The water-food-energy nexus from an
energy system modelling perspective
Paul Dodds
Introduction
• Who we are and what we do
• Energy system models
• Initial thoughts on the water-food-energy nexus
• Our interests in this research area
Who we are and what we do
• UCL Energy Institute (energy systems, buildings, transport)
• UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources (food, bioenergy, water,
mineral and petrochemical resources, and waste, from environmental,
economic and policy perspectives)
• Energy systems:
– UK MARKAL energy systems model, which underpins UK
government decarbonisation strategies.
– TIAM (TIMES Integrated Assessment Model) is a global energy
systems model with a climate component and a UK region
• Policy work
MARKAL modelling for UK policy
Model
type
2010
2007
2000
EWP 03
CAT
Strategy
STND
STND
Energy
Review
EWP 07 CC Bill
CCC 1st
report
MACRO
LCTP
CCC &
DECC
analysis
MED
TIAM-UCL,
Stochastic
UK Government, CCC
Funding
UK Government
UKERC, Research council projects, UK-Japan LCS,
Ofgem, NGOs etc
Rapid simple
structured model
development to
inform EWP 03
CCS
enhancement
for CAT
strategy
Major 2 year UKERC
programme; enhanced UK
model with MACRO
extension
MED model
development with
major CCC and
UKERC scenarios
Stochastic MED
model , Global
TIMES model
(UKERC)
Assessing Energy, Economy, Engineering &
Environment (E4) Interactions
ENERGY AND ECONOMY
GDP & CAPITAL
REQUIREMENTS
ENERGY SERVICES
DEMANDS
MINING LIMITS &
TRADE (including IET)
AVAILABILITY/CHOICE
OF TECHNOLOGIES
MARKALMACRO/ED
ENVIRONMENTAL
LIMITS
ENVIRONMENT
ENVIRONMENTAL
EFFECTS
5
Characterisation of MARKAL/TIMES
•
•
•
•
•
•
Linear
Partial equilibrium
Perfect foresight
Bottom-up
Energy-economic-environment-engineering
Cost-optimisation
• Energy flows, environmental constraints, economic and
policy focus
Energy Modelling typology
Top-down
Bottom-up
Behaviour
Simulation
Econometric
Optimisation
Computable
general
equilibrium
Macroeconometric
Growth
models
Hybrid Models
Integrated Assessment
Models
Climate
Always a trade-off in model type, focus and implementation
8
Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus
Self sufficiency
Security
Water
How will climate change and
population growth affect
domestic and agricultural
supplies? New investment?
Will the price of water increase
to an unsustainable level for
part of the population?
Food
How will food production
change in the future? Longterm trends and short-term
variability
How will local production and
world food price trends and
fluctuations affect the price of
food for the UK population?
Energy
Will the UK become dependent
on foreign energy supplies?
How will climate variability
affect future production?
How will local production and
world energy price trends and
fluctuations affect the price of
energy for the UK population?
Our questions on the water-food-energy nexus
• How can the UK government mitigate the impact of global
water, food and energy shortages in the long term?
• How could the impact of water, food and energy insecurities
in other countries affect the UK?
– Public disorder
– Cross-border conflicts over resources
– Mass migration
• Are there economic opportunities for the UK caused by
water, food and energy insecurities abroad?
Water-food-energy interactions
• Are there currently strong links between water, food and
energy in the UK?
• Could there be strong links in the future?
– e.g. land uses for crops or bioenergy – with a high CO2 price,
producing biomass could be much more lucrative for UK farmers
than producing food in the future (McDowall et al. 2012).
• Should we consider short-term phenomena (e.g. interrupted
electricity supplies due to flooding)?
UCL ISR research programme
DEFINITIONS AND
INDICATORS OF
SUSTAINABILITY
GREEN
ECONOMY
Resource depletion,
air/land/water pollution,
competing land uses,
community impacts
Infrastructure, innovation,
policies for different economic
sectors and localities, countries
and the global economy
PROGRAMME RESOURCE AREAS
BIOTIC
RESOURCES
Water, soil, forests,
food, habitats,
biodiversity,
ecosystems
ABIOTIC
RESOURCES
Fossil fuels, metals,
non-metallic minerals
SPACE
Land, Sea
RESOURCE
EFFICIENCY
Technologies,
innovation,
institutions,
governance, policies