Go, go, go said the bird: human kind
Cannot bear very much reality
T.S. Eliot (in Burnt Norten, Four Quartets)
... the problem is “not seeing what we don’t want to see”
(“willful blindness”)
John Casti, X-Events, 2012
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise:
Communicating the Science about a Global Challenge
The Syndrome: Climate Change and Sea Level Rise
The Prognosis: Expected Future Changes - A unparalleled Challenge for Humanity
The Diagnosis: The Anthropocene and Global Change
The Therapy: Lifestyle Change
Hans-Peter Plag
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise Initiative,
Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA
hpplag@odu.edu
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome
IPCC, 2013
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Temperature, 1900-2012, 5 Year averages of anomly compared to 1900-1905
QuickTime™ and a
decompressor
are needed to see this picture.
Syndrome
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Greenland
Gravity Recovery and Climate
Experiment (GRACE)
Measurement Principle
Syndrome
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Syndrome
Marcott et al., 2013
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
“Normal” variability:
- global temperature: 0.2oC/century (-0.5 to 0.5)
- global sea level:
1.5 m/century (-6.0 to 6.0)
20th century:
- global temperature: 0.7o C
- global sea level:
0.2 m
Syndrome
Climate Change and Sea Level Rise: The Observations
Climate change is happening:
- now, for certain
- everywhere, globally
Sea
level
change
is
happening:
- rapidly
now,
certain
- expected to get worse
- everywhere, globally
- rapidly
- expected to get worse
Syndrome
Expected Future Changes
Prognosis
Expected Future Changes
4
3
2
IPCC Assessment:
Very Likely
o
1C
Marcott et al., 2013
Expected Future Changes
Prognosis
Expected Future Changes
Example Hampton Roads
Today’s rate:
5 mm per year
(about 1.5 feet in 100 years)
Soon could get as high as:
20 mm per year
(about 6 feet in 100 years)
Prognosis
Modified from Church et al. (2010)
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
19.20.21.org:
19 cities in the world with
20 million people in the
21st century
“..., almost all of the cities to be studied in 19.20.21 are cities that
border the oceans of the world, and will be affected by the rise in sea
levels
Prognosis
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
Lovelock (and many others):
- Planet is on a run-away path; could reach a warm state
(5 C warmer) already in 2050
Germany
Prognosis
China
Australia
USA
Lovelock:
- Carrying capacity of the planet would be reduced to 1 Billion
- Recommendation: look for the lifeboats
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
Are we on Titanic after it hit the iceberg?
Captain E.J. Smith: “I cannot imagine any condition which
would cause a ship to founder. Modern shipbuilding has gone
beyond that.”
There were lifeboats for about half of
the passengers, but only 1/3 made it
into them I hope, we can do better.
Prognosis
An Unparalleled Challenge for Humanity?
11.1% Genghis Khan
Prognosis
The Anthropocene and Global Change
Population
1750
2000
GDP
CO2
CH4
Temperature
Floods
We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Cars
Diagnosis
Bill McKibben:
Earth becomes Eaarth ...
Deforestation
Extinction
The Anthropocene and Global Change
We are Reengineering the Planet ...
Diagnosis
The Anthropocene and Global Change
“Has human activity over the past two centuries
pushed the Earth out of the Holocene and into the
Anthropocene?”
James Syvitski, 2012.
The Anthropocene: A transition to a new epoch?
- a slowly hitting asteroid
- a planetary accident
- an extinction-class event
Plag, 2013
We have moved from to back seats of the
bus into the driver seat ...
Diagnosis
The
Anthropocene
and
Global
Change
Earth is on the
?
Edge
Humanity as a global
species is on the edge
We don’t know where the edges are, but
we keep running faster and faster ...
Diagnosis
(On The Edge @ RunningInFog)
“Safe operating space for
humanity”
Rockstroem et al., 2009
The Anthropocene and Global Change
The planet is on a path unknown to humanity ...
Small Steps no longer make much sense ...
We need a fundamental change of how we
are in the world ...
Diagnosis
Responding to the Challenge
What Could be this Fundamental Change?
Millennium Development Goals (2005-2015): Mostly not reached
Sustainable Development Goals (2015-2025): Proposed, look very good ...
SDGs:
1 Thriving lives and livelihoods
2 Sustainable food security
3 Secure sustainable water
4 Universal clean energy
5 Healthy and productive ecosystems
6 Governance for sustainable societies
Therapy
Griggs et al., 2013
Responding to the Challenge
Sustainable Development:
Brundtland et al., 1987: “Development that meets the needs of the presence without
compromising the ability of future generations to meet their needs”
Griggs et al., 2013: “Development that meets the needs of the presence while safeguarding
Earth’s life-support system, on which the welfare of current and future generation depends”
Griggs et al., 2013
Therapy
Economy is the link between humanity and
Earth’s life support system
Plag et al., 2013
Responding to the Challenge
Economy is the link between humanity and
Earth’s life-support system
An economy that meets our needs by
burning fossil fuels and destroying Earth’s
life-support system is like a doctor who
practices medicine by killing the patients.
Economy for humanity:
“An economy that meets our needs while
safeguarding Earth’s life-support system,
on which the welfare of current and future
generations depends.”
Therapy
Plag et al., 2013
“No problem can be solved with the same consciousness that created it.”
Albert Einstein
“It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his job
depends on not understanding it”
Upton Sinclair