金融海嘯後的全球財富重分配
2011 宏觀流年
Ted Hong, Ph.D.
July 2011
前言摘要
• 經過上次的金融風暴, 對一位投資者來講, 賺
大錢已經不是最大的誘因, 避免損失才是考量
重點。風險控管變成投資的主軸。
• 投資者面臨的挑戰是如何控制風險，達到下
一個景氣繁榮。
• 台灣有關當局以及銀行面對歐美需求降低、
美國政府所可能採用的振興經濟新措施、中
國硬著陸以及未來新興產業可能影響，準備
好了嗎?
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OVERVIEW: 大綱
• SESSION I：UPDATE (大起大落，2011全球大事件)
– Recent Event Update
– Global Economic Slowdown and the triangular relationship
(全球經濟增長放緩)
• SESSION II：THE BANK’S ROLE IN THE NEXT BOOM
(後證券化之市場趨勢)
– Bank’s Role (銀行未來的角色)
– The Next Boom (未來的新興產業)
• SESSION III：THE OPPORTUNITY LANDSCAPE
(全球財富之重新分配)
– Think the unthinkable (美麗新世界)
– First priority: Control risk (控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮)
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SESSION I: 2011全球大事件
• Recent Event Update
– Jasmine Movement (茉莉花運動：全球油價推升及
原物料價格上漲)
– Japan Fukushima nuclear crisis (日本福島核輻射污
染：全球產業供應斷鏈危機)
• Global Economic Slowdown and the triangular
relationship (全球經濟增長放緩)
– US recovery slowdown (美國景氣復甦減緩)
– Europe sovereign debt crisis (歐洲主權信貸風暴升
高)
– China potential hard-landing (中國硬著陸的挑戰)
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茉莉花運動
人口金字塔理論
24.5 years
15-64 years: 62.7%
Median age: 24.5 years
15-64 years: 73.4%
Median age: 36.9 years
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26.9 years
Arab
uprisings
Tunisia
Egypt
Libya
Bahrain
Syria
Yemen
15-64 years: 66.8%
Median age: 36.9 years
36.9 years
15-64 years: 64%
Median age: 44.8 years
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44.8 years
茉莉花運動
人口金字塔理論 : China
15-64 years: 66.0%
Median age: 24.0 years
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24.0 years
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茉莉花運動
人口金字塔理論 : China
15-64 years: 73.6%
15-64
years:
Median
age:65.9%
35.5 years
Median age: 23.8 years
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35.5 years
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日本福島核輻射污染
Economic Impact of Japan’s Fukushima nuclear crisis
• Industry Supply Chain 全球產業供應斷鏈危機
– IT (Semiconductor, LED, & Consumer Electronics)
– Information and Communication Technology (ICT)
– Automotive
• Food & Beverage Contamination 食物污染
• Radioactive Effect of Japanese Yen
– Short-term appreciation (repatriation effect)
– Long-term depreciation
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International Stock Indices
Dow Jones Industrial Average: DJI
London Index: FTSE 100
12393
Australia Index: AORD
5945
4659
6547 (March 9, 2009)
3512 (March 3, 2009)
Japan Index: N225
3111 (March 2, 2009)
Hang Seng Index: HSI
Brazil Index:
BVSP
22398
9816
11921 (March 2, 2009)
7055 (March 10, 2009)
Taiwan Index: TWII
36741 (March 9, 2009)
Shanghai: SSE CI (000001.SS)
Russian Index: RTS.RS
8652
1907
2762
4637 (March 9, 2009)
1728 (Oct. 27, 2008)
April 2008 – June 2011
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498 (Jan 23, 2008)
Commodity & Energy Markets
2008Q2 - 2011Q2
Crude Oil Price in USD
Gold Price in USD/oz
S&P 500 Index
Corn Price in USD
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Global Rates Watch
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US Financial Market vs. Bank Failure 1934-2011
RTC Era
1989-1996
157 failed
Banks 2010
26 fails
up to
April 2011
Source: FDIC
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US Real Estate Market Watch
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US Bond Market: Treasury Curve Shift
Source: Beyondbond
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Outstanding Level of U.S. Debt
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Source: SIFMA
Issuance of US Mortgage Debt
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Global Economic Slowdown 跟著錢潮走-市場走向
• The triangular relationship (全球經濟增長放緩)
– China’s potential hard-landing (中國硬著陸的挑戰)
– U.S. recovery slowdown (美國景氣復甦減緩)
– Europe sovereign debt crisis (歐洲主權信貸風暴升高)
China
U.S.
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Europe
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SESSION II: The Bank’s Role in the Next Boom
• The Bank’s Role (銀行未來的角色)
– Traditional lending (傳統借貸)
– Government sponsored lending (政府贊助融資)
– Online payment (網上付款)
• Industries in The Next Boom (未來的新興產業)
– Cyberspace: Social media related industry (社群網絡媒體)
– Urbanization: LOHAS related industry (「樂活」相關行業)
– Demographic: Real Estate industry
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The Next Boom: Social Media 社群網絡媒體
Let Social Media IPO Show Begin
IPOed May
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19, 2011
Filed
June 2, 2011
Filed
July1, 2011
Filling
1st Q of 2012
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Virtual vs. Traditional Enterprises
Market Cap
Total:
Employees
216
89,000
287,000
204
179
26,316
2,100,000
180
100
33,700
196,200
103
43
17,700
205,000
45
528B
166,716
2,798,200
532B
Virtual: Less
employees,
produce more
values
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Market Cap
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The Next Boom: Urbanization
• An ongoing trend for growing urbanized middle-class.
• Taiwan and HK obviously are ahead of China.
• China 1st tier cities are adopting those concepts very
rapidly while 2nd tier are just realizing the ideas. It's
however will affect democracy thought which is
dangerous in its domestic politics.
• The business thought that surround those ideas are
growing bigger and are along with the theme of
cyberspace service industry because LOHAS
communities like leveraging social media to
communicate ideas and form the trend.
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LOHAS (Lifestyles of Health and Sustainability) 樂活族
•
•
健康、可持續的生活方式
生活特質
–
–
–
–
•
•
環保
節能
自然、精緻
健康
Population: US 23% (50 million), Japan 29% (37 million)
Market Size in US: $355 billion in consumer sales
– Green Technology
• certified green buildings, Energy Star appliances, etc.
• resource recovery and recycling
– Alternative Energy
• renewable power
• alternative Transportation like hybrids, electric vehicles, car sharing, etc.
– Natural Lifestyles
• natural home furnishings, apparel, etc.
• eco-tourism on excursions in nature
– Personal Health
• natural/organic food, personal care, supplements, etc.
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樂活族遵循準則 (LOHAS)
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
堅持自然溫和的輕慢運動。
不抽煙，也盡量不吸二手煙 。
電器不使用時關閉電源以節約能源。
盡量選擇有機食品和健康蔬食，避免高鹽，高油，高糖。
減少製造垃圾，實行垃圾分類和回收。
親近自然，選擇“有機”旅行。
注重自我，終身學習，關懷他人，分享樂活。
積極參加公益活動 ，如社區義工，支教等。
支持社會慈善事業，進行舊物捐贈和捐款。
節約用水，將馬桶和水龍頭的流量關小，一水多用。
向家人，朋友推薦與環境友善的產品。
減少一次性筷子和紙張的使用，珍惜森林資源。
減少對手機的使用。
穿天然棉麻絲材質的服裝。
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Real Estate (不動產不可缺席的角色)
2010 US Household Annual Expenditure
Source: Beyondbond
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2010 China and Taiwan Household Annual Expenditure
China (Urban)
United States
Taiwan
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Real Estate (不動產不可缺席的角色)
2010 US Household Annual Expenditure
34.43%
• Housing
15.61%
• Transportation
• Food
12.99%
• Insurance Pensions
11.15%
Virtual Growth
• Everything Else
10.45%
Entertainment
6.37%
• Health care
Education
5.49%
• Entertainment
Telecom
3.52%
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• Apparel and services
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控制風險，直達下一個景氣繁榮
“The no. 1 job of a professional investor
is not to make a lot of money, it’s to
control risk.”
- Howard Marks, Oak Tree Investment
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SESSION III：Beyond the Horizon 美麗新世界
• First priority: Control risk (控制風險，直達下一個
景氣繁榮)
–
–
–
–
Real Estate bubble (不動產泡沫化)
Commodity bubble (資產泡沫化)
Internet bubble (網路泡沫化)
Public health outbreak (公共衛生事件)
• New Globalization Game
– The G2 in the G-20
– Role of IMF and World Bank (國際貨幣基金會及世界銀行
的角色)
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Control Risk 避免風險
• Demographics and Real Estate 人口统计学周期與房
地產
– 面對人口老化及少子化 Aging Population
– Real Estate bubble 房地產泡沫: 人口统计学周期
• 人口增长的阶段，房价增长
• 人口老化并下降时，房价下跌
• Commodity bubble (資產泡沫化)
• Internet bubble (網路泡沫化)
– MCI
– Enron
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Control Risk 避免風險
• Public Health Outbreaks 公共衛生事件
– Mad cow disease
– 2003 SARS
– 2006 E. Coli outbreak
– 2008 中國毒奶粉事件 (Melamine三聚氰胺)
– 2009 H1N1
– 2011 臺灣飲料含毒塑化劑事件( DEHP塑化劑）
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G2 in G20: Global GDP Distribution 2000 vs. 2010
25.00%
2000
US
47284, 23.31%
GDP/Total GDP in %
20.00%
15.00%
10.00%
China
4382, 9.35%
Japan
42820, 8.68%
UK
36120, 3.57%
5.00%
Taiwan
18458, 0.68%
Luxembourg
108832, 0.09%
0.00%
0
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20000
40000
60000
GDP per Capita
32
80000
100000
Global Population vs. GDP 2010 in Cumulative %
Luxemboiurg
108832, 100.00%
100%
Cumulated GDP/Total GDP in %
90%
US
47284, 94.55%
80%
Japan
42820, 65.84%
70%
UK
36120, 46.81%
60%
50%
Taiwan
18458, 34.07%
40%
China
4382, 16.68%
30%
20%
India
1265, 3.76%
10%
0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Cumulated Population/Total Population
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80%
90%
100%
The IMF and World Bank 國際貨幣基金會及世界銀行的角色
• International Monetary Fund (IMF) & the World Bank were both
founded at the UN Monetary and Financial Conference in 1944.
• 182 member countries
• Major Responses:
– U.S. Savings and loan crisis (1986-95)
– Japan banking crisis (1990-99)
– Asian Banking crisis (1998-99)
– U.S. subprime crisis (2007-present)
– European sovereign debt crisis (2008-present)
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投資不是奇蹟
我們喜歡什麼、討厭什麼，
其實自己清楚的很。
我們害怕的是，未知的未來；
期待的也是，夢幻的未來。
於是，用僅有的過去經驗，決定下一步。
然而，卻寄望每一步，都能出現驚喜。
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For Additional Information contact
Ted@BeyondBond.com
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個人小傳
Dr. Hong has more than twenty years research and structuring experience in the
U.S. mortgages and securitization areas.
Dr. Hong has published intensive residential and commercial mortgage research
papers. He and his core team has provided intensive mortgage research,
investment advisory, risk management tools, customized fixed income
valuation analytics and trading technology for major financial institutions. In
addition, Dr. Hong has advised financial regulators in Taiwan and China for the
last years in securitization area.
Dr. Ted Hong is currently the president of Beyondbond, Inc. In the past 10
years, Dr. Hong has provided fixed income research, investment and risk
management analytics as well as trading platform for major global banks,
investment banks, mortgage lenders, large private equity and hedge funds, fixed
income exchanges, and clearing houses. Prior to that, Dr. Hong was a director
at Nomura Securities International and oversaw analytics and securitization
business in the mortgage areas. He and his core team members were
instrumental in developing the commercial mortgage-backed securities industry
and “jump-started the national real estate market” in the 1990’s according to
Fortune Magazine.
Dr. Hong has been repeatedly invited by regulators and financial institutions
from Taiwan and China such as People’s Bank of China, Peking University,
Financial Supervisory Commission (FSC), Central Bank of China, GreTai
Securities Market, National Taiwan University, Asia Money, and Taiwan
Academy of Banking and Finance (TABF) to give numerous speeches with
respect to the securitization markets. Dr. Hong is currently the senior advisor
and consultant for regulators in Taiwan such as FSC, TABF, and GreTai..
Dr. Hong received his Ph.D. in Economics from University of California at San
Diego. His specialized research topic was the non-stationary volatility modeling
in the time series area. Dr. Hong had several research articles jointly published
with Dr. Robert Engle, the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economics. His research
piece such as “An Options Approach to Commercial Mortgages and CMBS
Evaluation and Risk Analysis” has been repeatedly quoted and published.
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洪哲雄博士為 Beyondbond 公司執行長。具有超過二十年有關
資產證券化的發行、交易以及風險控管之實務經驗。 Beyondbond
為洪博士於1999 與野村證券合作創立之財務科技投資顧問公司。洪
博士曾任職於日本野村證券，美國花旗銀行，及帝
國儲貸等機構。任職野村期間，洪博士專責住宅抵押借款和商業不
動產證券化的硏究及發行，其商業不動產部門於九○年期間，穩居
美國不動產證券化之龍頭，並為財星雜誌譽為CMBS 之開創先驅。野
村目前為Beyondbond 的投資者和事業夥伴。
洪博士以其在財工及風控的市場實戰經驗﹐致力開發固定收益
資產證券即時交易及風控平台。僅以一家全球性的投資銀行券商為
例﹐目前每日在其平台處理交易之金額即超過兩佰億美元。其客戶
層包括從投行、銀行、私募基金、對沖基金到政府機
構如 Nomura, HSBC, BlackStone, LoneStar, Brevan Howard,
GinnieMae, 及DTCC。
近年來﹐從全球金融證券化市場的蓬勃發展到次貸金融危機，
由於洪博士成功的預測金融危機，使其不斷受到政府及民間團體邀
約，包括中國人行、北京大學、台灣大學、台灣央行、美國國會議
員、美國保險學會等機構，為金融同業有關證券化議題與國際經濟
現勢做不同層面之演講，並為台灣研訓院、金管會、聯徵、央行及
美國國會議員、銀行存保機構、黑石私募提供政策面之諮詢顧問。
洪博士為加州大學聖地牙哥分校經濟系博士，其論文指導教授
羅伯.恩格爾(Robert Engle) 為2003 年之諾貝爾經濟學領域得主，
恩格爾教授並被譽為美國最有商業影響力的財經大師。師生二人曾
多次相皆訪問亞洲演講並拜會各國首長。兩人有多篇共同著作，其
研究成果常被固定收益資產證券專書出版。例如「商業抵押貸款和
不動產證券化之評估和風險分析」專文即被一再反復引用及出版。