WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT Zekâi Şen Turkish Water Foundation WATER FOUNDATION Arid regions of the world WATER FOUNDATION HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE Cities Cities Cities Cities DROUGHTS FLOODS POLLUTION WATER MANAGEMENT Diagram illustrating major pathways of changes. Demographic and economic growth, and increasingly consumptive life style, drive the changes in hydrological cycles and freshwater resources through changes in land use, water withdrawals, and climate related to food production and the emission of the greenhouse gases (GHGs). (Modified from Oki, 2005 by Şen, 2008). WATER MANAGEMNT RELATED SIGNIFICANT DECISION PARAMETERS INTENSITY DURATION Design Early warning Dimension Risk Insurance Operation Volume FREQUENCY Warning INTEGRATED MANAGEMENT OF WATER RESOURCES FUTURE WATER RESOURCES PLANNING STEPS Spatial Environment (areal extent, depth) Temporal Environment (replenish-able, non-replenish-able) Hydrogeological Environment (geological structure, voids, fissures, fractures) Hydro-chemical Environment (Chemical quality, ion exchange, salt water intrusion, pollution) Alternative Strategies (runoff, desalination, aquifers, long distance transportation, rainfall and runoff harvesting) Emergency Situations (earthquakes, land slides, terrorist attacks, wars, system mal-functioning) WATER FOUNDATION FUTURE FACTS “Of all the social and natural crises we humans face, the water crisis is the one that lies at the heart of our survival and that of our planet Earth,” “No region will be spared from the impact of crisis which touches every facet of life, from the health of children to the ability of nations to secure food for their citizens,” “Water supplies are falling while the demand is dramatically growing at an unsustainable rate. Over the next 20 years, the average supply of water world-wide per person is expected to drop by a third.” “By the middle of this century, 7 billion people in 60 countries will be faced with water scarcity, at best 2 billion in 48 countries, depending on factors like population growth and policy-making” "The survival of humanity and of all other species on earth depends upon the fate of water. Where water is absent, life is absent," "Technological, economic and scientific solutions are not enough," "Water is different than other resources, such as oil. People of different religious and scientific backgrounds treat water in a special way”. "There's the realization that scientific and political approaches are needed, but they are not sufficient. A spiritual and ethical approach is needed as well." “People have fought over dominance of water sources for thousands of years”, Fresh Water: A Scarce and Critical Resource Population Growth The Middle East population more than doubled between 1970 and 2001, rising from 173 million people to 386 million people and reducing the average amount of fresh water available per capita by more than half, to 1,640 cubic meters per person per year Household Demand Household demand for water is affected by a variety of factors, such as household size, households' distance from the source of water, how regularly water is accessible, and people's consumption patterns. The Middle East growing population, together with higher per capita income, greater urbanization, and greater access to running water, has been driving up the region's domestic demand for fresh water. Qanats and Rainwater Harvesting – Ain Zubaidah Qanats, or chain wells, a traditional method for bringing water to the surface, consist of a series of horizontal tunnels bored into a cliff or mountainous area. Sequential Water Use (Reuse) Sequential water use involves capturing and treating water that has been used in one sector so that it can be directed to other uses. Domestic use requires the cleanest water, so the ideal order is for water to be used in the household first, then in industry, then in agriculture Desalination Extracting salt from seawater is extremely expensive. Desalination provides a clean and reliable source of water, but it uses large quantities of heat and has some negative environmental consequences. Sixty percent of the world's desalination capacity lies in the oilrich Gulf states Trading Water There are a number of ways to transport water from one region to another, including shipping it by boat, transporting it via pipeline, towing it in large water bags (Medusa bags), and carrying it overland in vehicles. Strategies for Managing Demand Successful policies and programs for managing water supplies might involve strategies for promoting more desirable patterns and levels of water use. Water Reallocation For most the Middle East countries, reallocating water away from agriculture and toward the domestic and industrial sectors may be a critical, although controversial way to adjust to water scarcity. Less Water-Intensive Crops A number of the Middle East countries rely heavily on their own production of cereals, which have a low return per unit of land and water. Efficient Technologies Better technologies may help reduce long-term costs and improve efficiency. Studies have shown, for example, that drip irrigation cuts water use by between 30 percent and 70 percent and increases crop yields by between 20 percent and 90 percent, compared with traditional irrigation. Distribution Efficiencies Other measures for improving distribution, such as repairing leaking distribution systems and sewer pipes, expanding central sewage systems, metering water connections, and rationing and restricting water use, can also play important roles. Public Education and Community Involvement Involving communities in adopting new strategies can increase acceptance of new water systems. Institutional Reforms Complicated systems of water rights, land rights, social and civic institutions, and legal regimes can sometimes undermine water management; reform could improve how water resources are regulated BASIC DEFINITIONS 1) ARIDITY: It is a permanent natural condition and a stable climatic feature of a region, 2) DROUGHT: It refers to a temporary feature of the climate or to regular but unpredictable climatic changes, 3) WATER SHORTAGE: It is understood mostly as a man-made phenomenon reflecting the concern with temporary and small area water deficiencies, and 4) DESERTIFICATION: It is a part of an alteration process in the ecological regime often associated with aridity and/or drought but principally brought about by human-made activities which change the surrounding environment to a significant degree. WATER FOUNDATION WATER FOUNDATION ARIDITY AND HUMIDITY Precipitation Extremely humid High Extremely humid Humid Moderate Semi-arid Extremely arid Arid Low 0 Cold Warm Hot Temperature Water resources in general are subject to various external effects that cause its amount to decrease by time and recently even by location. Among these undesirable events the following are just the most significant ones. 1) Population increase not only by birth but equally importantly by migration due to economical, political, military, religious, social and hazardous situations. 2) Industrial investments, development and processing in potential catchment areas and especially groundwater recharge areas lead to pollution of water resources and hence water potentiality for domestic use decreases, 3) Recent climate change, global warming and greenhouse events give rise to groundwater resources quantity and quality deteriorations, 4) Mis-management of water resources in general and groundwater reservoirs in particular may lead to over-pumping and consequent groundwater quality changes, WATER FOUNDATION Groundwater resources are the most conservative reservoirs and have the most significant strategic properties especially for arid regions due to the following facts. 1) Since they infiltrate and penetrate geological layers their quality are better than surface waters provided that the geological formations such as quartz, granite, sandstones, alluvial deposits are the traveling media. Groundwater resources are most preferable for drinking purposes than any other sources, 2) They are protected from any atmospheric pollution events and can preserve the quality and temperature throughout the whole year, 3) Groundwater resources are available anywhere in the world and therefore they are the most dependable water resources especially in the cases of dangers such as natural or anthropogenic disasters, 4) Aquifers are natural and dependable reservoir spaces for storage of water for future use without much cost. Besides, storage of groundwater in aquifers reduces evaporation losses almost to zero even in very hot climates and therefore they are preferable in arid regions. WATER FOUNDATION The water development studies in different regions should include the following three fundamental steps in mind. Data base Restrictions a) Water demand quantity and types (domestic or agriculture), b) Safe yield, c) Possibility of supply and locations, d) Water demand quality, e) Supply possibilities and restrictions, WATER FOUNDATION f) Water structure levels and capacities, g) Possible volume for future water storage, h) Present water volume for availability, i) Rainfall water volume for replenishment, j) Water resources potentiality, k) Any limitation on water structure methods, l) Water contamination and pollution possibilities, m) Economic situation under available budget restrictions n) Other jointly manageable nearby water storages. Effective field survey The following questions can be asked and at least partial solutions may be suggested. • Which locations have the priority for water development in the study area? • What other water resources in the nearby locations can be managed in an integrated manner so as to reach to an optimum solution? • What are the possibility of additional supply location and pumping in the whole area? • Are there adequate water resources quantitatively to meet the demand in the area? • Is the water quality is suitable for the development activities in and nearby the area? • What are the discharge and recharge possibilities and rates temporally and spatially in the study area? • Are there water mixture possibility so as to enhance the water quality and quantity? WATER FOUNDATION • What are the potentiality in the area and are there different aquifers that may be exploited in an integrated manner? • Are there possibilities of quick droughts thus increase in the pumping lift? • Are there any potential hazard either to the groundwater resource from pollution to any infrastructure due to excessive pumping and subsidence? • What is the number of population that can be supported by the available water resource? • If there are already water development studies in the area, is it possible to integrate them in the management program? WATER FOUNDATION WATER USAGE MAY BE CURTAILED THROUGH SOME EFFECTIVE MECHANISMS, WHICH MAY BE STATED AS FOLLOWS. The water reservoir monitoring requires extensive records and investigations. This may be one of the key reasons why overdraft may escape recognition until it is too late because the effects of development are commonly obscure, complex and becomes understandable slowly by time, The causes and effects of water overdraft are not reversible immediately or fully. Consequently, cutting of withdrawals in the reverse order of their priorities does not assure that the overdraft trend will be reversed. There may be either of two reasonable doubts that the available facts would suffice to sustain them against any appeal from an order for reduction, or that the statutory procedure would in fact recapture the status of the earlier appropriators, Even in a water basin in which the perennial or sustainable yield and appropriations for use are about equal in total, some further development may be feasible. WATER FOUNDATION CLIMATE CHANGE DUE TO HUMAN INTERACTION WITH ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT WATER FOUNDATION Global warming questions are: How much is the world warming? Is the recent warming unusual? How rapidly did climate change in the distant past? Have precipitation and atmospheric moisture changed? Are the atmospheric/oceanic circulations changing? Has climate variability, or have climate extremes, changed? Are the observed trends internally consistent? What are the effects on WATER RESOURCES? “Scientific information and knowledge” WATER FOUNDATION 10-12 km Expansion due to GLOBAL WARMING 700 m 2000-2050 250 WATER FOUNDATION 2000-2050 Kuraklık ? 200 Yönetim ? Frequency Sıklık 150 100 Taşkın ? 50 Kuraklık ? 250 0 20 40 60 80 100 Monthly precipitation (mm) 120 2050-2100 140 Aylık yağışlar (mm) 200 Frequency Sıklık 0 2050-2100 Yönetim? 150 100 Taşkın ? 50 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Monthly precipitation (mm) Aylık yağışlar (mm) 140 160 180 90 90 2000-2025 80 2025-2050 80 70 70 60 Frequency 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 100 20 40 60 80 Monthly precipitation (mm) 90 100 120 0 0 120 20 40 60 80 100 2050-2075 120 140 2075-2100 100 80 70 80 60 50 60 40 40 30 20 20 10 0 0 50 100 150 0 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 160 180 Water Resources Basins Metropolitan City of Istanbul KIRKLARELİ TEKİRDAĞ İSTANBUL MELEN İSTANBUL KOCAELİ DÜZCE Water Resources Basins Cover Approx. %46 of the Province of Istanbul Average Precipitation in the Province of Istanbul (mm). Annually Avarage Precipitation (mm) ŞİLE MONTHLY AVARAGE PRECIPITATION (mm) 200 150 100 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 Kilometer FLORYA MONTHLY AVARAGE PRECIPITATION (mm) BAHÇEKÖY MONTHLY AVARAGE PRECIPITATION (mm) 200 200 150 150 100 100 50 50 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 (KARACA,M.2006) Lakes, Forest Areas, Agricultural Fields and Settlement Areas of the Province of Istanbul Agricultural Fields Lakes and Reservoirs Forest Areas Settlement Areas Kilometer Meteorological Stations (Karaca ve diğ., 2005) Current and Prospective Water Resources for the Metropolitan City of Istanbul (Million m ³ /yıl - %) ( Sazlıdere Dam Büyükçekmece Dam Terkos Dam ; 100 ; 4% ; 142 ; 6% ; 55 ; 2% Alibeyköy Dam ; 36 ; 2% Istrancalar; 235.2; 11% Groundwater ; 10 ; 1% Şile Caisson Wells ; 30 ; 1 % Ömerli Dam Melen Project; 1190; 53% Darlık Dam ; 220 ; 10 % ; 97 ; 4% Elmalı I and II ; 15 ; 1% Yeşilvadi Çevirme Yapısı 0% Yesilçay Regulator ; 10 ; ; 145 ; 6% Küçükmehmetoglu, M. & Geymen, A., (2006) Bu yazılım vasıtası ile Türkiye’de istenen bir şehrin gösterilen pencereden seçilmesi ile 2100 yılına kadar aylık olarak tüm meteoroloji ve hidroloji bilgilerine ulaşmak mümkündür. Ayrıca her hangi bir ilçenin (veya köyün veya merak edilen noktanın) enlem ve boylamı girilerek aynı meteorolojik ve hidrolojik değişkenlerin bu nokta için değerlerini 2100 yılına kadar aylık olarak üretmek mümkündür. GOZTEPE EH4OPYC-A2 FLORYA EH4OPYC-A2 900 1000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K 500 400 300 200 O S M N a FLORYA EH4OPYC-A2 M H T Aylar A E E K A GOZTEPE EH4OPYC-A2 1200 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1000 800 600 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 1000 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 1200 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 600 0 A 1400 400 800 600 400 SU VAKFI 200 200 0 700 100 100 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 800 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 900 O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K A 0 O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K A FLORYA EH4OPYC-A2 GOZTEPE EH4OPYC-A2 900 1000 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 700 600 500 400 800 300 200 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 900 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 800 100 O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K 0 A O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K A c FLORYA EH4OPYC-A2 GOZTEPE EH4OPYC-A2 1000 1000 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 800 700 600 500 800 400 300 700 600 500 400 300 200 200 100 100 0 O S M 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 900 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 900 N M H T Aylar A E E K 0 A d SU VAKFI O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K A FLORYA EH4OPYC-A2 GOZTEPE EH4OPYC-A2 900 1000 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 700 600 500 400 300 200 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 2041 2042 2043 2044 2045 2046 2047 2048 2049 2050 900 Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) Ardışık toplam aylık yağış (mm) 800 100 O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K 0 A O S M N M H T Aylar A E E K A e SU VAKFI RUNOFF HARVESTING FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT RECOMMENDATIONS 1) Research priorities (data networks, problems of scale, need for interdisciplinary dialogue), 2) Research management (large scale land-surface experiments, advanced planning for remote sensing, communication with decision makers and the public), 3) Project design and management (effect of climate change, broad dialogue on practical operational problems, conflict resolution on water issues), and 4) Policy formulation (national planning based on up-to-date information, respect for local culture and level of development, involvement of all stakeholders at an early stage). WATER FOUNDATION