The Economy: How Do We Know What We Know? Lucas Hitt U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis November 6, 2014 Let’s Talk About Economic Data Federal Economic Statistics National Accounting Lessons from the Great Recession & Evolutions to Come BEA 101 Online & Other Resources www.bea.gov 2 Origin of the GDP Accounts “One reads with dismay of Presidents Hoover and then Roosevelt designing policies to combat the Great Depression of the 1930’s on the basis of such sketchy data as stock price indices, freight car loadings, and incomplete indices of industrial production. The fact was that comprehensive measures of national income and output did not exist at the time. The Depression, and with it the growing role of government in the economy, emphasized the need for such measures and led to the development of a comprehensive set of national income accounts.” Richard T. Froyen www.bea.gov 3 National Accounts & GDP: 75 Years of Responding to Policy Needs and Changes in the Economy www.bea.gov 4 Contribution of the National Accounts to Stability and Economic Growth “Much like a satellite in space can survey the weather across an entire continent so can the GDP give an overall picture of the state of the economy. It enables the President, Congress, and the Federal Reserve to judge whether the economy is contracting or expanding, whether the economy needs a boost or should be reined in a bit, and whether a severe recession or inflation threatens. Without measures of economic aggregates like GDP, policymakers would be adrift in a sea of unorganized data. The GDP and related data are like beacons that help policymakers steer the economy toward the key economic objectives.” Paul Samuelson and William Nordhaus www.bea.gov 5 Contribution of the National Accounts to Stability and Economic Growth National accounts, in combination with better informed policies and institutions, contributed to a reduction in the severity of business cycles and strong post-war economic growth. 1854 – 1945: Twenty two financial panics and depressions, longer and deeper than post-war recessions, with an average duration of 21 months. During the great depression U.S. GDP contracted by 26 percent. 1945-2013: Eleven recessions, with an average duration of 11 months. During the great recession U.S. GDP contracted by 4.3 percent. www.bea.gov 6 Contribution of the National Accounts to Stability and Economic Growth Post WW II era a period of unprecedented growth. Real GDP per capita and real wealth has more than doubled during the post war era. Dramatic improvement in standards of living that contributed to large improvements in social conditions, cutting poverty in half, raising life expectancy, and adding to leisure time. www.bea.gov 7 Challenges: Looking Forward Addressing gaps revealed by the Great Recession Improved measures on key issues including innovation, health care, pensions, and human capital Improved measures of economic welfare, including distribution of income www.bea.gov 8 Gaps Revealed by the Great Recession www.bea.gov 9 Gaps Revealed by the Great Recession www.bea.gov 10 Gaps Revealed by the Great Recession www.bea.gov 11 Post Financial Crisis & Great Recession Challenges: How Did We “Miss” the Stock Price Bubble? www.bea.gov Source: BEA, S&P 12 Better Understanding the Impact of Innovation on Growth Intellectual property products (new category including R&D, software and entertainment, literary and artistic originals) increased the growth rate of real GDP by .19 percentage point, a 7.6% share of growth. From 1995-2012, incorporating R&D investment increased the growth rate of real GDP by.07 percentage point, a 2.8% share of growth. Even if IP spillovers are as large as direct effects, the contribution of IP appears to explain only part of the 1/3 of long-term share of growth accounted for by multi-factor productivity. www.bea.gov 13 Better Understanding the Impact of Innovation on Growth In comparison, private investment in commercial and other types of structures accounted for just over .4 percent of average real GDP growth from 1995-2012. The contribution to average real GDP growth from IP products is larger than private investment in computers and peripheral equipment. Recognition of private R&D as investment raises private fixed investment by 10 percent in 2012. www.bea.gov 14 Entertainment, Literary and Artistic Originals Share of Investment in Entertainment, Literary and Artistic Originals by Type Misc. Music Theatrical Movies Books Long-Lived Television Source: BEA www.bea.gov Total Investment in 2012: $74.8 billion 15 Improved Measures of Economic Welfare: Happiness & the Financial Crisis Unemployment rate Gallup Well-being Index Source: BEA, Gallup www.bea.gov 16 Improved Measures of Economic Welfare: Distribution of Income www.bea.gov Source: BEA & Census Bureau 17 About BEA The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) is an Executive-branch agency. BEA is one of the world’s leading statistical agencies BEA is very small (500 employees) compared to other statistical agencies. Most input data collected for purposes other than the development of our statistics. No BEA employee is a political appointee. www.bea.gov 18 BEA’s Role in the Federal Statistical System Comprehensive Measures of the U.S. Economy Double-entry sets of economic accounts National, International, Regional, and Industry Accounts Except for its International Surveys, BEA accounts are built on a mosaic of public and private data collected for other purposes Mine-Shaft Canary for U.S. Statistics www.bea.gov 19 Source Data for BEA Accounts Other source agencies: EIA - DoE NASS, ERS, NCES, and HHS-CMS www.bea.gov Lots of private data 20 BEA’s National Economic Accounts The National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) are a set of economic accounts that track economic flows within the U.S. economy. Two key NIPA measures are: Gross domestic product (GDP): Measures the total value of goods and services produced within the U.S. in a period. Gross domestic income (GDI): Measures the incomes earned and the costs incurred in producing those goods and services. www.bea.gov 2 1 Expenditure Components of GDP (2013) GDP = C + I + G + X - M Consumption 68.4% + www.bea.gov Investment Government Exports Imports 15.9% 18.6% 13.5% 16.4% + + - = GDP 2 2 Dating the Business Cycle www.bea.gov How are GDP Estimates Used? Policymaking Academic research Business decisions www.bea.gov 2 4 The Right Trade Off Between Accuracy and Timeliness? www.bea.gov 25 BEA’s International Economic Accounts Balance of payments (International transactions accounts) Trade balance Current-account balance International investment position Operations of multinational companies International services www.bea.gov 2 6 BEA-Developed Source Data BEA surveys provide important international data Direct investment (U.S. and abroad) Operations of multinational companies (MNCs) Trade in services Mandatory surveys are sent to: U.S. MNCs and U.S. affiliates of foreign companies. U.S. companies that import or export services www.bea.gov 27 How are International Statistics Used? Macroeconomic policy decisions Determining market size, share, and direction Analyzing size and composition of inbound and outbound direct investment As a measure of globalization www.bea.gov 28 Monthly Exports and Imports: Goods & Services www.bea.gov 29 BEA’s Industry Economic Accounts Input-Output Accounts (Benchmark & Annual Tables) GDP-by-industry statistics Gross Output Intermediate Inputs Value Added KLEMS Travel and Tourism Satellite Account Research and Development Satellite Account www.bea.gov 30 Input-Output (Use) Table INDUSTRIES Natural TransporResource Construc- Manufac- tation and and Mining tion turing Utilities C O M M O D I T I E S V A L U E A D D E D Natural Resource and Mining FINAL USES (GDP) Trade Services Personal Government Total Consumpconsumption Intermetion Private Change in Exports of Imports of expenditures diate Expendifixed private goods and goods and and gross tures investment inventories services services investment Uses Other 82 11 286 63 2 10 10 463 Construction 8 1 12 12 4 74 42 153 Manufactured Products 58 232 1,337 74 103 406 200 2,410 1,248 566 14 495 Transportation and Utilities 22 21 158 96 77 150 69 593 333 19 0 Trade 14 74 201 12 47 86 30 463 1,093 123 Services 84 146 544 154 381 2,487 440 4,235 4,695 1 0 31 31 23 77 27 190 268 485 2,570 442 636 3,290 817 8,508 Other Total Intermediate Inputs Compensation of employees 61 368 765 260 700 2,809 1,135 6,097 Taxes on production and imports, less subsidies 10 5 33 49 276 364 -12 724 Gross operating surplus 116 109 483 164 285 2,487 207 3,851 187 483 1,280 473 1,261 5,659 1,330 10,672 455 968 3,851 915 1,897 8,949 2,146 19,180 Total Value Added TOTAL INDUSTRY OUTPUT www.bea.gov 49 30 -7 25 -119 Total TOTAL final COMuses MODITY (GDP) OUTPUT -22 442 217 879 1,032 -1,015 84 1,393 3,803 59 -13 2 400 994 2 68 20 10 1,317 1,780 290 0 165 -42 28 5,135 9,370 80 -83 4 98 -166 1,636 1,569 1,760 7,499 1,608 14 910 -1,335 1,977 10,672 19,180 663 Industry Output = Commodity Output Total Industry Output = Intermediate Industry Purchases + Value Added GDP by Industry www.bea.gov 32 How are Industry Statistics Used? Study production capacity and productivity across industries Examine effects of a strike or a natural disaster on the U.S. economy Measure the impact of trade policies Assess cross-industry impacts of economic and regulatory changes www.bea.gov BEA’s Regional Economic Accounts Gross Domestic Product State/Territory, Metropolitan Area Personal Income State, Metropolitan Area, County Regional Input-Output Multipliers (RIMS II) www.bea.gov 34 How are Regional Statistics Used? Analysis of state and local economic impacts of national or state economic trends Project tax revenues, the need for public services, or promote economic development opportunities Conduct market research Allocate federal funds to states www.bea.gov BEA Regional Income & Product Account Estimates Used to Distribute $ 320 Billion in Federal Funds, FY2012 Medicaid Medicaid Grants Medicaid $204,053 $262,389 Medicaid Grants Medicaid Medicaid Grants $262,389 $262,389 Grants $262,389 $262,389 bea.gov All other $23,098 111 Largest Counties Account for ½ U.S. Personal Income www.bea.gov 37 Personal Income www.bea.gov 38 Regional Example: Oklahoma City Compensation 71 % growth www.bea.gov 39 Regional Example: Hawaii GDP Industry GDP 350 300 250 200 125 % growth 150 100 50 0 2008 www.bea.gov 2009 2010 2011 40 BEA’s New Regional Data Products BEA is releasing several new statistical products in 2014, as a part of an ongoing effort to better measure the dynamic regional economies. Quarterly GDP by State Real Personal Income for State and Metropolitan Areas Personal Consumption Expenditures by State U.S. Quarterly GDP by Industry www.bea.gov BEA home page features www.bea.gov 42 Automated Feeds www.bea.gov 43 Research www.bea.gov 44 Economy at a Glance www.bea.gov 45 Twitter Follow us @BEA_News to get the latest updates on BEA Follow us @BEA_Jobs to stay on top of job openings at BEA and career fairs Seriously, take a minute and follow us now – it’s OK www.bea.gov Media www.bea.gov 47 Email www.bea.gov 48 Questions Contact Information: Lucas Hitt Chief of Communications U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis Lucas.Hitt@BEA.gov 202-606-9223 www.bea.gov 49