Markus Amann
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)
2.5
After 1990 Asian emissions have grown rapidly
2 due to fast economic development
40
25
2.5
20
2
15
1.5
35
1.5
15
0.5
12
20
10
Million tons
1
Million tons
25
Euro
30
10
1
5
0.5
10
5
0
1990
0
1990
1995
SO2
2000
0
1990
2005
1995
1995
2000
2005
NOx
China
0
1990
2000
India
1995
2000
GDP
2005
2005
Per-capita NOx emissions
1940-2030
100
1970
North America
kg NOx/capita
75
2000
1940
50
Europe
1960
25
2030
2000
2030
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
25000
30000
35000
Per-capita NOx emissions
1940-2030
100
1970
North America
kg NOx/capita
75
2000
1940
50
Russia
Europe
1960
25
2030
2000
2000
Africa
2030
East Asia
South Asia
0
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
Per-capita income ($/capita), PPP
25000
30000
35000
Air pollution causes severe health impacts
India, 2000 (Source: GAINS-India)
Loss in statistical life expectancy
from exposure to outdoor PM2.5
Disability
adjusted life
Disability
years
lost
adjusted
life
(DALYs),
million/yr
years
lost
(DALYs),
million/yr
DALYs from air pollution
40
35
40
30
35
25
30
20
25
15
20
10
15
5
10
0
5
0
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Indoor
pollution
use
Outdoor
pollutionfrom
fromsolid
solidfuel
fuel
useininhouseholds
households
Outdoor pollution from solid
use in households
other fuel
sources
Outdoor pollution from other sources
The economic projection of the Indian government
provided by TERI
1200%
1000%
relative to 2000
800%
CO2
600%
400%
200%
2000 = 100%
0%
1990
1995
2000
GDP (PPP)
2005
2010
Population
2015
GDP/cap (PPP)
2020
CO2
2025
2030
Air pollution will grow too
despite the current Indian pollution control legislation
1200%
Emissions relative to 2000
1000%
800%
SO2
600%
400%
NOx
200%
PM2.5
2000 = 100%
0%
1990
1995
2000
2005
GDP (PPP)
2010
SO2
NOx
2015
2020
PM2.5
YOLLs
2025
2030
Health impacts from PM2.5 in 2030
for governmental energy projection + current AQ legislation
Loss in statistical life expectancy
from exposure to outdoor PM2.5
DALYs from air pollution
Disability
adjusted life
years lost
(DALYs),
million/yr
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000
2030 baseline
2030 replacement by
LPG
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from other sources
CO2 emissions
Baseline projections with current measures, 2000 and 2030
7000
Total CO2 emissions
10
CO2/capita
GDP/capita
35
30
6000
8
25
4000
3000
1000 Euro/year
tons/person/year
Million tons CO2
5000
6
4
20
15
10
2000
2
5
1000
0
0
2000
2030
India
EU
0
2000
2030
India
EU
2000
2030
India
EU
Combined AQ and CC measures:
1) Phase-out of solid fuels in domestic sector
Disability
adjusted life
years lost
(DALYs),
million/yr
Gt CO2
120
3.5
100
3
2.5
80
2
60
1.5
40
1
20
0.5
0
2000
2030 baseline
2030 replacement by
LPG
0
2000
2030 baseline
2030 replacement by
LPG
Indoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Outdoor pollution from solid fuel use in households
Domestic sector
Other fuels
Outdoor pollution from other sources
DALYs from air pollution
CO2 emissions
Combined AQ and CC measures:
2) End-of-pipe measures
Emissions from electricity generation in Andra Pradesh
800%
800%
Emissions
Emissions
Emissionsrelative
relative
relativeto
to
toyear
year
year2000
2000
2000
700%
700%
600%
600%
500%
500%
400%
400%
300%
300%
200%
200%
100%
100%
Level in 2000
0%
0%
PM10
PM10
SO2
SO2
Coal
Coal with
with current
current air
air pollution
pollution (AP)
(AP) standards
standards
With
IGCC
for
new
plants
after
2015
With IGCC for new plants after 2015
NOx
NOx
CO2
CO2
Coal
Coal +
+ advanced
advanced air
air pollution
pollution control
control
IGCC
+
carbon
capture
IGCC + carbon capture
Costs of electricity generation
Andra Pradesh, 2030 (Source: GAINS-India)
15
13
Billion $/year
10
8
5
3
0
Conv. coal with current AP
standards
IGCC
Coal + advanced air pollution
control
Coal costs
PM control
SO2 control
With IGCC for new plants after
2015
NOx control
Combined AQ and CC measures:
3) Sustainable energy systems
Loss in statistical life expectancy from PM2.5 in 2020
(with current legislation on air pollution controls)
Governmental energy baseline
Alternative sustainability energy path
Differences:
1 million ton less CO2 emissions/year in 2020
7 billion $/yr less control costs for air pollution
8 months life expectancy or 10 million life years gained per year
Emission trends in China
1990-2005-2030
400%
350%
Relative to 1990
300%
250%
200%
150%
100%
50%
0%
1990
1995
2000
2005
SO2
2010
NOx
2015
PM
CO2
2020
2025
2030
Costs of CO2 reductions for China in 2020
100%
1.4%
95%
1.2%
90%
1.0%
85%
0.8%
80%
0.6%
75%
0.4%
70%
0.2%
65%
0.0%
60%
80%
85%
90%
-0.2%
100%
95%
CO2 emissions relative to baseline
SO2
NOx
PM
PM exposure index
Costs
CO2 mitigation costs [% of GDP (MER)]
SO2, NOx, PM emissions, PM exposure
index relative to baseline
and associated changes in air pollutants emissions
Conclusions
• In addition to “conventional” air pollution problems from
industrial sources, AQ impacts from poverty add an
additional burden in developing countries.
• Interactions between air pollution and GHG mitigation are
equally relevant for developing countries. Well-selected
measures to improve local air quality in the near term can
deliver co-benefits on GHG emissions.
GAINS-Asia is freely accessible at the Internet
www.iiasa.ac.at/web-apps/apd/gains/AS/index.login