Team Introduction
• Nuka Research and Planning Group, LLC.
• Pearson Consulting, LLC.
• Baldwin and Butler
• Cape International
• Moran Environmental Recovery
• Moran Towing
• Northern Economics
• The Glosten Associates
Vessel Traffic Update
Recent Vessel
Traffic Figures
Future Vessel
Traffic
Recent Vessel Traffic
• Year
d
• 2007
• 2008
• 2009
• 2011
Westbound
3581
3274
2886
3178
Eastboun
890
957
1088
1355
Anticipated Vessel Traffic
• Two potential sources of additional
traffic have emerged since Phase A was
completed:
– Proposed Canadian natural gas and crude
oil pipelines to the Pacific Coast
– Alaska OCS and oil shale development
Liquefied Natural Gas
• Kitimat LNG Venture (Apache, EOG
Resources, Encana)
• Canada LNG (Shell Canada, Mitsubishi,
PetroChina, Korea Gas) (Kitimat)
• BG Group and Spectra Energy (Prince
Rupert)
• ExxonMobil and Imperial Oil
• First 3 are 6.9 bcfd; 2.5 ships per day-900
ships per year
Crude Oil Pipeline Proposals
• Kinder Morgan to expand their pipeline
from Alberta to Vancouver
– Would result in an additional 240 tankers
per year carrying crude oil
• Enbridge to build new pipeline to Kitimat
– Approximately 180 to 190 tankers carrying
crude oil per year
Alaska OCS and Oil Shale
• Potential to displace Canadian crude,
which presently moves by pipeline to
Washington State refineries.
• These refineries were built to process
ANS crude and are more profitable with
ANS crude than Canadian crude.
• The Canadian crude would then be
exported to Asia resulting in about 60
additional tankers per year
Task 1 & 2 Work Plan
Developing an
Integrated
Response
System for the
Aleutians
Scope
An Integrated Response
System/Organization for the Aleutians
• Emergency Towing
• Salvage/Marine Firefighting
• Open Water Response
• Nearshore Response
• Operating Organization
Vision
Analyze all available marine response
services for the Aleutians. Determine
which services will can be most effective
and then develop a plan for a response
system that will provide an suite of
response capabilities optimized for the
Aleutians. Our measure of success will be
that the plan is adopted and implemented.
Goal
Prevent/minimize future environmental
harm to the people and natural resources of
the Aleutians Subarea by developing an
integrated response system that will:
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Provide an optimum set of response services
Be congruent with State/Federal regulations
Be cost effective
Be feasible and practical
Supported and accepted by marine industry
Objectives
1) Provide an Analysis of:
• Emergency Towing
• Salvage and Marine Firefighting
• Oil Spill Response
– Open Water Response
– Nearshore Response
• Management Organizations
Objectives
2) Describe an Optimal Response
System considering operating
environment, logistics, cost, and
benefits. Provide a plan that will be
a blueprint of an organization that
can implement this optimized
system.
Work Plan
• Regulatory Resource Requirements Analysis
setting a benchmark to build toward
• Response Gap Analysis
evaluate how often a service may be
delivered
• Emergency Towing Analysis
• Salvage and Marine Firefighting Analysis
• Oil Spill Response Analysis
• Management System Analysis
Work Plan
• Describe Optimal Response System
• Conduct a Benefit Cost Analysis on this
System
• Draft Report
• Review
• Final Report
• Integrate into the Subarea Plan
Assumptions
• The Non-tank Vessel Regulations will be adopted
and provide a driver for those vessel to
participate in a response organization
• The regulated marine industry will support a
reasonable and effect response capability in the
Aleutians
• The system will have to be phased in over time
• The system will serve the Aleutians, but will
support and be supported by other areas
• The Subarea Committee may embody this plan in
the SCP
Regulatory Resource Analysis
• Compile the applicable State/Federal regulations
• Without considering Alternate Compliance,
estimate the resources necessary to provide the
services necessary to comply with these
regulations for:
– 600,000 bbl Crude Oil Tanker
– 68,000 GT Containership >4,500 TEU
• Estimate the capital and operating costs to
provide these services
• Use these costs as the design benchmark for
planning a response system for the Aleutians
Response Gap Analysis
• Response Gap is the percentage of time that a
particular service can be utilized
• Hind cast technique to evaluate how often a
particular service can be effectively used
• Buoy database for winds, sea state, temperature
• Airport database for visibility
• Determine the limitations for a particular service
and see how often these services were exceed in
the past
Observation Locations
Emergency Towing Vessels
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Results from Phase A
– 6 locations and 16 scenarios
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Results from Phase A
– Five Risk Reduction Options
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•
Dedicated towing vessel(s)
Non-dedicated towing vessel(s)
Seasonal towing vessel(s)
Vessels of opportunity
Some combination of the above
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Tug Operating environment
– Candidate ships from transit study
– 16 scenarios from Phase A
– Weather conditions from environmental
study
– Number of tugs from location study
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Propose Tug Mission Requirements
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Limited to emergency towing
Bollard pull/HP
Seakeeping abilities
Size, crew, equipment
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Tug Location Study
– Use Phase A
scenarios (6 locations)
– Identify potential home ports
– Identify required infrastructure
improvements
– Determine required distances and speeds
– Input for number of tugs required
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Tug options
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Vessels of opportunity
Best available technology world wide
Best available technology in the US
Optimal design for the Aleutians (high
speed)
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Vessel(s) of opportunity
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Representative available vessels
Enumerate specifications/capabilities
Time/ability to hand off their tows
Location in the Aleutians
Time periods in the Aleutians
Capability gap analysis
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Best available technology evaluation
– Evaluate both world wide and Jones Act
vessels
– Enumerate specs and capabilities
• Speed/range/bollard pull/crew
– Number Required
– Cost to procure design
– Cost to modify design to
US standards (foreign design)
Emergency Towing Vessels
• Best available technology (cont.)
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Cost to modify for Aleutian Service
Cost to construct vessel in US
Cost to charter vessel (Jones Act vessel)
Operating costs
• Dedicated vessel
• Non-dedicated vessel
• Seasonal dedicated vessel
– Capability Gap Analysis
Emergency Towing Vessels
• High Speed ETV design
– Meet mission requirements with higher
speed to reduce number of vessels
– Proposed speed
• 30-40 knots
– Propulsion study
• Diesel/gas turbines
• Propellers/water jets
• High speed AND bollard pull
Emergency Towing Vessels
• High Speed ETV design (cont.)
– Seakeeping Options
• Length
• Bow design
• Roll reduction methods
– Proposed Range
• 700-950 Nautical miles in 24 hrs
– Winch options
• Weight vs. capabilities
Emergency Towing Vessels
• High Speed ETV design evaluation
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Number Required (assumed to be one)
Cost/time to design
Cost to construct vessel in US
Operating costs
• Dedicated vessel
• Non-dedicated vessel
• Seasonal dedicated vessel
– Capability Gap Analysis
?
Salvage Analysis
• In coordination with the regulatory
resource requirement analysis and
as a result of the Phase A
recommendations - Analyze the four USCG approved
Salvage Contractors ability to service
the Aleutian Islands and to meet
increased planning requirements
Salvage Analysis
• Review the need of any additional
equipment / services to be stationed
in the Aleutians and if so, the
requirements and recommended
location of same
Oil Spill Response Analysis
• Planning Vs. Performance
- “Resourcing” to meet full planning
standards (current) is not likely feasible
- Resource bolstering at some level is
needed
- Other external factors and “gap
analyses” are critical
Oil Spill Response Analysis
 Planned Approach for Resource
Requirements
- Regulatory Analysis
- Consider offshore vs. near shore
environments
• Salvage & Firefighting: likely “point of
spear” in offshore scenarios
- Consider alternative methods &
technologies
Oil Spill Response Analysis
- Evaluate Effectiveness through
Response Gap Analysis
- Feasibility – is it practical &
sustainable?
• Logistics, economics
Oil Spill Response Analysis
• Other Considerations:
- Research completed to date vs. new
assumptions
- Understand trade-offs between
supplemental resources vs. cascading
(performance vs. planning & regulatory
implications)
Oil Spill Response Analysis
• Other Considerations:
- Impact of on-going USCG/BSSE/EPA
work groups
• Effective Daily Recovery Capacity
(EDRC)
• Response Resource Inventory (RRI)
• Equipment Surge
• Subpart J of the National
Contingency Plan
Management System Analysis
• Evaluation of existing OSRO
models
– Utilize survey with standard
questions
• business form
• membership, subscription etc. for
coverage
• general rate structures
• governance
Management System Analysis
• Identification of model based on
services provided [some / all ]
– OSRO services
– SMFF services
– WSMC / SERVS – 72 hour initial
response role
– Planning – preparedness over time
Management System Analysis
• Consideration of cost allocation
options based on profile of covered
fleet
– Vessel type [ NTV, TV, other]
– Vessel size
– Fuel / cargo type
Management System Analysis
• Consideration of business form to
manage resources
– Acquire resources
– Contract for resources
– Utilize mix based on type of resources
required
Optimal Response System
• Considering the following factors for each
service, we will develop a description of
what we feel is the optimal mix of
response services:
– Response Gap - % time the service can be
employed
– Cost
– Effective Risk Reduction
Optimal Response System
• We will also describe the best form of
organization to manage the service
• The combined costs of the organization
will be no more than the amount
determined in the regulatory analysis.
Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA)
• BCA is a process for comparing the
benefits and costs of a proposed action
or project over a specified period of time
to determine if it is feasible on its own
and/or to determine its feasibility
relative to other alternatives.
Benefit Cost Analysis (BCA)
• Numerous federal agencies have
defined how information in evaluated
under BCA.
– We propose to follow the Office of
Management and Budget and
Environmental Protection Agency
guidelines for our BCA.
Benefit Cost Analysis
• We will conduct BCA on the
recommended or optimized package of
tactics developed by the team.
• Following the initial BCA, we can look at
inputs to determine the relative benefits
of individual tactics.
• This feedback will help to optimize the
tactics employed and increase the
benefit/cost ratio or net benefit.
Cost Effectiveness Analysis (CEA)
• CEA is another form of economic analysis
that can be applied when benefits are
difficult to quantify.
• CEA can provide the cost per unit of
benefit for different alternatives as a way
to determine the most efficient alternative.
• CEA could be employed to evaluate the
cost per barrel of oil not spilled, for
example, for each alternative or group of
alternatives.
Sensitivity Analysis
• Sensitivity analysis evaluates the
change in outcomes resulting from
changes in input values or assumptions.
It can be used to evaluate the effect of
uncertainty for both benefits and costs.
Sensitivity Analysis
• Sensitivity analysis can be applied to both
BCA and CEA, and can include the analysis
of factors such as:
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Vessel traffic growth rates
Accidents rate
Spill frequency and size
Price of crude oil
Capital cost of rescue tugs and other
infrastructure
– Discount rate
– Other factors identified by the team
Sensitivity Analysis
• Some additional ways we could apply
sensitivity analysis would include:
– Evaluating the degree of compliance,
measured as the percentage of time vessels
would participate in the program versus spend
the extra time and fuel costs to avoid the area.
– Evaluating the effect of uncertainty in variables
considered in the response gap analysis.
• We will conduct our sensitivity analysis
using @RISK, a software add-in for
Microsoft Excel.
Task Schedule
2012
Regulatory Analysis
X
Response Gap Data
X
2013
Towing Analysis
X X X
Salvage Analysis
X X X
Spill Response Analysis
X X X
Management System Analysis
X X X
Optimal Response System
Benefit Cost Analysis
Draft Report
Final Report
2014
X
X X X
X X
X