Oluwakemi Izomo
The Challenge: Leaving the Holocene
Maintaining a Safe Operating Space for Humanity
Hans-Peter Plag
August 28, 2014
http://www.mari.odu.edu
Global Temperature Changes
Global Sea Level Changes
<--Holocene-->
The Challenge: Leaving the Holocene
<------------Holocene------------>
Marcott et al., 2013
The
TheBaseline:
Holocene
was
“saferecent
The
Holocene,
thea most
During the Holocene, global temperature,
geological
epoch,
started
11,700
years
operating
space
for
humanity”
climate, and sea level were exceptionally
ago
stable.
Carbon Dioxide
Global Temperature in the PostHolocene
21st Century: PostHolocene
Holocene
<--------800,000 years------->
Our children will have to live on a planet unknown to humanity ...
We are leaving the Holocene:
Climate Change (***)
Ocean acidification (**)
Stratospheric ozone depletion (*)
Nitrogen (******) and Phosphorous cycles (**)
Global freshwater (*)
Change in land use (*)
Biodiversity loss (*******)
Atmospheric aerosols (?)
Chemical pollution (?)
The “global boundaries” of the “safe operating
space for humanity” (Rockström et al., 2009)
Climate change is a symptom, not the cause,
not the “sickness.”
We are in the middle of an “extinction-class
event”, a planetary accident.
Being out of scale
Metabolic Rate
Scaling law for metabolic rate:
(3/4)
Y = Y0 * M
human: Y = 50 -100 Watt
Extended metabolic rate:
YE = Y + CE
(C
:
total
energy
consumption)
E
Energy consumption per
capita:
Global Average: YE = 2,735
Watt
M
=
10
metric
tons
Worst case: YE = 22,000 Watt
M
=
170
metric
tons
Mass
Blue Whale
Being out of scale
Metabolic Rate
Scaling law for metabolic rate:
(3/4)
Y = Y0 * M
human: Y = 50 -100 Watt
Extended metabolic rate:
YE = Y + CE
(C
:
total
energy
consumption)
E
Energy consumption per
capita:
Global Average: YE = 2,735
Watt
M
=
10
metric
tons
Worst case: YE = 22,000 Watt
Humanity
has
an extended metabolic
M
=
170
metric
tons
Mass
14 Billion elephants: a heavy “load’ for
Earth
rate equivalent to 14 Billion elephants
(2.7 Billion for the U.S. alone)
It is embarassing how wasteful and inefficient we are ...
The Global Boundaries of the “safe operating
space for humanity” (Rockström et al., 2009)
We are pushing Earth out off the
Holocene, our safe operating space
...
Economy is the
link between
and
“Sustainable
Development
is ahumanity
development
Earth’s
life-support
system
that meets
the needs
of the presence while
safeguarding
Earth’s
life
support
systems,
on
Economy against humanity:
which
the
welfare
of
current
and
future
An economy that meets our needs by
generations
depends.”
(Griggs
et
al.,
2013)
burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s
Maintaining
a
Safe
Operating
Space
life-support system is like a doctor who
practices medicine by killing the patients.
Economy for humanity:
“An economy that meets our needs while
safeguarding Earth’s life-support system,
on which the welfare of current and future
generations depends.”
“What is good for Earth’s life support
system is good for humanity”
Contribution:
Understanding that most risks are human-made, self-inflicted
Post-2015:
Ecosystem-based risk reduction should start with the wasteful,
inefficient human ecosystem
Oluwakemi Izomo