Wind and Transmission Corridors Western Central Chapter, American Planning Association August 13, 2010 Dave Olsen www.westerngrid.net 1 About Western Grid Group • 200 years state regulatory experience – Former chairmen, staff of 8 western PSCs • 50 years experience as wind, solar, geothermal, hydroelectric power developers • Non-profit NGO; works with Governors, utilities, regulators, agencies, advocates • Formed 2003 to develop policies to accelerate transition to sustainable electricity, win transmission access for clean resources 2 Presentation Overview 1. National energy policy context 2. Wind power development and major proposed transmission projects 3. Federal transmission policy 4. Transmission planning 5. Corridor fundamentals 6. Planning Challenges in the Transition to Low-Carbon Electricity 3 1. National Energy Policy Context – Policy Drivers – Low-carbon electric sector – Scale of transmission likely required – DOE interconnection-wide planning 4 Policy Drivers • • • Energy security: rely more on indigenous, inexhaustible sources Jobs, economic development: clean energy economy Sustainability: reduce emissions, toxics, land/habitat, water, public health impacts 5 Low-Carbon Electricity • IPCC: 80% GHG reduction by 2050 • Very low carbon electric sector Portfolio: Energy Efficiency, Demand Resources, Combined Heat-Power, Distributed Generation, Wind, Solar, Geothermal, Biomass; some Gas • More reliable • Potentially lower cost 6 Scale of Transmission Needed • • • • • With maximum Energy Efficiency, Distributed Generation, large amount utility-scale renewables needed 20% wind: ~300 GW Transmission needed to move power to cities in every region Regional plans underway; national plans considered 7 8 Interconnection-Wide Planning • • • • DOE funding 1st-ever plans for Eastern, Western and Texas interconnections Evaluate infrastructure needed by 2030 to support transition to low-carbon economy Requires utilities to coordinate power flow across different regions Involves range of stakeholders 9 2. Status of Wind Power Development and Major Planned Transmission Projects • DOE 2009 Wind Technologies Report • National High Voltage Transmission Overlay • Regional transmission projects 10 11 20 09 20 08 20 07 20 06 20 05 20 04 20 03 20 02 20 01 20 00 19 99 19 98 19 97 19 96 19 95 19 94 19 93 19 92 19 91 19 90 19 89 19 88 19 87 19 86 12 A nnual US Capacity (le ft scale) 8 24 6 18 4 12 2 6 0 0 C um ulativ e C a pa c ity (G W ) 10 19 85 19 84 19 83 19 82 19 81 A nn ua l C ap ac ity (G W ) U.S. Wind Power Up >40% in 2009 36 30 Cumulative US Capacity (right scale) Wind Power Contributed 39% of All New U.S. Generating Capacity in 2009 Total Annual Capacity Additions (GW) 80 Other non-Renewable Coal Gas (non-CCGT) Gas (CCGT) Other Renewable Wind 42% 42% wind wind 1% wind 70 3% wind 60 4% wind 50 40 0% wind 30 39% wind 2% wind 12% wind 20 42% wind 42%wind wind 35% wind 18% 44% wind 10 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: EIA, Ventyx, AWEA, IREC, Berkeley Lab 2008 Wind the 2nd-largest resource for the 5th-straight year 12 2009 U.S Lags Others in Wind as a % of Electricity Consumption Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2009 20% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2008 18% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2007 16% Approximate Wind Penetration, end of 2006 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 13 TOTAL Japan Brazil China Turkey Canada Australia France Sweden U.S. Austria India Italy UK Netherlands Greece Germany Ireland Spain 0% Portugal 2% Denmark Projected Wind Electricity as a Proportion of Electricity Consumption 22% ~ 300 GW Wind in Transmission Interconnection Queues 350 Entered Queue in 2009 Nameplate Capacity (GW) 300 Total in queue at end of 2009 250 200 150 100 50 0 Wind Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Solar 14 Other >90% Planned for Midwest, Mountain, ERCOT, PJM, SPP, NW Nameplate Wind Power Capacity (GW) 90 Entered queue in 2009 80 Total in queue at end of 2009 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 MISO / Midwest Mountain ERCOT PJM SPP Northwest California New York ISO ISO ISO-New Southeast England Not all of this capacity will be built…. 15 No Offshore Projects Built Yet, but 13 Are In Advanced Development •Three projects have signed or proposed power purchase agreements •Cape Wind granted approval by Department of Interior 16 State Policies Help Direct Location and Amount of Wind Development WA: 15% by 2020 MT: 15% by 2015 MN: 25% by 2025 Xcel: 30% by 2020 ME: 40% by 2017 NH: 23.8% by 2025 ND: 10% by 2015 OR: 25% by 2025 (large utilities) 5-10% by 2025 (smaller utilities) NV: 25% by 2025 IA: 105 MW by 1999 IL: 25% by 2025 MO: 15% by 2021 CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops and munis) OK: 15% by 2015 AZ: 15% by 2025 VT: 20% by 2017 NY: 30% by 2015 SD: 10% by 2015 WI: 10% by 2015 PA: 8.5% by 2020 UT: 20% by 2025 KS: 20% of peak demand by 2020 CA: 20% by 2010 MI: 10% by 2015 NM: 20% by 2020 (IOUs) 10% by 2020 (co-ops) NJ: 22.5% by 2021 MA: 11.1% by 2009 +1%/yr RI: 16% by 2019 CT: 23% by 2020 DE: 20% by 2019 OH: 12.5% by 2024 DC: 20% by 2020 MD: 20% by 2022 VA: 15% by 2025 NC: 12.5% by 2021 (IOUs) 10% by 2018 (co-ops and munis) AK: 50% by 2025 TX: 5,880 MW by 2015 HI: 40% by 2030 Mandatory RPS Non-Binding Goal Berkeley Lab •Source: KS established mandatory RPS in 2009; total now 29 states and D.C. • State renewable funds, tax incentives, utility resource planning, voluntary green power, carbon concerns played a role in 2009 17 American Electric Power’s Transmission Vision 18 19 20 21 22 3. Federal Transmission Policy Policy Basics Open Access Location-Constrained Resources Federal-State jurisdiction boundaries 23 Transmission Policy Basics • Transmission = ≥ 230 kV – Deemed to be in interstate commerce – FERC sets rates; state PSCs pass through FERC jurisdictional transmission costs • Distribution = ≤ 230 kV – Rates set by state PSCs • Congestion = limits on ability to deliver power; raises power costs • Key Issues: Planning, Permitting, Paying 24 Open Access • • • • Vertically integrated utilities use transmission to protect their generation from competition FERC Orders 888, 889 (1996) unbundle transmission from generation Regional Transmission Organizations (RTOs) provide regional service over utility-owned assets Drivers: Competitive neutrality, efficiency; regionalization, for economics, reliability 25 Location-Constrained Resources • Large generating projects can support dedicated major transmission lines • Gas generators can locate projects to access existing or planned transmission • Small, dispersed wind/solar projects cannot support major lines; can’t move generation sites • FERC policy now allows transmission to be built to wind projects, financed initially by utilities 26 Federal v. State Siting • Natural gas: FERC siting authority • Electricity: state siting authority – Complicates development of interstate transmission – State PSCs have authority only to borders • Proposed legislation: give FERC backstop siting authority, if states won’t approve needed transmission 27 4. Transmission Planning Planning practices evolving Interconnection animus Proposed planning standards 28 Planning Practices Evolving Until recently: • Consider only reliability, congestion, cost • Little regional planning; utility service areas only • Electrical experts only • Little environmental, land-use input Now, increasingly: • New stakeholders, more environmental input • New standards to earn public consent 29 Interconnection Animus • Many benefits of more interconnectedness – Can’t be considered in transmission approvals • 500 kV project: significant local impacts, and often local opposition – But small addition to regional grid – Regional benefits potentially large – State approvals restrict consideration of regional benefits 30 New Planning Standards • Earn public consent for new infrastructure • Energy security, jobs/economic impacts, environment, public health of most concern – Can’t be considered in most planning • New standards to incorporate emissions, land, wildlife, water, jobs, consumer benefits, energy independence • More stakeholder input => better plans 31 5. Corridor Fundamentals • Wind utilization of line capacity • AC and DC lines • • Minimizing ROW, maximizing power transfer Right-Sizing transmission projects 32 Wind Line Utilization • Wind uses ~35% of tx line capacity – Wind-only lines=>higher delivered power cost • To use more line capacity: – Combine with solar – good diurnal match – Over-build wind capacity, curtail at times – Design line to access different wind regimes • Some projects target 75% wind, 25% gas 33 AC and DC Lines • HVDC less expensive over long distances – But on/off-ramps very expensive; little benefit to states not having them – Can be under-grounded (at high cost) • HVAC lines less expensive to access generation, deliver power in each state – Approval often easier for interstate projects 34 Corridor Power Transfer • Maximize power transfer to minimize new corridors • 765 kV line carries as much power as six 345 kV lines • Reliability impacts manageable • Dynamic line ratings increase transfer – Wind cools lines, allows more flow 35 QuickTime™ and a decompressor are needed to see this picture. 36 Right-Sizing Transmission • Design projects to carry more power than needed at present – Long-term economic savings – Significant environmental benefits • Requires paying upfront cost of larger project; risk that extra capacity not used – Should customers pay? Government? 37 6. Planning Challenges in the Transition to Low-Carbon Electricity • Some key challenges • Routing design issues • Aligning project planning with local land-use plans 38 Some Key Challenges • • Building county/state support for large-scale regional transmission projects Modeling land, wildlife, water impacts in electric planning – Need consistent state data, new models • Interstate siting, cost allocation approvals – use planning venues to coordinate across state lines, build record on which decisions based • Designing to optimize wind-solar transfer 39 Routing Design Issues • Smart From the Start – Projects planned to protect habitat, ecosystems • Decision-support software – Allows communities to weight attributes of routing alternatives, sync with local land use plans • Make planning case for Right-sizing, maximizing power in corridors plans 40 Align with Local Land-Use Plans • Ensure compatibility with local comprehensive land-use, zoning plans • Minimize conflicts with local conservation acquisition priorities • Ensure consistency with regional transportation and infrastructure plans 41 For More Information, 1 Wind industry status, prospects 2009 Wind Technologies Market Report: http://eetd.lbl.gov/ea/ems/repubs.html DOE 20% Wind by 2030: http://www.20percentwind.org/ DOE Interconnection-wide Planning Eastern: http://www.eipconline.com/ Western: http://www.wecc.biz/Planning/TransmissionExpansion/RTEP/Pages/default.aspx Emerging system planning standards FERC Planning-Cost Allocation NOPR (Docket No. RM10-23-000, June 17, 2010): http://www.ferc.gov/whats-new/comm-meet/2010/061710/E-9.pdf 42 For More Information, 2 Power transfer in corridors American Electric Power, Right-of-Way Stewardship, http://www.aep.com/about/i765project/docs/LookingTowardstheFuture.pdf Routing Alternatives Decision Support Facet Decision Systems, web-based scenario modeling: http://www.facet.com/ourcapabilities.html: “Smart from the Start” Project Design Nevada Wilderness Project: http://www.wildnevada.org/smartfromthestart.html 43