REPUBLIC OF KAZAKHSTAN IN FIGURES REPUBLIC FO KAZAKHSTAN Содержание Executive summary 2 Economic growth and development 4 Fiscal management 20 Additional information 30 2 Executive Summary After a decade of exceptionally strong economic growth and development, Kazakhstan’s ability to withstand shocks has been tested since the onset of the global liquidity crisis in 2007. Against expectations by many, appropriate policy responses and strong financial ratios have enabled Kazakhstan, which was identified as being among the worst affected, to avoid a severe banking crisis with a run on deposits, a currency crisis, depletion of FX reserves and prolonged recession. Prudent macroeconomic policies in recent years have strengthened the authorities' position from which to navigate the financial storm. Despite of the deteriorating global economic outlook and a sharp fall in oil prices, by the Government there was maintained a positive growth of economy in 2009, by estimated 1.2%. The government’s key priorities for the next two years include the stabilisation of the financial sector, supporting the small and medium sized enterprise (SME) sector, develop the agro-industrial sector and the real estate market, advancing the diversification of the economy, boosting employment and supporting socially vulnerable groups of the population. Fiscal policies, despite the government’s planned support for the economy, remain conservative. The original oil price EXECUTIVE SUMMARY assumption in the 2010 budget is established at $ 65 pbl. and contingency plans have been made in case oil prices fall to $ 35 pbl. The consolidated fiscal balance in 2010-12 is forecast to continue to show moderate deficits due to low oil prices. State budget balances planned at around 4,1% of GDP in 2010 should be comfortably financed given the amounts of government’s assets and low debt levels. In January-July 2010 to December 2009 inflation amounted at 4.6 % (at appropriate period of 2009 – 4.1%). External liquidity position strengthened in the beginning of 2010 as a result of improved balance of payments dynamics. Due to comfortable export prices and continuous FDI inflows in 2010, the current account of balance of payments is expected positive. Long-term prospects remain good given Kazakhstan’s vast endowment of natural resources and the government policies to support the economy’s diversification through infrastructure development and improvements to the business environment. 3 Resilient fundamentals supported by a strong sovereign balance sheet… At the end of 2010 GDP growth amounted 7 %. For 2010 GDP growth is forecast at 7,0%. Positive growth first of all maintained due to oil prices increase and smart policy of the Government to overcome the crisis. Inflation potential in Kazakh economy in 2010 was – 7,8 %. In 2010 it is not expected any further inflation slowdown, due to having a number of risks. At the end of 2011 inflation is expected at 6-8%. ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT In 2009 GDP per capita grown up to $ 9000. Gross international reserves of Kazakhstan as of 01.05.2011 amounted $ 37 bln. Gross assets of National Fund as of 01.05.2011 amounted $ 36 bln. 4 Resilient fundamentals supported by a strong sovereign balance sheet… Key macroeconomic indicators 2003 GDP growth (%, change) 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 9,3 9,6 9,7 10,7 8,9 3,3 1,2 7,0 2068,0 2874,0 3771,0 5292,0 6772,0 8514,0 7257,1 9000 Current account (% to GDP) (0,9) (0,8) (1,8) (2,5) (7,9) (4,7) (2,6) 9,5 Trade balance (% to GDP) 11,9 15,7 18,1 18,1 14,4 25,1 15,2 16,5 Exports of goods (%, change) 32,0 55,7 37,4 37,0 24,8 49,1 (39,3) 72,2 International reserves ($ bln.) 5,0 9,3 7,1 19,1 17,6 19,9 23,2 37 FDI (% to GDP) 7,2 12,6 3,7 8,2 7,6 11,1 8,3 12,2** State debt (% to GDP) 15,0 11,4 8,1 6,7 5,9 6,4 13,0 - National Fund (% to GDP) 11,5 11,4 14,2 18,1 20,0 20,5 21,2 24,5 GDP per capita ($) ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT *Jan-Jul 2010, **Report data as of Q1 2010 Forecasts GDP, $ bln 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 report report report report forecast 104,9 133,4 115,3 146.9 132,8 12,8 16,1 17,0 21,6 19,9 8,9 3,3 1,2 7,0 7,0 GDP per capita, $ 6772 8514 7257,1 9000 8299,4 Inflation (CPI), % 18,8 9,5 6,2 7,8 6,0-8,0 Average price for oil, $/per bar. 72,7 97,6 61,9 79,6 107,2 Oil & Gas production, mln. tones 67,1 70,7 76,4 79,7 81 GDP, trillion tenge GDP growth, % National Bank and Statistics Agency 5 …and a government’s broad ranging Anti-Crisis Plan to limit the extent of the economic slowdown Real Estate GROW TH ECONOMIC From NFRK assets 120 bln tenge were directed for refinancing of mortgages and 240 bln tenge for solving of problems in real estate through Samruk-Kazyna’ Real Estate Fund, which purchases incomplete projects, completes construction and rents them to the public 48,8 bln tenge and 46,3 bln tenge were allocated to complete the construction of objects in Astana and Almaty. More than 20 thousand apartments were completed as a result. An additional 40,8 bln tenge was directed to purchase apartments by the Akimat of Astana. To date more than 5.5 thousand apartments have been purchased. At the same time, a public housing program for 2008-2010 was developed to resolve housing problems. The program, totaling 300 bln tenge, plans the construction of 28 million square meters of residential space SME’s From NFRK assets 120 bln tenge allocated for SME support: Moratorium on the immigration of non-skilled workforce and increasing control regarding illegal immigration Contracts to prevent mass layoffs and preserve employment signed with 8,000 large and medium enterprises which employ 900,000 people (Re-)schooling and training programs Additional unemployment benefits and various kinds of social aid Free school catering, improved pre-school education Funds allocated for food security and (vital goods such as meat, dry milk, sugar) Broad-ranging Road Map project to sustain/create jobs in the regions, in 2009 more than 380 thousand jobs created The Road Map to continue in 2010 with 143.1 bln tenge budgeted Other Industrial Sectors AND DEVELOPMENT Employment and Social Protection Funding of KazAgro via emission of bonds (120 bln tenge) to the Oil Fund 117 bln tenge via DAMU fund and commercial banks directed for financing of SMEs (70% for refinancing of existing projects and 30% for new projects at a rate of 12.5%); Channeling of investments into areas with high export potential 3 bln tenge will be directed to the direct lending for SME Mainly financial and institutional support for projects in the agriculture In the framework of SME support (by three tranches & the “Damu – Regions” program) more than 8 thousands of SME projects were financed and 11.4 thousands of jobs were supported Micro-project programs, operated through “Kazpost” offices Measures to reduce “red tape” and to improve business environment for SME, including changes to Private entrepreneurship law to limit the number and duration of state inspections/audits and changes to licensing system and food industry through the central state and regional budgets, the National Welfare Fund, and the state holding “KazAgro” Mainly infrastructure and electricity sector projects (120 bln tenge from the Oil Fund) 6 Disbursement of assets for the realization of Anti-crisis measures of the Government for the period of 2007-2009 Total anti-crisis funds allocated amount 3 029 bln tenge (20.2 bln. USD), including: ECONOMIC GROW TH AND DEVELOPMENT Anti-crisis measures on 5 directions – 1 691 bln tenge (11.3 bln USD) Reduction of minimal reserve requirements – 490 bln tenge (3.3 bln. USD) Reduction of tax pressure - 500 bln tenge (3.3 bln. USD) Implementation of new plan of further modernization of economy and realization of employment strategy (Road Map) - 348 bln tenge (2.3 bln. USD) 7 Disbursement of assets for the realization of Anti-crisis measures of the Government for the period of 2007-2010 mln. tenge 2007 2008 2009 February 2010 Item ECONOMIC GROW TH AND DEVELOPMENT allocated disbursed allocated disbursed 1 Financial sector stabilization 2 Houses construction 74 325 99 398 109 780 3 SME 48 800 85 417 4 Agroindustrial complex 24 400 50 422 5 Implementation of investment projects of Samruk-Kazyna allocated 557 540 disbursed allocated disbursed Balance 476 090 557 540 476 090 81 450 394 579 214 640 564 302 324 420 239 882 180 009 120 000 188 655 254 217 368 664 -114 447 13 360 120000 199 536 194 822 212 896 -18 074 120 000 27 200 120 000 27 200 92 800 Total 143 525 792 776 303 149 754 579 1 106 121 1 690 880 1 409 270 281 611 1 Anti-crisis measures 143 525 792 776 303 149 754 579 1 106 121 1 690 880 1 409 270 281 611 2 Reduction of minimal reserve requirements 490 000 490 000 3 Reduction of tax pressure 500 000 500 000 4 Implementation of new plan of further modernization of economy and realization of employment strategy (Road Map) 347 900 140 000 347 900 140 000 207 900 2 092 479 1 246 121 3 028 780 1 549 270 489 511 TOTAL 143 525 792 776 303 149 8 Strong economic growth in recent years fueled by private investment GDP (% change) and GDP per capita in $ Investment in % of GDP and % yoy change in % to GDP 8299,4 34,1 7552,6 9,6 9,3 DEVELOPMENT 27,7 26,4 9,7 26,2 27,0 6 772 23,0 23,1 20,6 16,6 14,8 13,5 3 771 11,1 4 3,3 3 2 068 GROW TH AND 28,8 7257,1 8,9 ECONOMIC 31,9 8 514 10,7 %, change 1,2 2,9 2003 2003 2004 2005 2006 Source: MEDT, Statistics Agency 2007 2008 2009 2010F 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 -4,8 2011F Source: Statistics Agency (2010 – Jan-Jun) 9 Outstanding and diverse natural resource wealth supports longterm growth prospects The country holds about 3.2% of the world’s total proven oil reserves. Overall prospective resources are estimated at between two and three times the size of proven reserves ECONOMIC GROW TH AND DEVELOPMENT Over the next decade, Kazakhstan is expected to double oil production on the back of higher production at the Tengiz field and launch of the Kashagan field, which is the fifth largest in the world by reserves The republic holds 1.4% and 3.4% of the total world reserves of natural gas and coal, respectively. Kazakhstan possesses all known useful minerals including major deposits of ferrous and non-ferrous metals, uranium and gold Kazakhstan is also a significant exporter of grain, ranking among the world’s leading ten exporting countries 10 Outstanding and diverse natural resource endowment supports long-term growth prospects Oil reserves (% total world reserves), 2009 Kazakhstan Mineral Resources (% World Total & Rank) 1 60% hr om iu m 13% ra ni um nc 3 C R 8% U 8% 5 Zi 8% ad m iu m 6% 5 C 6% 4 he ni um 4 re O I ro n te ol yb de nu m 6 M Ba ux i Source: BP Statistics, Broker’s research # Source: USGS World Rank 800 600 500 400 300 200 100 Source: Geological Committee of Ministry of Oil and Gas, RK a hi n C on e sia il In d as ai n kr U Br e S U hi le C an a da a C Af ric So ut h R us s ia lia st ra Au st an ak h Ka z Ar ab ia 0 ud i thousands USD 700 Sa DEVELOPMENT AND 3% 2% op pe r 2% 1% C OPEC 75% Kazakhstan 3% GROW TH 11 h US 2% Bi sm ut Russia 7% ECONOMIC 5 % of Worls Resource Base 9 Le ad 11 Other 13% 11 Rising energy production will partially compensate for the decline in prices Oil production (mln ton) 95,0 100 90 81,0 80,0 80 76,4 70,7 70 67,1 Oil Production 60 ECONOMIC GROW TH AND DEVELOPMENT 50 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 Source: MOG, MEDT Natural gas production (bln m3) 80 70 61,6 60 50 40 30 29,6 33,5 36 37 43,6 44,8 53,5 55,8 Gas Production 20 10 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: MOG, MEDT. 2009 – Statistics Agency operative data 12 New measures of the Government for the industry development The Program of accelerated industrial-innovative development of Kazakhstan for 2010-2014 (PAIID) Main goal of PAIID – accelerated industrialization and economic diversification to support long-term sustainable economic growth PAIID Objectives: Consolidation of public and private efforts and concentration of state resources for development of priority sectors of economy; Ensuring a favorable macroeconomic and investment climate and building effective institutions and Within the framework of PAIID the Industrialization Map is being implemented At present the Gross Industrialization Map includes 237 projects with amount of 7,26 trillion tenge. Republican Map includes 101 project with the sum of 6,76 trillion tenge, Regional Map includes 136 projects with the sum of 493 bln. tenge. At the end of first half of 2010 there were launched 72 projects with the sum of 381 bln. tenge, at the second half it is planned to accomplish 72 projects with the sum of 459 bln. tenge. GROW TH Expected results: Sustained pace of economic development with the annual EVA growth approx. to 50% ECONOMIC AND DEVELOPMENT mechanisms of government and business interaction Greater economic productivity Structural shifts in the economy and industry towards greater production of value-added products; increase in the proportion of manufacturing up to 12.5% Source: MEDP 13 Agriculture: Construction of grain elevator complex in Mangystau oblast, 6.9 bln. tenge 2 Construction industry and production of construction materials: Construction of cement plant 19.5 bln. tenge 3 Oil processing, infrastructure of oil & gas sector: Modernization and reconstruction of Atyrau Oil processing plant, 362.3 bln. tenge DEVELOPMENT 4 Metallurgy and production of finished metal products: Reconstruction of Taraz metallurgy plant, 11.6 bln. tenge 5 Chemical and pharmaceutical industry: Construction of Gas-Chemical complex in Atyrau oblast, 945 bln. tenge 6 Energy: Construction of Balkhash thermal power-station, 360.7 bln. tenge 7 Transport and telecommunication infrastructure: Reconstruction of “West Europe – West China” road, 825.1 bln. tenge ECONOMIC GROW TH 1 AND Selected projects of the Industrialization Map Source: MEDP 14 Multi- annual foreign investment projects ensures sustainability of FDI inflows despite the global crisis Kazakhstan has become a regional leader in attracting FDI, with the EU and the US amongst the largest investors in the country. Despite the crisis FDI inflows will continue to come into projects of oil & gas sector development. ECONOMIC GROW TH AND DEVELOPMENT FDI inflows have become increasingly diversified, flowing into various non-oil sectors of economy such as metallurgy manufacture and financial sector. 15 Multi- annual foreign investment projects ensures sustainability of FDI inflows despite the global crisis FDI growth, $ mln. 18 453 19 755 18 429 10 624 8 317 6 619 5208 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 GROW TH ECONOMIC 2008 2009 1Q 2010 Source: National Bank Exploration and mining sector dominate in FDI activity (Q1 2010) FDI inflow by several main countries (Q1 2010), % shares Manufactur e; 13% Finances; 5% Kor ea China AND DEVELOPMENT 4 624 3% 5% Holland Mining; Tr ade; 5% 35% Italy USA 3% Fr ance 6% 3% 24% Switzer land Other s; Constr uction; 3% 5% V ir gin isl. 12% 6% Ex plor ation; 42% Other s 29% Source: National Bank Tr aspor t and UK comm.; 3% 5% Source: National Bank 16 State budget deficits remain moderate in 2009-2011 as prudent fiscal policies are the focus At the end of 2009, the state budget deficit amounted to 3.1 %, which is modest given the Government’s significant Anti-Crisis support For 2010 the deficit is forecast to reach 4.4 %, it is projected to slowdown it up to 3.4 % by 2012 FISCAL MANAGEMENT Oil price projections in the budget during 2010-2012 are set at $65 per barrel 17 State budget deficits remain moderate in 2009-2012 as prudent fiscal policies are maintained State budget indicators and forecasts 2009-2012 (KZT bln) Item Receipts Tax bln. % to tenge GDP 2011 4110,3 21,3 bln. tenge % to GDP 2012 4413,4 21,0 14,0 2350,0 13,5 2817,5 14,6 3022,4 14,4 136,2 0,9 66,8 0,4 69,2 0,4 73,0 0,3 1104,6 7,0 1200,0 6,9 1200,0 6,2 1200,0 5,7 4003,0 25,2 4267,4 24,5 4844,3 25,1 5149,2 24,5 Current programs 2966,5 18,7 3255,8 18,7 3711,5 19,2 4381,3 20,8 Development programs 1036,5 6,5 1011,6 5,8 1132,8 5,9 767,9 3,7 -492,7 -3,1 -721,0 -4,1 -734,0 -3,8 -735,8 -3,5 Government debt volume GDP Average exchange rate, tenge to $ World oil price (Brent), $/bar. 1618,0 15887,8 147,5 61,9 10,2 2339,0 17411,9 150,0 60,0 13,4 3073,0 19316,0 150,0 60,0 15,9 3808,8 21022,9 150,0 60,0 18,1 National Fund assets ($ mln.) 24280,6 22,3 27586,6 23,8 33256,7 25,8 39634,8 28,3 Transfer from National Fund Expenditures Deficit (Surplus) MANAGEMENT bln. % to tenge GDP 2010 3546,4 20,4 2228,7 Non-tax FISCAL bln. % to tenge GDP 2009 3510,3 22,1 Source: Ministry of Finance 18 The consolidated budget feels the impact of lower oil prices, continues to show a moderate deficit Consolidated budget indicators and forecasts 2009-2012 (KZT bln)* 2009 Item 2010 bln. % to GDP tenge 3783,8 23,8 2406,3 15,1 1377,4 8,7 Receipts Oil Non-oil 2011 bln. % to GDP tenge 3841,7 22,1 2473,0 14,2 1368,7 7,9 2012 bln. % to GDP tenge 4992,2 25,8 3126,5 16,2 1865,7 9,7 bln. % to GDP tenge 5307,0 25,2 3372,9 16,0 1934,1 9,2 Expenditures 4005,9 25,2 4269,3 24,5 4846,7 25,1 5152,0 24,5 Current programs Development programs Balance 2969,4 1036,5 -222,1 18,7 6,5 -1,4 3257,8 1011,6 -427,6 18,7 5,8 -2,5 3713,9 1132,8 145,5 19,2 5,9 0,8 4384,1 767,9 154,9 20,9 3,7 0,7 Consolidated budget, % of GDP Receipts Expenditures Balance FISCAL MANAGEMENT 27 25,2 7 25,1 24,5 17 23,8 24,5 25,2 25,8 22,1 -1,4 -2,5 0,7 0,8 -3 2009 2010 2011 2012 Source: MEDT 19 Authorities continue to demonstrate commitment to conservative fiscal policy despite the economic crisis State budget expenditures 2007-2012 show stable increase in expenses with reduction of development expenses. In state budget revenues the transfers increase proportionally to increase of tax receipts. In 2009 to 2012 it is projected to increase of tax receipts by 1.4 times. FISCAL MANAGEMENT The state budget deficit increased by 1.7 times from 2007 to 2009. As a result the Government’s anti-crisis measures and conservative fiscal policy it is the deficit is expected to remain at around 3,5 % of GDP through 2012. 20 Authorities continue to demonstrate commitment to conservative fiscal policy despite the economic crisis State budget expenditures (KZT bln and % GDP) 6 000 Government revenues (bln KZT) State budget revenue (excl. receipts to National Fund) State budget expenditures State budget expenditures in % to GDP Revenue, total 30,00 25,00 5 000 20,00 4 000 15,00 3 000 10,00 2 000 1 000 2004 5,00 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 0,00 2012 Government expenditures (bln KZT) Current expenditures MANAGEMENT FISCAL 1 943,50 2482,4 Transfers 3 505,3 2 629,8 2 356,0 4 342,5 4 134,4 3 541,5 2 819,5 3 022,4 2 817,5 2 228,7 2 350,0 1 104,6 1 072,0 1 266,0 1 171,0 1 075,7 258,0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Balance (50) 2007 2008 2009 in % to GDP 2010 2011 0 2012 (150) (250) 3255,8 3711,5 4381,3 (350) (450) -215,3 -1,8 -1,5 -2,1 -333,2 -2 -2,5 -3,1 -3 (550) -492,7 -4,1 -3,8 -3,5 -3,5 (650) 2007 2008 2009 2010 -0,5 -1 1011,6 1 170,00 2966,5 Tax receipts 4 034,4 Development expenditures 1132,8 1036,5 000 500 000 500 000 500 000 500 000 500 0 State budget deficit for 2007-2012 767,9 1891,4 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 1 1 2011 2012 (750) -4 -721 -734 -735,8 -4,5 Source: Ministry of Finance 21 New tax code aims to support economic diversification and general economic activity Republican budget for 2010-2012 provides for retention of current 20% CIT rate for 2010-2012. Efficient tax system that supports diversification of the economy and expansion of tax base through legalization of shadow business. FISCAL MANAGEMENT Kazakhstan is ranked 52nd in Paying taxes metric by the World Bank’s “Doing business” report in 2010. 22 New tax code aims to support economic diversification and general economic activity Measures in the New Tax Code Accommodation of all changes/amendments/interpretations to the Tax Code made during the last 5 years Adjustment of the Tax Code for the application of IAS, IFRS Revocation of advance payments of corporate income tax for small business enterprises Extension of loss deferral period to 10 years Stage-by-stage introduction of traditional VAT payment scheme (introduce reimbursement of VAT receivables from the budget) Introduction of common social tax rate (11%) instead of regressive scale Reduction of VAT to 12% from 13% Corporate Income Tax Reform Optimization of investment tax preferences Revocation of advance payments of corporate income tax for small business enterprises Extension of loss deferral period from 3 to 10 years FISCAL MANAGEMENT Reduction of CIT from 30% to 20% in 2009 Allow processing industries to file for tax deductions for construction expenditures and cost of fixed assets within a three year period Taxation of Mineral Extractive Sector Replace the old royalty-based tax system with the new Mineral Extractive Tax that directs flow of the new tax by oil and tax companies to the National Fund and by other energy sector to the budget Change the calculation of rent taxes, including change of base price levels from selling price to the world price levels and inclusion of coal in the tax base Starting from January 2009 the government stopped issuing production sharing agreements (existing agreements will stay in force) Increase tax burden of the energy sector from 49% to 62% (at base price 72.7 $/b) Introduction of a more flexible EPT calculation 23 Very low sovereign debt and substantial assets allow the government to finance comfortably the projected deficits Public sector gross debt (%GDP) Assets of National Fund (% GDP and US$) 40 19,7 17,4 $ bln. 16,6 15,0 13,0 11,4 8,1 6,7 5,9 % to GDP 34,9 35 30,3 30 6,4 27,5 25 23,4 22,3 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010F 21,3 20 18,1 22,3 20,6 Public sector debt breakdown as of January 1, 2010, bln. tenge 1 500 1 200 14,2 15 Government National Bank Local auth. Guaranteed Debt by guarantee 14,7 1289,0 11,5 11,4 10 8,1 FISCAL MANAGEMENT 900 4,9 473,3 600 5 329,1 300 0,0 2,5 72,1 0 70,6 3,5 7,4 39,3 0 0 External Source: Ministry of Finance Domestic 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010f Source: Ministry of Finance, MEDT 24 Creation of a Customs Union Perspectives of Customs Union (CU) in framework of EurAzEC 1. Increase of trade turnover between countries (Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia). For local enterprises the market will expand to around 170 mln people. 2. As a result of unification of customs tariffs on goods from third countries, the weighted average tariff almost doubled. This will promote the decrease of reliance on imports. This will give the chance to Kazakh goods to penetrate the markets which were firmly occupied by goods from third countries (particularly, from China) due to the difficulty of price competition. 3. Improving the investment and business climate in Kazakhstan (lower VAT, employment taxes) should help to secure foreign investment inflows to non-oil sectors aimed at common market. 4. The customs union will be a stimulus for cooperation of complementary enterprises and creation of vertically-integrated corporations in Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION 5. Unification of tax tariffs will lead to its growth for Kazakhstan, and with additional investment attracted would lead to increase state budget revenues 25