Family Dollar - Tony Gauvin`s Web Site

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FAMILY DOLLAR, 2009

Strategic Management Case Study

Tony Gauvin, UMFK

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 1

Overview

Company Overview

A Brief history of Family Dollar

Existing Mission and Vision

Existing Objectives and Strategies

Current Issues

New Mission and Vision

External Assessment

Industry analysis

Opportunities and threats

EFE Matrix

CPM Matrix

Internal Assessment

Strengths and weaknesses

Organizational Chart

Financial Condition

IFE Matrix

3/30/2009

Strategy Formulation

SWOT Matrix

Space Matrix

IE Matrix

Grand Strategy Matrix

Matrix Analysis

QSPM Matrix

Strategic Plan for the Future

Objectives

Strategies

Implementation Issues

EPS/EBIT

Projected Financials

Evaluation

Balanced Scorecard

Key future ratios

Family Dollar Update

All Logos and Pictures from Family Dollar Media Kit

© Tony Gauvin, UMFK, 2009 2

History

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 3

The Founder

• Leon Levine

Leon and his brother Al took over father’s retail

(general) store in Rockingham, AL when Leon was

13 years old (1947)

In 1959 Leon opened first Family Dollar in

Charlotte, NC

Passed the reins to his son Howard in 1998

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 4

Growth

• By 1970’s, 100 th store in Brevard, NC and had gone Public

– 30% per year

– Single distribution center in Charlotte delivering to Carolinas and neighboring states

– 1982, 500 th store in in Brunswick, GA

• 1980’s – War with Wal-Mart

– Added 100 stores per year in areas Wal-mart would not, stay within 3 miles of customer base (Big Box vs. Small box)

– Everyday Low-price guarantee  low margins

• 1990 -> 2000’s Supply Chain Management

– New Distribution centers and POS systems

– 2003 – 5000 th store in Jacksonville FL

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 5

2009

50

th

Anniversary

14% market share among “Dollar Stores”

– Lags Dollar General 22%

44,000 employees (19,000 part-time)

6600 stores in 44 states

Target Customer

– “Female head of household in her mid 40’s making less than $40,000/year”

Revenue growth through new store growth

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 6

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 7

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 8

Existing vision

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 9

Existing Mission

Family’s Dollar’s mission states the three most important relationships to making our business successful; our customers, our associates, and our investors.

For our customers, we offer a compelling place to work by providing convenience and low prices;

For our associates, we offer a compelling place to work by providing exceptional opportunities and rewards for achievement;

For our investors, we offer a compelling place to invest by providing outstanding returns

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 10

4/11/2020

NEW MISSION AND VISION

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 11

Vision (proposed)

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 12

Mission (Proposed)

At Family Dollar, we strive to bring the best to our customers, offering everyday items at everyday low prices (1). We seek to meet our customer’s basic needs, providing them with common household products (2) at affordable prices while maintaining our growth and profitability to our loyal stockholders (5) utilizing the latest technology and through dedicated employees (4, 9). Our purpose has been to open stores where we strongly believe we can be competitive while meeting the demands of our customers (3). We continue to be responsible by contributing back to communities, society and charitable events (6, 7, 8).

1.

Customer

2.

Products or services

3.

Markets

4.

Technology

5.

Concern for survival, profitability, growth

6.

Philosophy

7.

Self-concept

8.

Concern for public image

9.

Concern for employees

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 13

SWOT

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 14

SWOT

Strengths

1.

Sells essential items with relatively inelastic demand

2.

Healthy gross profit margin

3.

Accepts food stamps

4.

Lower than industry average leverage ratio

5.

Being able to raise its dividends

6.

Better than industry average total asset turnover

7.

Its return on assets of 1.84% is higher than the industry average

8.

Its return on equity is 4%, higher than the industry average

9.

Approximately 90% of the company’s products are priced below $10

10.

In the past year, the company’s stock has outperformed the average retail industry

Weakness

1.

Does not do much advertising

2.

Limited market, solely in the U.S. only

3.

In the year 2008, the company’s market share dropped from 1.85% to 1.75%

4.

The company’s EPS is only 72% of the industry average and is not growing as quickly as the industry average

5.

Limited in variety of products being offered

6.

For the year 2008, the company’s overall sales only grew by 2.18% whereas the average industry sales grew by 5.31%

7.

Does not generate enough sales from its web site due to limited technology

8.

Higher than industry average quick ratio, indicating lack of long term re-investment

9.

The company’s long-term debt to equity ratio is only 31.4% of the industry average

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 15

SWOT

Opportunities

1.

The income for the middle class is diminishing, causing them to be more cautious with their expenditures

2.

The average household income is dropping due to weak economy

3.

The demand for low-priced items is growing

4.

The unemployment rate is increasing

5.

Smaller retailers are closing their stores and some have filed for bankruptcy

Threats

1.

High competition among large discount retailers

2.

Dollar General has higher market share compare to Family Dollar

3.

Per square foot, Dollar General is creating more sales

4.

The industry is sensitive to economic conditions

5.

Change in demographics due to purchasing habits

6.

Increase in tariffs and trade barriers

7.

Lack of quality control in products due to being imported from China and other countries

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 16

EXTERNAL AUDIT

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 17

4/11/2020

CPM

Family Dollar Dollar Tree Dollar General

Critical Success Factors

Store Locations

Merchandise Variety

Advertising

Customer Loyalty

Market Share

Customer Service

Product Quality

Price Competitiveness

Technology

Total

Weigh t

0.08

0.12

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.05

0.15

0.15

0.05

1.00

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

Ratin g

3

2

Weighte d Score

0.24

0.24

0.08

0.10

0.14

0.10

0.30

0.30

0.05

1.55

1

3

1

1

Ratin g

2

1

1

1

2

Weighte d Score

0.16

0.12

0.04

0.05

0.07

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.10

0.99

3

1

3

3

Ratin g

4

3

3

3

3

Weighted

Score

0.32

0.36

0.12

0.15

0.28

0.05

0.45

0.45

0.15

2.33

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 18

EFE

Key External Factors

Opportunities

1. The income for the middle class is diminishing, causing them to be more cautious with their expenditures

2. The average household income is dropping due to weak economy

3. The demand for low-priced items is growing

4. The unemployment rate is increasing

5. Smaller retailers are closing their stores and some have filed for bankruptcy

Threats

1. High competition among large discount retailers

2. Dollar General has higher market share compare to Family Dollar

3. Per square foot, Dollar General is creating more sales

4. The industry is sensitive to economic conditions

5. Change in demographics due to purchasing habits

6. Increase in tariffs and trade barriers

7. Lack of quality control in products due to being imported from and other countries

TOTAL

Weight

0.1

0.1

0.07

0.09

0.08

0.1

0.09

0.07

0.08

0.05

0.07

0.1

1.00

Rating Weighted Score

2

3

3

2

3

1

1

4

3

3

4

3

0.4

0.3

0.21

0.36

0.24

0.3

0.18

0.14

0.24

0.15

0.07

0.1

2.69

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 19

4/11/2020

Narrow Price

Competitive

Positioning map

Strong Online

Shopping

(ecommerce)

Dollar

Tree

Wal-

Mart

Dollar

General

Family

Dollar

Wide Price

Competitive

Weak Online

Shopping

(ecommerce)

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 20

INTERNAL AUDIT

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 21

Organizational Chart

11 person Board

CEO & CHAIRMAN OF

THE BOARD

PRESIDENT AND COO VICE CHAIR

EVP SUPPLY CHAIN

DC MANGERS

DC MANGERS

EVP STORE

OPERATIONS

REGIONAL

MANAGERS

STORE MANGERS

SVP GLOBAL

SOURCING

SVP SPACE

MANAGEMENT AND

INVENTORY

OPTIMIZATION

SVP REAL ESTATE

AND FACILITIES

SVP CUSTOMER

MARKETING

STORE MANGERS

SVP FOOD SCP HARDLINES

SVP IT

CIO

SVP FINANCE

CFO

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 22

4/11/2020

Selected Financial Ratios

Growth Rates %

Sales (Qtr vs.. year ago qtr)

Net Income (YTD vs.. YTD)

Net Income (Qtr vs. year ago qtr)

Sales (5-Year Annual Avg.)

Net Income (5-Year Annual Avg.)

Dividends (5-Year Annual Avg.)

Price Ratios

Current P/E Ratio

P/E Ratio 5-Year High

P/E Ratio 5-Year Low

Price/Sales Ratio

Price/Book Value

Price/Cash Flow Ratio

Profit Margins %

Gross Margin

Pre-Tax Margin

Net Profit Margin

5Yr Gross Margin (5-Year Avg.)

5Yr PreTax Margin (5-Year Avg.)

5Yr Net Profit Margin (5-Year Avg.)

Financial Condition

Debt/Equity Ratio

Current Ratio

Quick Ratio

Interest Coverage

Leverage Ratio

Book Value/Share

Family Dollar

2.60

25.00

13.10

6.98

2.46

9.94

Family Dollar

13.8

27.9

9.8

0.54

2.76

8.80

Family Dollar

34.8

6.1

3.9

33.7

5.5

3.5

Family Dollar

0.17

1.5

0.6

72.1

2.0

10.38

Industry

24.3

5.0

3.2

23.7

5.3

3.5

Industry

0.68

1.1

0.4

33.4

2.5

17.92

Industry

-1.50

-1.50

1.70

9.16

7.53

20.58

Industry

16.4

19.6

11.1

0.49

2.84

10.00

S&P 500

36.6

9.6

6.7

37.8

16.6

11.5

S&P 500

1.01

1.4

1.1

28.7

3.6

18.38

S&P 500

-7.40

-3.40

25.20

13.14

12.60

11.84

S&P 500

26.1

15.2

3.0

2.04

3.05

13.20

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

Source: www.moneycenteral.msn.com

23

08/09

08/08

09/07

08/06

08/05

08/04

08/03

08/02

09/01

08/00

4/11/2020

08/09

08/08

09/07

08/06

08/05

08/04

08/03

08/02

09/01

08/00

Avg P/E

13.80

13.30

18.80

19.00

21.60

23.10

23.10

25.50

21.90

18.70

Financial trends

Price/ Sales

0.58

0.50

0.64

0.57

0.58

0.87

1.46

1.19

1.41

0.97

Net Profit

Margin (%)

3.9

3.3

3.6

3.1

3.7

4.9

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.5

Book Value/ Share

$10.38

$8.98

$8.19

$8.04

$8.64

$7.99

$7.51

$6.66

$5.57

$4.66

Debt/ Equity

0.17

0.20

0.21

0.21

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

Return on Equity (%)

20.2

18.6

20.7

16.1

15.2

19.3

18.8

18.4

19.8

21.6

Return on Assets (%)

10.2

8.8

9.3

7.7

9.0

11.6

11.8

12.1

13.5

13.8

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK Source: www.moneycenteral.msn.com

24

Interest Coverage

35.3

25.0

22.3

24.2

NA

NA

NA

2120.7

538.7

NA

IFE

Key Internal Factors Weight

Strengths

1. Sells essential items with relatively inelastic demand

2. Healthy gross profit margin

3. Accepts food stamps

4. Lower than industry average leverage ratio

5. Being able to raise its dividends

6. Better than industry average total asset turnover

7. Its return on assets of 1.84% is higher than the industry average

8.

Its return on equity is 4%, higher than the industry average

9.

Approximately 90% of the company’s products are priced below $10

In the past year, the company’s stock has outperformed the average retail

10.

industry

Weaknesses

1. Does not do much advertising

2. Limited market, solely in the only

3. In the year 2008, the company's market share dropped from 1.85% to 1.75%

The company's EPS is only 72% of the industry average and is not growing

4. as quickly as the industry average

5. Limited in variety of products being offered

For the year 2008, the company's overall sales only grew by 2.18% whereas

6. the average industry sales grew by 5.31%

7. Does not generate enough sales from its web site due to limited technology

8.

Higher than industry average quick ratio, indicating lack of long term reinvestment

9.

The company's long-term debt to equity ratio is only 31.4% of the industry average

0.03

0.07

0.08

0.08

0.05

0.08

0.07

0.08

0.03

0.02

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 1.00

0.05

0.05

0.08

0.05

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.07

Rating Weighted

Score

0.14

0.16

0.16

0.05

0.16

0.14

0.16

0.06

0.02

2.45

0.15

0.15

0.32

0.15

0.09

0.09

0.06

0.09

0.21

0.09

2

2

1

2

2

2

2

2

1

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

3

4

3

25

STRATEGIC FORMULATION

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 26

SWOT Matrix

5.

6.

7.

2.

3.

4.

Strengths

1.

Sells essential items with relatively inelastic demand

Healthy gross profit margin

Accepts food stamps

Lower than industry average leverage ratio

8.

9.

10.

Being able to raise its dividends

Better than industry average total asset turnover

Its return on assets of 1.84% is higher than the industry average

Its return on equity is 4%, higher than the industry average

Approximately 90% of the company's products are priced below $10

In the past year, the company's stock has outperformed the average retail industry

Weaknesses

1.

2.

3.

Does not do much advertising

Limited market, solely in the only

In the year 2008, the company's market share dropped from 1.85% to 1.75%

4.

5.

6.

The company's EPS is only 72% of the industry average and is not growing as quickly as the industry average

Limited in variety of products being offered

For the year 2008, the company's overall sales

7.

8.

9.

only grew by 2.18% whereas the average industry sales grew by 5.31%

Does not generate enough sales from its web site due to limited technology

Higher than industry average quick ratio, indicating lack of long term re-investment

The company's long-term debt to equity ratio is only 31.4% of the industry average

3.

4.

5.

Opportunities

1.

The income for the middle class is diminishing, causing them to be more cautious with their expenditures

2.

The average household income is dropping due to weak economy

The demand for low-priced items is growing

The unemployment rate is increasing

Smaller retailers are closing their stores and some have filed for bankruptcy

S-O Strategies

1.

Implement some price cuts to improve sales (S2,

O1, S9, O3)

2.

Advertise to improve product variety and offerings

(S1, S2, S3, O4, O5)

W-O Strategies

1.

Increase number of stores in low income areas

(O2, O1, W3, W2)

2.

Expand product offerings such fruits and other perishable products (W3, W5, O3, O4, O5)

3.

4.

5.

6.

7.

Threats

1.

2.

High competition among large discount retailers

Dollar General has higher market share compare to

Family Dollar

Per square foot, Dollar General is creating more sales

The industry is sensitive to economic conditions

Change in demographics due to purchasing habits

Increase in tariffs and trade barriers

Lack of quality control in products due to being imported from and other countries

S-T Strategies

1.

Due to better return on assets ratio, the company can invest in technology, promoting online selling

(S6, T1, T5)

W-T Strategies

1.

Increase advertising by offering discounts, coupons, and other special offerings (W1, W2,

W3, T1, T2, T3, T4)

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 27

Space Matrix Data

Financial Stability (FS)

Return on Investment

Leverage

Liquidity

Working Capital

Cash Flow

Financial Stability (FS) Average

Competitive Stability (CS)

Market Share

Product Quality

Customer Loyalty

Competition’s Capacity Utilization

Technological Know-How

Competitive Stability (CS) Average

3

2

3

2

3

Environmental Stability (ES)

Unemployment

Technological Changes

Price Elasticity of Demand

Competitive Pressure

Barriers to Entry

2.6

Environmental Stability (ES) Average

-4

-3

-2

-3

-4

Industry Stability (IS)

Growth Potential

Financial Stability

Ease of Market Entry

Resource Utilization

Profit Potential

-3.2

Industry Stability (IS) Average

-1

-2

-3

-1

-2

-1.8

5

3

4

2

3

3.4

Y-axis: FS + ES = 2.6 + (-1.8) = 0.8 < 1

X-axis: CS + IS = (-3.2) + (3.4) = 0.2 < 1

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 28

4/11/2020

SPACE MATRIX

Conservative

CS

-6 -5 -4 -3 -2 -1

Defensive

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-6

ES

1

3

2

1

5

4

6

FS

Aggressive

2 3 4 5

Competitive

6

IS

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 29

Quadrant II

Grand Strategy Matrix

Rapid Market Growth

Quadrant I

Weak

Competitive

Position

Strong

Competitive

Position

4/11/2020

Quadrant III

Slow Market Growth

Quadrant IV

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

1.

Market Development

2.

Market Penetration

3.

Product Development

4.

Forward Integration

5.

Backward Integration

6.

Horizontal Integration

7.

Related Diversification

30

4/11/2020

High

3.0 to 3.99

IV

The EFE

Total

Weighted

Score

Medium

2.0 to 2.99

Low

1.0 to 1.99

VII

IE Matrix

Strong

3.0 to 4.0

I

The IFE Total Weighted Score

Average

2.0 to 2.99

II

Weak

1.0 to 1.99

III

IV

VIII

VI

IX

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 31

Matrix Analysis Summary

IE Alternative Strategies

Forward Integration

Backward Integration

Horizontal Integration

Market Penetration

Market Development

Product Development

Concentric

Diversification

Conglomerate

Diversification

Horizontal

Diversification

Joint Venture

Retrenchment

Divestiture

Liquidation

4/11/2020 x x

SPACE x x x x x x x x x

GRAND

X

X

X

X

X

X

X

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

COUNT

2

2

2

3

2

3

2

1

1

32

Key Factors

Opportunities expenditures

Threats

QSPM

TOTAL

Strengths

7. Lack of quality control in products due to being imported from and other countries

Weaknesses

SUBTOTAL industry average sales grew by 5.31%

SUM TOTAL ATTRACTIVENESS SCORE

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

0.07

0.08

0.08

0.05

0.08

0.07

0.08

0.03

0.02

1.00

0.05

0.05

0.08

0.05

0.03

0.03

0.02

0.03

0.07

0.03

Weight

0.1

0.1

0.07

0.09

0.08

0.1

0.09

0.07

0.08

0.05

0.07

0.1

1.00

0.07

0.24

0.32

---

0.16

0.14

0.08

---

0.02

2.06

4.02

0.05

0.1

0.32

0.1

---

0.09

---

---

0.28

0.09

1

3

4

---

2

2

1

---

1

1

2

4

2

---

3

---

---

4

3

1

---

2

3

3

---

---

Increase number of stores in low income areas

AS TAS

Increase advertising by offering discounts, coupons, and other special offerings

0 TAS

3

4

3

2

3

0.3

0.4

0.21

0.18

0.24

2

3

2

3

2

0.2

0.3

0.14

0.27

0.16

0.10

---

0.14

0.24

0.15

---

---

1.96

2

---

1

1

2

---

---

0.20

---

0.07

0.08

0.1

---

---

1.52

2

4

3

1

---

1

---

---

3

2

3

2

2

---

1

3

2

---

2

0.16

---

0.04

1.91

3.43

33

0.21

0.16

0.16

---

0.08

0.21

0.1

0.2

0.24

0.05

---

0.03

---

---

0.21

0.06

IMPLEMENTATION

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 34

Recommendations

1. Build additional stores in the U.S. Currently, many stores are closing and the price of real estate has dropped, in some areas, as high as 60%. Opening stores in lower priced areas or taking over a terminated lease can save the company many start-up fees.

1. Build/acquire 200 stores/year for next 3 years

2. Grow to 7000+ stores by 8/2012

2. Build stores in rural / high demand areas where unemployment is high and many are under state funding for food stamps.

1. Analysis: Current sales per sq foot ($6,984 million in sales / 6,600 stores

/ 7,500 average sq ft per store) = $141

2. Additional 200 stores x 7,500 average sq ft per store x $141 sales per sq ft = + $211,500,000 increase in sales each year for the next three years.

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 35

EPS/EBIT

$ Amount Needed: $20 million

Stock Price: $28.20

Tax Rate: 35.4%

Interest Rate: 5.00%

# Shares Outstanding: 138,797,782

4/11/2020

EBIT

Interest

EBT

Taxes

EAT

# Shares

EPS

Common Stock Financing

Recession Boom

$375,000,000

0

375,000,000

132,750,000

242,250,000

139,507,002

1.74

$500,000,0

00

0

500,000,00

0

177,000,00

0

323,000,00

0

139,507,00

2

2.32

$750,000,000

0

750,000,000

265,500,000

484,500,000

139,507,002

3.47

Recession

$375,000,000

1,000,000

374,000,000

132,396,000

241,604,000

138,797,782

1.74

Debt Financing

$500,000,000

1,000,000

499,000,000

176,646,000

322,354,000

138,797,782

2.32

Boom

$750,000,000

1,000,000

749,000,000

265,146,000

483,854,000

138,797,782

3.49

EBIT

Interest

EBT

Taxes

EAT

# Shares

EPS

70 Percent

Stock - 30

Percent Debt

Recession

$375,000,000

800,000

374,200,000

132,466,800

241,733,200

139,294,236

1.74

Boom

70 Percent

Debt - 30

Percent

Stock

Recession Boom

$500,000,0

00

800,000

499,200,00

0

176,716,80

0

322,483,20

0

139,294,23

6

2.32

$750,000,000 $375,000,000 $500,000,000 $750,000,000

800,000 200,000 200,000 200,000

749,200,000

265,216,800

483,983,200

139,294,236

3.47

374,800,000

132,679,200

242,120,800

139,010,548

1.74

499,800,000

176,929,200

322,870,800

139,010,548

2.32

749,800,000

265,429,200

484,370,800

139,010,548

3.48

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 36

Projected Financials

• Assumptions

Borrow $20 million over 5 years @ 5%

• 1 million interest in first year

Open 200 more stores per year

• $100 K in equipment per store

• Leases and inventory @ existing rates and expensed from revenue

• Depreciation over 5 year life $4m per annum

Generate $211.5 million additional income

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 37

Projected Income Statement

revenues total revenues cost of goods sold gross profit selling general & admin expenses, total other operating expenses, total operating income interest expense interest and investment income net interest expense ebt, excluding unusual items ebt, including unusual items income tax expense earnings from continuing operations

Net Income

Dividends

Shares Outstanding (basic)

Retained earnings

EPS

4/11/2020

2009

7,400.60

7,400.60

4,822.40

2,578.20

2,120.90

2,120.90

457.3

-12.9

6.6

-6.3

450.9

450.9

159.7

291.3

291.3

0.53

139.894

2010 Projected

7,612.10

7,612.10

4,960.22

2,651.88

2,181.51

2,181.51

470.37

-13.90

6.60

-7.30

463.07

463.07

164.01

299.06

299.06

0.57

139.894

219.32

2.08

2.14

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

Comments

Add $211.5 millions additional revenue

% of sales method

% of sales method additional $ 1 million interest same

0.354181 tax rate add 0.04 per annum

In millions except for

EPS

38

Projected Balance Sheet

Assets cash and equivalents short-term investments total cash and short term investments other receivables total receivables inventory prepaid expenses deferred tax assets, current total current assets gross property plant and equipment accumulated depreciation net property plant and equipment long-term investments other long-term assets total assets

438.9

5.8

444.7

12.6

12.6

993.8

59.2

82.7

1,593.00

2,190.10

-1,133.70

1,056.40

163.50

64.8

2,877.80

663.76

5.8

669.56

12.6

12.6

1,023.92

60.99

85.21

1,852.28

2,210.10

-1,134.70

1,075.40

163.50

64.80

3,155.98

adjust

Add 200/6600 more

Add 200/6600 more add 20 million add 4 million same same

0.00

liabilities & equity accounts payable accrued expenses current portion of long-term debt/capital lease current income taxes payable other current liabilities, total total current liabilities long-term debt deferred tax liability non-current other non-current liabilities total liabilities common stock additional paid in capital retained earnings treasury stock comprehensive income and other total common equity total equity total liabilities and equity

4/11/2020

528.1

285.5

544.1030303

294.1515152

--

1.7

91.1

906.3

250

44.8

236.6

1,437.70

14.5

210.3

1,387.90

-163.8

-9

1,440.10

1,440.10

2,877.80

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

1.8

91.1

931.1545455

270

50

236.6

1,487.75

14.5

210.3

1,607.22

-163.8

-9

1,668.22

1,668.22

3,155.97

add 200/6600 add 200/6600 fudge same add 20 million fudge same same same add retained earnings same same

39

EVALUATION

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 40

Area of Objectives

Customers

1 Satisfaction

2 Brand Identity

Employees

1 Quality and service training

2 Employee Satisfaction

Operations/Processes

1 Productivity

2 On tine delivery

Business Ethics/Natural

Environment

1 Waste reduction

2 Ethics Training

Financial

1 Sales and expenses reports

2 Ratio analysis

4/11/2020

Balanced Score Card

Measure or Target

Customer Survey results

Industry Reports

On site and webinars

Survey

Sales/man-hour increase 2%

Percentage unfilled shelf space volume of recyclable materials per store

# of ethics training sessions

2% sales increase

2% expense reduction better than Industry Avg,

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

Time

Expectation

Primary Responsibility

Yearly

Yearly

Yearly

Yearly

Quarterly

Quarterly

Marketing Department

Marketing Department

COO

Human resources

COO

COO

Quarterly

Yearly

Quarterly

Yearly

COO

Human resources

CFO

CFO

41

4/11/2020

Projected Ratios

2009 2010 projected

Liquidity Ratios

Current Ratio

Quick Ratio

Leverage Ratios

Debt-to-Total Assets Ratio

Debt-to-equity Ratio

Long-term debt-to-equity Ratio

Times-Interest-earned Ratio

Activity Ratios

Inventory Turns

Fixed Assets Turnover

Total Assets Turnover

Profitability Ratios

Gross Profit margins

Operating Profit Margin

Net Profit Margin

Return on Total Assets

Return on Stockholders equity

Earning per share

Price-earnings Ratio

1.76

0.66

0.50

1.00

0.17

35.45

7.45

7.01

2.57

1.99

0.89

0.47

0.89

0.16

33.84

7.43

7.08

2.41

0.35

0.06

0.04

0.10

0.20

2.08

14.54

Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK

0.35

0.06

0.04

0.09

0.18

2.14

20.02

2011 targets

2

1

0.5

0.85

0.15

36

7.5

7.1

2.6

0.38

0.07

0.05

0.11

0.25

2.25

15-20

42

FDO Update

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 43

FDO Updates

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 44

Stock Price History

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 45

Questions?

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 46

Sources

• "Family Dollar Stores, Inc." International Directory of Company Histories, Vol.62. St. James

Press, 2004

• Top Dollar Stores, 2009." 'Analyst & Investor Day.' [online] from http://www.bicworld.com/img/pdf/ADAY_FINAL_CP_DISTRIBUTION.pdf

[Published March

31, 2010], from MVI-Insights and USA Overview and Growth Forecast. Market Share

Reporter 2011.

• Datamonitor “Family Dollar Stores, Company profile 2009”, www.datamonitor.com , 13 Apr

2010

• “Family Dollar 2010 Analyst and Investor Update”, www.familydollar.com

, Investor Relations

• “Morgan Stanley 2011 Global Consumer Conference Presentation”, www.familydollar.com

,

Investor Relations

• “Family Dollar Annual Report, 2009””, www.familydollar.com

, Investor Relations

• Family Dollar Stores, Inc. – 2009, Joseph W. Lenard, Miami University, published in Strategic

Management, concepts and Cases 13 th edition, Fred David

• Family Dollar Stores, Inc. – 2009, case notes, Dr. Mernoush Banton

• Yahoo Finance, http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FDO+Interactive#symbol=fdo;range=my;compare=^gspc

;indicator=volume;charttype=line;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=undefined ;

4/11/2020 Copyright 2012, Tony Gauvin, UMFK 47

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