in the other
Change < ±5% in both the 25th or 75th percentile
Increase >5% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-positive change in the other
Decrease >50% in either the 25th or 75th percentile with a non-positive change in the other
Decrease > 5% in 75th percentile and Increase > 5% in 25th percentile – contracting distribution
Increase > 5% in 75th percentile and decrease > 5% in 25th percentile – widening distribution
Climate Change Integrated Methodology for Cross-Sectoral Adaptation and Vulnerability in Europe
Conclusions
• Reasonable confidence in the direction of change due to
climate change for most indicators at all scales.
• Socio-economic change leads to increasing uncertainty in
the direction of change at all scales.
• Uncertainty increases with decreasing scale.
• Non-climatic pressures, such as future socio-economic
change, may be at least as, if not more, important than
climate change.
www.CLIMSAVE.eu