Trend analysis for HMs and POPs
Applications
I. Ilyin, EMEP / MSC-East
List of trend parameters
Parameters for trend characterization:
 Relative reduction over the whole period (Rtot),
 Relative annual reductions of contamination:
 average over the period (Rav),
 maximum (Rmax),
 minimum (Rmin).
 Relative contribution of seasonal variability (Fseas).
 Relative contribution of random component (Frand).
 Phase shift of maximum values of contamination with respect to
the beginning of the year (φ).
Statistical tests:
 Non-linearity parameter (NL)
 Relative contribution of seasonal variability (Fseas)
10%
10%
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of HM and
POP levels for the report
 Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the
EMEP stations
• Seasonality
• Random component
• Shift relative to beginning of year
 Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries
• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates
• Overall reduction
 Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and
secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission
sources.)
 Changes of transboundary transport
 Pollution levels caused by emission source categories
 Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)
 Large Point Sources (LPS)
 Deposition to ecosystems
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of HM and
POP levels for the report
 Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at
the EMEP stations
• Seasonality
• Random component
• Shift relative to beginning of year
 Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries
• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates
• Overall reduction
 Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and
secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission
sources. )
 Changes of transboundary transport
 Pollution levels caused by emission source categories
 Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)
 Large Point Sources (LPS)
 Deposition to ecosystems
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Application of the analysis of trends to individual
stations
Selection of stations: data available from 1990-1992 to 2008-2010 (Pb, Cd)
from 1996 to 2008-2010 (Hg, B[a]P)
Pb, Cd: 15 stations
Hg:
6 stations
B[a]P:
6 stations
Pb, Cd
Hg and B[a]P
- in air
- wet deposition
- collocated
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Analysis of modelled and observed levels at
monitoring stations
Non-linearity of observed and modelled trends at monitoring stations
Air concentrations, ng/m
3
40
Observed
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Observed air concentrations of Pb for station DE1 (Germany)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Non-linearity of observed and modelled
trends at monitoring stations
Air
Air concentrations,
concentrations, ng/m
ng/m
33
40
Observed
Observed
35
Observed (main component)
30
25
NL = 45%
20
15
10
5
2010
2010
2009
2009
2008
2008
2007
2007
2006
2006
2005
2005
2004
2004
2003
2003
2002
2002
2001
2001
2000
2000
1999
1999
1998
1998
1997
1997
1996
1996
1995
1995
1994
1994
1993
1993
1992
1992
1991
1991
1990
1990
0
Observed air concentrations of Pb their trend for station DE1 (Germany)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Non-linearity of observed and modelled
trends at monitoring stations
Air concentrations, ng/m
3
40
35
Modelled
30
Modelled (main component)
25
NL = 43%
20
15
10
5
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Modelled air concentrations of Pb their trend for station DE1 (Germany)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Non-linearity of observed and modelled
trends at monitoring stations
90
Non-linearirty, %
80
Max among stations
70
60
Average among stations
50
40
Min among stations
30
20
10
0
Pb
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Non-linearity: summary for HMs and POPs
Threshold value: 10%
Air concentrations
90
Observed
10%
Non-linearity, %
Non-linearity, %
90
Wet deposition
60
30
0
Observed
10%
60
30
0
Pb
Cd
Hg
B[a]P
Pb
Cd
Hg
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Non-linearity: summary for HMs and POPs
Threshold value: 10%
Air concentrations
Non-linear trend at all stations
Non-linearity, %
60
30
0
90
Non-linearity, %
Observed
Observed
Modelled
10%
10%
90
Wet deposition
Observed
10%
Modelled
10%
60
30
0
Pb
Cd
Hg
B[a]P
Pb
Cd
Hg
Linear trend at all stations
As a rule, trends of observed and modelled levels at stations are non-linear
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring
stations: seasonality
Air concentrations, ng/m
3
40
Observed
Observed (trend)
Observed (main component)
35
30
25
Cseas = 50%
20
15
10
5
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Observed air concentrations and their trend, including seasonality
for station DE1 (Germany)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs
Air concentrations
Wet deposition
150
120
Seasonality, %
Observed
10%
90
2.5
90
60
30
0
1.0
Cd
Hg
B[a]P
Pb
Cd
Hg
Observed
Observed (trend)
Observed (annual component)
0.5
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
0.0
1997
Pb
120
1.5
1997
0
Observed
10%
2.0
1996
30
FI36, Hg in air
3
60
Air concentrations, ng/m
Seasonality, %
150
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs
Air concentrations
Wet deposition
150
90
1.5Cd
Hg
Pb
B[a]P
Cd
Hg
1.0
0.5
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2003
2002
2001
2000
0.0
1999
Pb
Observed
Observed (trend)
Observed (main component)
0
2.0
1998
0
30
2.5
1997
30
60
CZ3, B[a]P in air
3.0
1996
3
3.5
90
2005
60
Observed
10%
120
2004
120
Seasonality, %
Observed
10%
Concentration in air, ng/m
Seasonality, %
150
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Seasonality: summary for HMs and POPs
Air concentrations
Wet deposition
150
90
900
600
500
0
400
Cd
300
Hg
B[a]P
Pb
Cd
Hg
200
100
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
0
1991
Pb
Observed
Observed (trend)
Observed (annual component)
30
700
1990
0
60
FI36, Hg wet dep.
800
2
30
90
1998
60
Observed
Observed
Modelled
10%
10%
120
1997
120
Seasonality, %
Observed
Observed
Modelled
10%
10%
Wet deposition, ng/m /month
Seasonality, %
150
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring
stations: random component
Air concentrations, ng/m
3
40
Observed
Observed (trend)
Observed (main component)
35
30
Crand = 66%
25
20
15
10
5
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Observed air concentrations and their trend, including seasonality
for station DE1 (Germany)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Random component:
summary for HMs and POPs
150
Random component, %
Random component, %
150
120
90
60
30
Observed
Observed
Modelled
0
120
90
60
30
Observed
Observed
Modelled
0
Pb
Cd
Hg
B[a]P
Pb
Cd
Hg
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Analysis of long-term trends at monitoring
stations: phase shift
2
Wet deposition, g/km /month
140
60
120
100
Observed
Observed (trend)
50
80
40
Δφ = ~6 months
60
30
40
20
20
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
10
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
0
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Observed wet deposition and their trend, including seasonality for
station NO39 (Norway)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
7
6
Jul
Pb, in air
Observed
Observed
Modelled
5
Jun
May
4
Apr
3
Mar
2
Feb
1
Jan
SK4
NL9
GB91
DK31
DK3
DE9
DE8
DE7
DE3
DE1
CZ3
0
CZ1
Number of month with maximum
Phase shifts: summary for all stations
(Pb, air concentrations)
Month of maximum air concentrations of Pb trend in 1990-2010
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Modelled and observed levels at monitoring stations
Trends of modelled and observed
concentrations of Pb at DE3 (Germany)
Air concentrations, ng/m
3
45
40
Observed (trend)
35
Modelled (trend)
30
Δφmodel ~ 1 month
25
20
15
Δφmodel = 6 months
10
5
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Possible explanation of difference in modelled and observed phase shifts (to be
examined)
 DE3 is located at height 1200 m (but in the model at 550 m)
 This station may characterize conditions mostly in free troposphere
rather then in boundary layer
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Concluding remarks
 As a rule, trends of observed and modelled levels at stations are
non-linear. Exception is concentrations of Hg in air
 Trends of observed and modelled levels at stations exhibit substantial
seasonal variability (except of Hg in air). The most pronounced
seasonality is noted for B[a]P
 Random component characterizes non-regular short-term seasonal
meteorological variability
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of
HM and POP levels for the report
 Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the
EMEP stations
• Seasonality
• Random component
• Shift relative to beginning of year
 Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries
• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates
• Overall reduction
 Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and
secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission
sources. )
 Changes of transboundary transport
 Pollution levels caused by emission source categories
 Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)
 Large Point Sources (LPS)
 Deposition to ecosystems
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of
HM and POP levels for the report
 Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the
EMEP stations
• Seasonality
• Random component
• Shift relative to beginning of year
 Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries
• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates
• Overall reduction
 Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and
secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission
sources. )
 Changes of transboundary transport
 Pollution levels caused by emission source categories
 Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)
 Large Point Sources (LPS)
 Deposition to ecosystems
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Information on long-term changes of
HM and POP levels for the report
 Information on long-term changes of modelled and observed levels at the
EMEP stations
• Seasonality
• Random component
• Shift relative to beginning of year
 Changes of pollution levels in the EMEP countries
• Average, minimum and maximum reduction rates
• Overall reduction
 Analysis of factors affecting long-term changes (anthropogenic and
secondary emissions, meteorological variability, non-EMEP emission
sources. )
 Changes of transboundary transport
 Pollution levels caused by emission source categories
 Trends in different media (soil, seas, vegetation)
 Large Point Sources (LPS)
 Deposition to ecosystems
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Hg, Europe
0.1
Deposition
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.2
2
Deposition, g/km /month
0.3
3
Deposition
Concentration in air, ng/m
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2
Deposition, kg/km /month
Pb, Europe
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.4
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2
Deposition, g/km /month
Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region
0.4
10
0.0
1.6
Cd, Europe
8
B[a]P, Europe
Deposition
6
4
2
0
0.4
Concentration
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Hg, Europe
0.1
Deposition
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.2
2
Deposition, g/km /month
0.3
3
Deposition
Concentration in air, ng/m
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2
Deposition, kg/km /month
Pb, Europe
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
1.4
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2
Deposition, g/km /month
Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region
0.4
10
0.0
1.6
Cd, Europe
8
B[a]P, Europe
Deposition
6
4
2
0
0.4
Concentration
0.3
0.2
0.1
0.0
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
1.4
1.2
0.2
Hg, Europe
Deposition
Main component
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.0
Reduction = 2.2 (1.1 – 3.1)% per year
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.1
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.2
Deposition, g/km /month
2
0.3
Deposition
Main component
3
2
Deposition, kg/km /month
Pb, Europe
Concentration in air, ng/m
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
0.0
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2
Deposition, g/km /month
Analysis of pollution trends in the EMEP region
0.4
10
Reduction = 6 (5 – 7)% per year
1.6
Cd, Europe
8
0
B[a]P, Europe
0.3
0.0
Deposition
Main component
6
4
2
Reduction = 3.4% per year
0.4
Concentration
Main component
0.2
0.1
Reduction = 1.2 (-3.2 – 3.9)% per year
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Mean reduction rate, % per year
25
0
-5
Switzerland
Slovenia
Luxembourg
United_Kingdom
France
Spain
Belgium
Austria
Lithuania
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
Sweden
Finland
Monaco
Portugal
Ukraine
Denmark
Latvia
Norway
Montenegro
Rep._Moldova
Hungary
Ireland
Estonia
Belarus
Croatia
Czech_Rep.
Slovakia
Poland
Bosnia_Herzegovina
Romania
Russia
Serbia
Greece
Macedonia
Bulgaria
Albania
Cyprus
Malta
Iceland
Turkey
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Trends in the EMEP region
Mean reduction rate of pollution levels in the
EMEP countries for 1990-2010
Rates of total deposition reduction of lead in the EMEP countries
30
Pb
Maximum (beginning of the period)
20
Average rate for period 1990-2010
15
Minimum (end of the period)
10
5
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Mean reduction rate, % per year
20
10
5
0
-5
Pb
Deposition, kg/km /month
15
2
25
Switzerland
Slovenia
Luxembourg
United_Kingdom
France
Spain
Belgium
Austria
Lithuania
Netherlands
Italy
Germany
Sweden
Finland
Monaco
1990
Portugal
1991
Ukraine
1992
Denmark
1993
Latvia
1994
Norway
Montenegro
1995
Rep._Moldova
1996
Hungary
1997
Ireland
1998
Estonia
1999
Belarus
Croatia
2000
Czech_Rep.
2001
Slovakia
2002
Poland
2003
Bosnia_Herzegovina
Romania
2004
Russia
2005
Serbia
2006
Greece
2007
Macedonia
2008
Bulgaria
Albania
2009
Cyprus
2010
Malta
Iceland
Turkey
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Armenia
Trends in the EMEP region
Rates of total deposition reduction of lead
in the EMEP countries
30
0.45
0.40
0.35
Pb, Spain
Data
Main component
0.30
0.25
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
20
15
10
5
0
-5
kg/km /month
25
0.4
0.2
Switzerland
Slovenia
Luxembourg
United_Kingdom
France
Deposition,
Spain
Belgium
Austria
Lithuania
1990
Netherlands
1991
Italy
1992 Germany
1993 Sweden
1994 Finland
Monaco
1995 Portugal
1996 Ukraine
1997 Denmark
Latvia
1998
Norway
1999Montenegro
2000
Rep._Moldova
2001 Hungary
Ireland
2002
Estonia
2003 Belarus
2004 Croatia
2005Czech_Rep.
2006 Slovakia
Poland
2007
Bosnia_Herzegovina
2008 Romania
Russia
2009
Serbia
2010
Greece
Macedonia
Bulgaria
Albania
Cyprus
Malta
Iceland
Turkey
Georgia
Azerbaijan
Armenia
2
Mean reduction rate, % per year
Trends in the EMEP region
Rates of total deposition reduction of lead
in the EMEP countries
30
Pb
1.2
1.0
Pb, Switzerland
Data
Main component
0.8
0.6
0.0
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
-5%
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
SE2 / SE14
2004
3
in air, ng/m
0.5
2003
2002
2001
2000
0.2
GB
DE
AM
IE
NL
LU
CZ
BE
FR
AL
AT
HU
NO
HR
IS
MD
ES
PL
CY
SK
CH
BA
TR
SI
TMConcentrations
RS
KZ
RU
MK
DK
SE
LT
BY
GR
RO
UA
BG
GE
AZ
UZ
LV
PT
FI
IT
EE
MT
MC
ME
0%
1999
0.00
5%
1998
0.05
15%
1997
0.10
10%
Data
Main component
1996
0.15
20%
B[a]P
1995
0.20
reduction rate, % per year
B[a]P, Sweden
1994
3
0.25
1990
Mean
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Concentration in air, ng/m
Trends in the EMEP region
Rates of total deposition reduction of
B[a]P in the EMEP countries
25%
Observed
Trend (main component)
0.4
0.3
0.1
0.0
-10%
-15%
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
B[a]P
15%
10%
5%
0%
-5%
Concentration in air, ng/m
20%
GB
DE
AM
IE
NL
LU
CZ
1990BE
1991FR
AL
1992AT
1993HU
1994NO
HR
1995 IS
1996MD
1997ES
PL
1998CY
1999SK
2000CH
BA
2001TR
2002 SI
2003TM
RS
2004KZ
2005RU
2006MK
DK
2007SE
2008 LT
2009BY
GR
2010RO
UA
BG
GE
AZ
UZ
LV
PT
FI
IT
EE
MT
MC
ME
3
Mean reduction rate, % per year
Trends in the EMEP region
Rates of total deposition reduction of
B[a]P in the EMEP countries
25%
1.2
1.0
B[a]P, Estonia
Data
Main component
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-10%
-15%
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Average reduction rate and overall reduction in
the EMEP countries for 1990-2010
Mean annual reduction rates
in countries
Maximum among countries
95 percentile
75 percentile
Average among countries
25 percentile
5 percentile
Minimum among countries
Mean among countries
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Average reduction rate and overall reduction in
the EMEP countries for 1990-2010
Mean annual reduction rates
in countries
Overall reduction in
countries for 1990-2010
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Main factors affecting trends:
 Anthropogenic emissions
 Meteorological variability
 Secondary emission sources
 Transboundary transport
 Changes in atmospheric composition
 Non-EMEP sources (boundary conditions)
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
1.2
Pb, Europe
0.8
0.6
0.4
Emission
0.2
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0.0
1990
Dimensionless emission .
1.0
Dimensionless emission of Pb in Europe
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Pb, Europe
Compared to the emission trend:
1.0
0.8
 Deposition reduction is smaller
0.6
 Deposition trend is less
smooth
0.4
Deposition
Emission
0.2
Main factors affecting deposition
trends:
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
0.0
1990
Dimensionless deposition and emission .
1.2
 Anthropogenic emissions
Dimensionless emission and deposition
of Pb in Europe
 Meteorological variability
 Secondary emission sources
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Model calculations for 1990-2010 to determine influence of factors
affecting trends
Anthrop.
emission
Meteo
Secondary
sources
Effect of anthrop. emission
Varies
Fixed
Fixed
Effect of meteorology
Fixed
Varies
Fixed
Effect of secondary emission
Fixed
Fixed
Varies
“Fixed” – relates to 1990
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
0.2
 Overall reduction of Pb
deposition ~74%
Pb deposition in Europe
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-0.1
1991
0.0
1990
Deposition flux, dimensionless .
0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
Deposition
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
0.2
 Overall reduction of Pb
deposition ~74%
Pb deposition in Europe
-0.2
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-0.1
1991
0.0
1990
Deposition flux, dimensionless .
0.1
 Major factor of Pb long-term
changes is anthropogenic
emission
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
Deposition
Effect of anthrop. emisison
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
0.2
 Overall reduction of Pb
deposition ~74%
Pb deposition in Europe
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
Deposition
-0.7
Effect of meteorol. variability
-0.8
Effect of anthrop. emisison
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-0.1
1991
0.0
1990
Deposition flux, dimensionless .
0.1
 Major factor of Pb long-term
changes is anthropogenic
emission
 Meteorological variability
responsible for ±10% of
deposition in Europe as a whole
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Factors affecting long-term trends
Relative deposition changes caused by different factors
0.2
 Overall reduction of Pb
deposition ~74%
Pb deposition in Europe
-0.2
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
-0.1
1991
0.0
1990
Deposition flux, dimensionless .
0.1
 Major factor of Pb long-term
changes is anthropogenic
emission
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.6
-0.7
-0.8
Deposition
Effect of meteorol. variability
Effect of anthrop. emisison
Effect of secondary emissions
 Meteorological variability
responsible for ±10% of
deposition in Europe as a whole
 Effect of secondary sources is
explained by long-term decline
of concentrations in soils
In countries of Europe the effect of these factors may be different
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
-20
Slovenia
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Estonia
France
Belarus
United_Kingdom
Finland
Belgium
Croatia
Austria
Latvia
Ukraine
Republic_of_Moldo
Lithuania
Germany
Monaco
Hungary
Italy
Montenegro
Bosnia_Herzegovina
Ireland
Netherlands
Sweden
Denmark
Spain
Uzbekistan
Czech_Republic
Romania
Kyrgyzstan
Albania
Slovakia
Tajikistan
Russia
Norway
Kazakhstan
FYR_Macedonia
Poland
Serbia
Portugal
Bulgaria
Turkmenistan
Greece
Malta
Armenia
Georgia
Turkey
Iceland
Azerbaijan
Cyprus
Pb deposition change, % .
Effect of transboundary transport on
long-term changes of pollution levels
100
80
60
40
20
0
Reduction of Pb deposition 1990 and 2010 in the EMEP region
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
National
3.0
20
0.0
Reduction of Pb deposition
caused by changes of national, foreign
and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and
0
2010 in countries of the EMEP region
2010
3.5
2005
-20
2000
40
20
1995
60
0
2.0
1.0
0.5
Slovenia
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Estonia
France
Belarus
United_Kingdom
Finland
Belgium
Croatia
Austria
Latvia
Ukraine
2
Republic_of_Moldo
Deposition,
kg/km /y
Lithuania
Germany
Monaco
Hungary
Italy
Montenegro
Bosnia_Herzegovina
Ireland
Netherlands
Sweden
Denmark
Spain
Uzbekistan
Czech_Republic
Romania
Kyrgyzstan
Albania
Slovakia
Tajikistan
Russia
Norway
Kazakhstan
FYR_Macedonia
Poland
Serbia
Portugal
Bulgaria
Turkmenistan
Greece
Malta
Armenia
Georgia
Turkey
Iceland
Azerbaijan
Cyprus
80
U.K.
1990
100
Pb deposition change, % .
Factors affecting long-term trends
Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of
pollution levels
100
80
Foreign
Non-EMEP and Secondary
60
40
Deposition of Pb
4.0
N-E & S
Foreign
National
2.5
1.5
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
100
Pb deposition change, % .
80
60
40
20
0
20
0
-20
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
Reduction of Pb deposition caused by changes of national, foreign
and sum of secondary and non-EMEP sources between 1990 and
2010 in countries of the EMEP region
Slovenia
Switzerland
Luxembourg
Estonia
France
Belarus
United_Kingdom
Finland
Belgium
Croatia
Austria
Latvia
Ukraine
Republic_of_Moldo
Lithuania kg/km2/y
Deposition,
Germany
Monaco
Hungary
Italy
Montenegro
1990
Bosnia_Herzegovina
Ireland
Netherlands
1995
Sweden
Denmark
Spain
Uzbekistan
2000
Czech_Republic
Romania
Kyrgyzstan
2005
Albania
Slovakia
Tajikistan
Russia
2010
Norway
Kazakhstan
FYR_Macedonia
Poland
Serbia
Portugal
Bulgaria
Turkmenistan
Greece
Malta
Armenia
Georgia
Turkey
Iceland
Azerbaijan
Cyprus
Factors affecting long-term trends
Effect of transboundary transport on long-term changes of
pollution levels
100
80
National
40
Latvia
3.0
2.5
Foreign
Non-EMEP and Secondary
60
Deposition of Pb
3.5
N-E & S
Foreign
National
2.0
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014
Changes in key source categories
Contribution of source categories to HM deposition in EMEP countries
Lead
Mercury
18
Road
transport
Energy
production
Metal
production
Combustion
in industry
Combustion
in industry
Metal
production
Energy
production
Nonindustrial
combustion
Nonindustrial
combustion
Waste
incineration
1990
2010
Other
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
Pb deposition, kt/y
Other
2.5
0
10
20
30
40
Hg deposition, t/y
TFMM trend analysis workshop, 17-18 November 2014