Annual State of the Energy Industry
United States Energy Association
January 18, 2012
The Future of Coal
Hal Quinn
President & CEO
National Mining Association
Global Growth in Coal Consumption
Source: EIA’s Rising Asian demand drives global coal consumption growth
Asian Growth in Coal Consumption
Source: EIA’s Rising Asian demand drives global coal consumption growth
Global Megatrends
Hyper-Urbanization
Half the population resides in urban
centers today—75% by 2050
Technology
2 billion connected people and 1 trillion
connected objects=more energy
Page  4
Explosion in ‘world middle
class’
Rising middle class in
developing world is shifting
global consumption and supply
patterns
Per Capita Electricity Consumption (kWh)
14,000
12,000
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
India
Page 5
Brazil
China
Russia
U.S.
New Coal Generation 2011-2015 (GW)
U.S. 8
Europe
16
Other
Asia
27
ROW
16
China
250
India
75
Page 6
• ~400 GW of new coal
generation
• ~1.4 billion tons of new
annual coal supply over
next five years
Global Metallurgical Coal Demand
Growth
• China, India and Brazil steel
intensity in acceleration
stage
~30%
• China largest steel producer
internal met coal production
not keeping pace with
demand
Global Metallurgical Coal Demand
Year
Tons
(Millions)
2010
920
2015
1,185
2020
Page 7
1,140
~60%
• Brazil and India rely on
imports for majority of met
coal needs
Regulatory Accounting
Regulations
Projected Impacts
Retirement
Projection (GW)
 Cross-State Air Pollution Rule
Analyst
 Utility MACT Rule
Federal Energy Regulatory
Commission
81
EVA
51
NERA Economic Consulting
48
 GHG Performance Standards
 Coal Ash
 Cooling Water Intake Structures
U.S. Energy Information
Administration
45-73
North American Electric
Reliability Corporation
33 -77
Environmental Protection
Agency
Page 8
14
Technology Solutions vs. Fuel Bridges