Key issues framing the SEA scope
Related to electricity demand and
power trade development
in the LMB and GMS
Briefing to TNMC
Based on the Presentations Made to NMCS/Line Agencies
And separate CSO/NGO Consultation Meetings
In Viet Nam, Lao PDR and Cambodia
1
Purpose of this Presentation
Illustrate /explore:
1.
2.
3.
Trends in electricity demand-supply in the LMB/GMS
Linkages to the GMS sustainable energy futures – and
regional context of cross-border power
Proposed mainstream dams in relation to the above
trends (multiple seller- multiple buyer)
Focused on the opportunities side
of the Development “Opportunities-Risk” Equation
2
LMB Selected indicators 2004
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Thailand
Viet Nam
Population
(million) (2004)
13.8
5.8
64.2
82.1
GDP (current
USD billion)
4.9
2.2
150.1
41.2
GDP per capita
(current USD)
361
420
2,519
551
FDI (USD million)
131
17
1,064
1,610
FDI/capita (USD)
9.5
2.9
16.6
19.6
Electricity use
per capita (kWh)
45
160
1,752 (2003)
433 (2003)
Energy use per
capita (kgoe)
180.0
355.0
1,405.7 (2003)
544.3 (2003)
Fuelwood share
in total primary
energy
88%
67%
16%
49%
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
3
Regional GMS energy issues
Energy poverty
widespread
• Dependence on traditional sources of energy (e.g. fuelwood)
• 20 % of GMs population (74 mil.) no access to electricity
• Energy consumption in GMS is only 2/3 of the world average
for developing countries
Energy
vulnerability
high and rising
• 1993-2005 8% annual growth in energy consumption
• 21% of total energy consumed in the region imported
• Volatile energy prices and limited alternative energy sources
mean the region is vulnerable
Energy
productivity
and policy
• Energy supplies low and unpredictable – overall quality low
• Lack of competitive pressure on energy suppliers
• Policy regimes inadequate to address emerging challenges
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2009
4
Electricity consumption in LMB / GMS
relative to other countries + Human Development Index
Per Capital Electricity Use
UN Human Development index + Per
Capital Electricity Use (2005)
Kwh/yr/pc
Thailand
Yunnan
Viet Nam
Lao PDR
Myanmar
Cambodia
Normalized
1,950
34.8
1,252
22.4
573
10.2
yr /pc
1874,000 kwh / 3.3
78 As turning point
1.4
56 In HDI
1.0
Per capita electricity use
Source: Building Sustainable energy futures in the GMS, ADB, 2009
5
Significant differences in urbanization and
household electricity consumption in LMB
Country
Urbanization
Ratio
Per capita household
consumption (KWh)
Share of residential sector
in total electricity
consumption (%)
Cambodia
17%
29
52.0
Lao PDR
21%
95
53.0
Thailand
33%
409
21.0
Vietnam
27%
242
42.0
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009
6
Overall trend in GDP growth + electricity
consumption in GMS correlated
Example:
Thailand
growth of net
electricity
consumption
and GDP 19822006
Growth + Electricity
No trend decoupling
of overall energy
consumption seen
yet - as in OECD
economies
7
High economic growth in the LMB
1985-2005
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB 2008
8
What about the current economic crisis?
Current downturn in rate of economic growth in the GMS
Source: World Bank 2009
e – expected
f - forecast
9
Trend with last Asia economic downturn
Thailand growth rates:
electricity consumption, total energy and GDP - 1982-2006
25
20
Percent
15
10
5
0
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
-5
-10
-15
Net electricity consumption growth
Source: EIA 2009, UNSD 2009
Real GDP growth
total energy consumption
10
Changing economic environment?
Power sector projections based on the assumption of
continuing rapid economic growth in the region
(between 6.3 and 7.6 % to 2025 for the GMS region)
Can these levels of growth continue to be expected
with the global economic downturn?
What does this mean for likely future energy demand in
the region – especially where growth has been
dependant upon exports?
What does this mean for investment in the energy
sector? And more specifically investment in
hydropower?
11
Projected growth in grid power demand
in LMB Countries 2005-2025
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008 (base case projection)
12
What this means from a Regional Power Planner Perspective
Grid Based Generation Expansion
Future Capacity Additions
Energy
Demand
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Natural Gas?
Coal?
Oil?
Hydro from tributaries or LMB mainstream?
Nuclear?
Co-generation, etc
Grid-scale biomass
Grid-scale Wind, Solar
Other Grid-scale renewable?
Other:
• Power Import
• Replacement Plant
• Fuel-Switching
Projected energy demand
Projected energy demand with
demand management
Existing
Capacity
•
•
•
•
•
•
Supply
Natural gas
Coal
Oil
hydropower
biomass
Etc.
Today
*RoW = Rest of World
time
Need for new generation delayed through demand-side
management & supply-side efficiency measures 13
GMS energy resources – for grid-scale
electricity generation (ADB)
Hydro (MWyr/yr) - ADB
Other renewable sources
- Different grades
Cambodia
Lao PDR
Thailand
Viet Nam
Regional
total
(GMS)
Low –cost
1,670
4,640
2,784
3,248
54,102
Mediumcost
1,114
3,944
1,856
3,712
43,802
High-cost
742
2,320
928
1,392
23,571
Small
650
1,015
406
812
5,928
Total
4,176
11,919
5,974
9,164
127,403
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
14
Electricity Generation Scenarios – Fuel Type
One Interpretation – GMS Energy Futures ADB
• From ADB
Four GMS Scenarios
– new generation capacity to 2025
Between 217,000 – 238,000 MW
Hydropower Between 62,000 – 93,000 MW
15
Trends in GMS cross-border power trade?
Under Integrated GMS Scenario
Why?
Cross-border trade is the key motivating factor for 11+ proposed
LMB hydropower schemes (buyer + seller perspectives)
Policy + Legal Framework
• Inter-government Agreement on Regional Power Trade (2002)
• GMS Power Trade Road Map - as reference
• Existing Bilateral Power Trade MOUs, subject to PPAs
– E.g. Thailand’s MOU’s with
• Lao PDR (5,000 MW)
• Cambodia
• Others, including China
16
Trend in cross-border Power Trade
Exports
Cambodia
Lao PDR
-
74
74
Lao PDR
-
2,628
Thailand
2,033
Viet Nam
521
Imports
Cambodia
Thailand
Viet Nam
RoW
-
Trade flow (GWh)
Total
3,234
in 2005
5,267
-
521
RoW
-
Total
2,628
2025
3,234
-
Exports
Cambodia
Lao PDR
-
40
15
Lao PDR
22
-
50
Thailand
9,482
42,458
Viet Nam
3,612
25,988
Imports
Cambodia
RoW
Total
13,116
Thailand
Viet Nam
RoW
Total
55
57
129
147,269*
199,209
-
5,918
35,518
644
584
-
1,228
69,130
649
153,244
-
Source: Economics of energy integration , ADB, 2008
-
17
Projected electricity trade within 2005-2025
One Trend Scenario – GMS (ADB)
Under Integrated GMS Scenario
2005
2025
?
Source: Building a sustainable energy future the GMS, ADB, 2009
18
11+ Proposed LMB Mainstream dams in the
Context of Cross-Border Trade
All LMB schemes together
represent near:
• 12-14,000 MW and up to
65,000 GWh av. annual
• 11.5% of installed
capacity in LMB by 2020
• 9.3% of power produced
in the LMB by 2020
• 5% of new generation
capacity in GMS by 2025
(ADB Base case)
• Abut 10 Nam Theun 2’s
19
Potential Markets for Mainstream Dams
Installed Capacities (MW)
subject to change
Myanmar
-
PRC
No mainstream projects
proposed
8 in operation, under construction and
planned, total 13,800 MW
Viet Nam
1,410 MW
1,230 MW
1,260 MW
Luang Prabang
Sambor
Stung Treng
1,320 MW
1,200 MW
Thailand
Pak Beng
Xayabori
Pak Lay
Sanakham
Ban Khoum
Lat Sua
Don Sahong
1,230 MW
1,260 MW
1,300 MW
1,200 MW
1,827 MW
800 MW
360 MW
1,872 MW
800 MW
1,410 MW
2,600 MW
800 MW
Lao & Cambodia
360 MW
980 MW
2,600 MW
-
A proportion of
generation for domestic
power expansion
Units from schemes,
subject to agreements
20
Summing Up
Framing Issues Regional Energy Demand / Power Trade
5 general themes in discussions to date
(in Cambodia, Lao & Viet Nam)
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
National policy framework - what policies are relevant to
place decisions on LMB mainstream dams in a basin-wide
sustainable context?
Demand - Is the power needed? Is the picture changed
with the economic downturn?
Supply - Other options to meet electricity needs?
theoretical and practical ? What lead time is needed?
Priorities – to meet urban or rural needs?
Transboundary dimensions - What are the opportunities
and constrains? Sharing benefits? Mechanisms?
21
Change for SEA: Measure and Manage Expectation
e.g. NGO / CSOs and others advocate expanding consideration of options
Structural /
Infrastructure options
Conventional Thermal? gas, coal, oil
End-Use Efficiency?
Distribution Loss Reduction?
Bulk metering?
Power Factor correction?
Electricity Imports? Hydro Tributaries?
Hydro Mainstream?
Grid-scale Renewable? E.g. wind, biomas, solar
Other non Conventional?
Nuclear?
Decentralized Systems?
Structural Change in Demand?
Demand-Side
Management
Options
Power
Sector
Supply-Side
Options
Supply-side efficiency?
Improved facility operations?
Tariff measures?
Preferential Energy Rates?
Subsidy on power saving?
Carbon Tax?
Improved cost recovery?
Policies to attract investors?
Public and private sector roles?
Non-Structural
Options
22
How will the SEA address divergent views?
On the power and energy theme
• SEA now at Preparation Stage – consultation oriented.
• Focus on the 11+ mainstream dams
• Systematically bring existing information in a timely way to feed
immediate needs (e.g. MRC Procedures) + longer term planning
Inception Report and Baseline Assessment - to follow
• Trend analysis - how mainstream dams impact on development trends
• Scenario analysis - ‘With and without’ mainstream dams scenario’s
feeding new information to MRC Hydropower Database > BDP Scenario.
• Opportunities and Risks – analysis of development opportunities and
risks, mitigation and enhancement using the SEA Framework
23
Thank you
24