Applying Maritime Risk in
Decision Making
A Facilitated Discussion among
Decision Makers and Tool Builders
Abstract
During the final day of the symposium, a large discussion will be facilitated
with the intent to connect the needs of maritime risk users with risk tool
developers. Discussions will begin with responses from maritime security
professionals describing their typical days, the threats and challenges
faced, and the risk decisions they make. These professionals will also be
asked to provide details on the tools they currently use, gaps within
their risk decision making, and areas where expansion or new tools are
needed. Following the information sharing by security professionals, the
risk tool developers present will discuss the current tools used by the
professionals, potential uses of other tools available to security
professionals, and efforts underway to improve risk tools and address
the challenges faced by security professionals. If time permits after the
discussion of typical daily challenges and decisions, potential maritime
threat scenarios will be discussed to examine how these change the
needs of the decision makers and what risk tools are available or in
development to support these needs.
Maritime Environment
• 95,000 miles of coastline in the U.S.
• More than 430 commercial ports in the world
– 361 U.S. commercial ports
• 46,000 ships engaged in international trade
– 2,700 container vessels
– 23,281 bulk-cargo vessels
• Over 1 million seafarers in the international
merchant fleet
– More than 100,000 visit U.S. ports each year
Maritime Environment
• 12-15 million containers used in world trade
– More than 9 million arrive in U.S. ports annually
• 318 billion gallons of petroleum products shipped annually on U.S.
waters
• Millions of passengers traveling via ferries and cruises annually
– 9 million passengers board cruise ships in U.S. ports annually
– More than 66 million passengers travel by ferry annually in the U.S.
• Thousands of small vessels – recreational boats, fishing vessels, etc.
– More than 77 million adults annually engage in recreational boating
Example Maritime Attack Characteristics
Dimensions Example Characteristics
Perpetrators
- Al Qaeda and affiliates
- Foreign nationalists
- Others
- Islamist unaffiliated
- Disgruntled employees
Objectives
- Mass casualties
- Trade disruptions
- Port disruptions
- Environmental damage
Locations
- 360+ U.S. ports
- 9 key shipping bottlenecks
- 165 foreign trade partners
Targets
-
Military vessels
Fuel tankers
Port area populations
Port industrial plants
- Cargo vessels
- Ferries / cruise ships
- Ship channels
- Offshore platforms
Tactics
-
Explosives in suicide boats
Ramming with vessels
Harbor mines
Unmanned submarine bombs
Explosives in cargo ships
- Explosives in light aircraft
- Ship-launched missiles
- Underwater swimmers
- Exploding fuel tankers
- WMDs in cargo ships
Parfomak, P. W. & Frittelli, J. (2007) CRS Report for Congress Maritime Security: Potential Terrorist Attacks and
Protection Priorities. Retrieved from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33787.pdf
Sample Maritime Threats Scenarios
• A nuclear device aboard an incoming vessel
• Attack on port with biological disease agent
• Detonation of a “dirty” bomb in a shipping container
• Aircraft or small vessel attack on passenger ferry or cruise ship
• Chemical attack on a cruise ship (i.e. Sarin gas)
• Bombing and sinking of a liquefied propane gas (LPG) or liquefied
natural gas (LNG) tankers or terminals
Parfomak, P. W. & Frittelli, J. (2007) CRS Report for Congress Maritime Security: Potential Terrorist Attacks and
Protection Priorities. Retrieved from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33787.pdf
Sample Maritime Threats Scenarios
• Chlorine Tank Explosion
• Improvised Explosive Device attached to freighter
• Terrorist stowaways on an inbound vessels
• Explosion of oil tanker in shipping channel
• Theft of gasoline tanker truck
• Explosives attack on chlorine storage tank in port
Parfomak, P. W. & Frittelli, J. (2007) CRS Report for Congress Maritime Security: Potential Terrorist Attacks and
Protection Priorities. Retrieved from http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/homesec/RL33787.pdf
Maritime Agencies & Resources
• U.S. Coast Guard
• Customs & Border Protection
• U.S. Immigration & Customs Enforcement
• Port Authority & Security
• Transportation Security Administration
• State/Local Authority (Police, Sheriff, etc.)
Decision Makers Typical Day
• Please describe a typical day including the
following:
–
–
–
–
–
–
What threats are faced?
Which activities are conducted?
What resources do you have?
What demands are faced?
What are typical operations?
What are some standard events that occur
unexpectedly or on an unscheduled basis?
– What other missions are you directed to accomplish?
Given a Typical Day
Questions for Decision Makers
• What risk-based decisions are faced?
• Which tools are currently used to make these
decisions?
• What gaps exist in current risk tools for decision
makers? Where are the problems?
• How do unexpected changes impact decision
making?
What Risk-Based Decisions are
Made?
• What decisions is risk currently used for?
– (Funding, Testing, Research & Development,
Resource Allocation, etc.)
• How often are risk assessments performed?
– (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Annually, etc.)
• What level of the organization is performing riskbased decision making?
– (Strategic, Operational, Tactical)
What Risk-Based Decisions are
Made?
• How is risk used to determine resource
allocation?
• How often are risk assessments updated
and reviewed?
– (Daily, Weekly, Monthly, Annually, etc.)
What Tools are Currently Used?
What Gaps Exist in Current Tools?
What Problems are not Addressed?
• How are specific activities accounted for in risk
assessments?
– (Prevention, Deterrence, Response, Recovery efforts,
etc.)
• How are interactions between activities
accounted for?
• How are changes in assessments accounted for?
– (general threat increase, specific threat increase, etc.)
What Gaps Exist in Current Tools?
What Problems are not Addressed?
• Who and how are values for risk determined?
– (Threat, Vulnerability, Consequences)
• How is risk communicated?
– (Chain of Command, Public, Partners, etc.)
• How are other risk assessments incorporated?
– (Other agencies, private sector, other levels, etc.)
• How are negative consequences associated with
anti/counter terrorism activities incorporated into
assessments?
How do typical unexpected
changes impact decision making?
• How is an anonymous call about suspicious
activity in the port responded to?
• How does a mechanical breakdown in a resource
(i.e. patrol platform) impact decisions?
• How are resources and decisions affected by an
oil spill?
How do typical unexpected
changes impact decision making?
• What happens if a ship arrives to the port
unexpectedly? What if an HIV transit is delayed?
• How is a boating accident (i.e. SAR cases or
Cruise ship breakdown) incorporated into the
decision making process?
• How are simultaneous security events accounted
for? (i.e. HVU transit & ferry movement)
Given Typical Maritime Day
Questions for Risk Tool Providers
• How can current tools be refined and/or improved to
close gaps?
• What additional risk tools exist to assist in the decisions
faced?
• What ideas exist for addressing the gaps faced by
decision makers?
• How can risk tools account for sudden typical daily
changes?
How can Current Tools be Refined
or Improved?
• How can determination of values for risk
assessments be improved?
– (combination of SME input, collection of
quantitative data, etc.)
• How can risk assessments be automated?
What Additional Risk Tools Exist to
Meet Decision Makers Needs?
What Ideas Exist for Addressing the
Gaps Faced by Decision Makers?
• How can risk assessments be refined to
incorporate effectiveness?
– (Game theory, Bayesian Probabilities, etc.)
• How can risk assessments be refined to
incorporate interactions/overlaps of
activities?
What Ideas Exist for Addressing the
Gaps Faced by Decision Makers?
• How can risk assessments incorporate
negative impacts associated with HLS
activities?
– (i.e. slowdown of commerce, etc.)
• How can risk assessments be standardized
to facilitate risk communication?
How Can Risk Tools Account for
Sudden Typical Daily Changes?
• How are resource casualties/losses
incorporated?
• How are delays in schedules/or unexpected
arrivals accommodated?
• How are other competing demands beside
security factored into decision making? (i.e. SAR,
oil spill response, etc.)
Scenario #1
• A generator casualty to a cruise ship
causes the ship to loose power, blocking
the main shipping channel and delaying
the inbound transit of two High Interest
Vessels with boarding teams onboard.
Scenario #1 – Decision Makers
• Given the delays to security efforts (HIV
boarding/escort) and increased vulnerability of the cruise
ship, how would the daily decisions be affected?
• How would risk assessments incorporate these changes?
• What risk assessment tools could be used to support
resource decisions in this scenario?
• What gaps exist in addressing this type of scenario?
Scenario #1 – Tool Providers
• What risk tools exist to address this type of scenario or
incorporate the associated changes?
• How can risk tools be used to address the gaps
discussed?
•What risk tools would be used?
• What can be incorporated into current risk tools to
improve accuracy in decision making for this type of
scenario?
• What tools are in development that might assist decision
makers facing this scenario?
Scenario #2
• An accident at the port facility causes the
temporary shut down of work at the
facility.
Scenario #2 – Decision Makers
• How does this temporary event impact port
operations and security efforts?
• How does this event impact the decision making
process?
• What risk tools would be used?
• What gaps exist in addressing this type of
scenario?
Scenario #2 – Tool Providers
• What risk tools exist to address this type of scenario or
incorporate the associated changes?
• How can risk tools be used to address the gaps
discussed?
• What can be incorporated into current risk tools to
improve accuracy in decision making for this type of
scenario?
• What tools are in development that might assist decision
makers facing this scenario?
Scenario #3
• A recreational vessel with three people is
reported missing and was last seen taking
on water offshore in the early evening,
shortly before a scheduled security event.
Scenario #3 – Decision Makers
• How is the decision between demands competing for the same
resources made?
• What risk tools would be used?
• How is readiness to respond to an unexpected event (i.e. SAR)
incorporated into resource decisions?
• How is risk from SAR compared against risk from terrorism?
• What gaps exist in addressing this type of scenario?
Scenario #3 – Tool Providers
• What risk tools exist to compare risks between various
types of missions and competing demands?
• How can risk tools facilitate decision making in this
scenario?
• What can be incorporated into current risk tools to
improve accuracy in decision making for this type of
scenario?
• What tools are in development that might assist decision
makers facing this scenario?
Open Discussion