Tropical Deforestation in Indonesia
Katrina Severin
katseverin@gmail.com
Energy Law
Professor Fred Bosselman
December 8, 2010
Presentation Overview
1. Impacts of Deforestation
- Climate Change
2. Indonesia
- New democracy
- Demand for timber, palm oil, biofuels
3. International Policy
-REDD, Reduced Emissions
from Deforestation and Degradation
4. Future Prospects
2
1. The Role of Tropical Forests
• Filter air
• Store and sequester carbon
– Afforestation pluses
– Store 50% more carbon
• Keep the earth cool
– Regulate temperature
– Adaptation to climate change
• Regulate rainfall
• Nurture its biodiversity
• Provide valuable resources
3
Deforestation Trends
 In 2010, Indonesia fastest deforestation rate in the world
 40% lost since 1950
 In 1900, 170 million hectares, today 98 mh
 Losing 2% each year, 1.8 million hectares=7,000 sq miles
4
2. Indonesia
•Sumatra
•Kalimantan
•Sulawesi
5
Top Greenhouse Gas Emitters MtCO2e
Emission
Sources
U.S.
China
Indonesia
Brazil
Russia
India
Energy
5752
3720
275
303
1527
1051
Agriculture
442
1171
141
508
118
442
Forestry
-403
-47
2563
1372
54
-40
Waste
213
174
35
43
46
124
Total
6005
5017
3014
2316
1745
1577
peat decomposition
peat fires/slash and burn
forestry/land use changes
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2007 World Bank
Causes of Forest Loss in Indonesia
•Corrupt rule
•Weak protection of
communities rights
• Unenforced laws
•Short term economic
growth
Government
Communities
Legal
system
Timber,
Pulp,
Biofuels,
Palm Oil
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Suharto’s Kleptocracy
• 1967 ousted communists
• “New Order” regime
– Development agenda
– natural resource exploitation
• State claimed 90% of country’s forest
– Military as overseer of forests
• Timber concessions as political favors
– 62 million hectares to cronies
• Subsidies to timber industry
8
President Yudhoyono: any better?
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•
•
•
Former army general, elected in 2004
“Collusive Democracy”
Pledged 26% GHG emissions cut by 2020
Transparency International
– Corruption Perception Index 110/178 countries
– In Suharto’s day, top 5
• Tenure disputes and violent conflicts
over ownership rights
9
Government Promises...yawn
• 1980 Ban on log exports
• Suharto cornered market
• Government Reforestation Fund
• $5 billion embezzled
• Industrial tree plantation policy
• Permits are pretext to liquidate natural forest
• 2007 Announced plan to cut forest fires in half
• Up 60%
• 2011 2 year moratorium on new concessions
• New sizeable concessions just granted
10
Demand for Timber, Palm Oil, and
Biofuels
• Pulp and paper exports
-Demand 4.9 million m3/yr in 1990 to 36.7 million m3/yr in 2008
-APP and April largest exporters
-Forestry revenues $20 billion
• Largest producer of palm oil
– Home to young tree population, increased yields
and acreage
• Biofuels
– Rising global demand for alternatives to carbon-based fuels
– Cheap availability of feedstock
11
3. International Help?
• REDD-Reduced Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation
 Outcome of governments, NGOs, scientists, and investors
 Rich countries pay poor ones
• 2005: COP11 Montreal, Papua New Guinea and Costa Rica
propose including tropical deforestation into UNFCCC CDM
mechanism
• 2007: COP13 Bali , REDD approved
• 2009: COP15 Copenhagen
 Developed countries pledged $4.5 billion for REDD
 INVEST –PES
12
How Do You Count It?
• Recognizing seriousness of trend complicated by
difficulties in:
1. Creating baseline inventory
2. Determining area
3. Accounting for different rates of deforestation
4. Ineffective, inefficient and immature carbon
markets
5. Old growth primary v secondary forest
13
REDD in Indonesia
• Indonesia has 17.5% of all REDD projects globally
• Norway promises $1 billion
• APP will not move ahead with a 15,000 hectares
project in Riau province
• Indonesia’s National Council on Climate Change puts
opportunity cost of forgoing oil-palm plantation at
$30/ton.
14
COP16: Cancun, Focus REDD
• 2010: REDD Partnership, Oslo
•
•
•
•
58 countries
Norway and UK pledged cash by 2012
Forest-carbon credits or carbon tax?
EU- ETS needs to be updated
• Need to secure financing
• Mechanism for Measuring, Reporting and
Verification (MRV)
• But.... high level of mistrust
15
Prospects for success?
PNG
Indonesia
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Ownership is customary
Private sector developed
Heavy NGO presence
Political will
– Office of Climate Change
senior officials suspended
• Forest Authority instituted
timber-legality tracking
system
• FSC active
Ownership by state in flux
Private sector ill-developed
Heavy NGO presence
Poor political will
Government subsidies for
timber plantation
development only increasng
• Uniliver, Kraft, P & G
• FSC dropped major timber
players
16
4. Prospects for Slowing Deforestation
• Clearer definition of land ownership, title tracts, and
contracts
• Accountability of local government officials
• Withdrawal of development assistance if sustainability
goals not met
• US needs to show leadership
4. The Future?
• Begin a slow phase out ineffective subsidies of fossil fuels and
timber products
• Provide free legal assistance clinics in indigenous areas
• Develop partnerships between big multinationals
• Reign in China who is planting trees by the millions!
• Invest in a monitoring, verification, and auditing mechanisms
• ... Reformists are gaining ground !