Generalized Trust Through Civic Engagement? Evidence from Five National Panel Studies Erik van Ingen Sociology Tilburg University September 17, 2013 René Bekkers Philanthropic Studies VU University Amsterdam MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 1 Our question • What is the influence of civic engagement on generalized trust? – Not: particularized trust, or risky investments in social dilemma situations; – But: the belief that most people can be trusted • Does the level of trust change after people change their involvement in voluntary associations? September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 2 Additional questions • How long does it take the participation effect to emerge? • Is it robust across countries? • What types of civic engagement make the largest contribution to trust? September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 3 Why Trust Matters • More trusting societies have lower corruption and crime, and higher participation in elections and economic growth. • More trusting individuals are more satisfied with their lives, have more positive social relations, do better in education and are in better health. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 4 Virtuous circles in social capital • “Civic engagement and trust are mutually reinforcing” • “The causal arrows among civic involvement, [..] and social trust are as tangled as well-tossed spaghetti” Robert D. Putnam (2000). Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon & Schuster, page 137 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 5 How it might work • Socialization: Engagement in voluntary associations produces positive social experiences, reinforcing the belief that most people can be trusted. • Contact, peer influence: Engagement in voluntary associations exposes participants to the beliefs of others, ‘risking infection’ with the belief that most people can be trusted. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 6 An alternative perspective • Volunteering requires trust. • If you don’t trust fellow citizens to be honest and keep their promises, contributions are wasted easily. • Free riders are distrustors. • Trustors are optimists by nature, and trust doesn’t change much over time. Eric Uslaner (2002). The Moral Foundations of Trust. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 7 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 8 Data and methods of previous studies • Most studies use cross-sectional data, including a limited set of controls. • Selection and omitted variables are a huge problem here. • Studies using longitudinal panel data have almost all used inadequate regression models. • Selection and omitted variables are still a problem here. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 9 The evidence thus far • Delhey & Newton (2003): trust and membership are only weakly correlated in most countries – due to low reliability • Brehm & Rahn (1997): reciprocal influences between trust and membership in US using 2SLS • Uslaner (2002): results obtained from 2SLS not robust in different specifications September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 10 Collecting better data • D.H. Smith (1966) and Stolle (2003): we need panel data • Claibourn & Martin (2000): no effect of changes in memberships on changes in trust in US panel study of political socialization • Giving in the Netherlands Panel Study includes trust + volunteering questions since 2002 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 11 A theory on selection for trust • ‘Interactionism’ in personality and social psychology • Individual differences in trust shape perceptions of contributions to collective goods • Failures to contribute by others are ‘noise’ to trustors; ‘evidence’ for misanthropists • Justification-effects reinforce prior differences in trust September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 12 As a result… • Trustors are more likely to (be asked to) start volunteering, and less likely to quit • Misanthropists are less likely to (be asked to) start volunteering, and more likely to quit • Trustors may become more trusting and misanthropists may become less trusting as a result of changes in volunteering September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 13 It’s all about selection! • BTW, note also: – Individuals with larger networks are more likely to be asked to start and continue volunteering – Individuals in better (mental) health are more able to continue volunteering – More happy/satisfied individuals are more likely to help others (and be helped in return) September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 14 Development of generalized social trust (‘most people can be trusted’) 3.5 3.4 3.3 never quit 3.2 joined sustained 3.1 3 2.9 2002 2004 2006 Bekkers, R. (2012). ‘Trust and Volunteering: Selection or Causation? Evidence From a 4 Year Panel Study’. Political Behaviour, 32 (2): 225-247. DOI 10.1007/s11109-011-9165-x. (open access) September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim Source: GINPS 15 How to get this published… • At APSR, you can suggest reviewers. I suggested a protagonist and an antagonist. • The protagonist googled me, and sent me a (very positive) review by email. • The antagonist said the English language required editing work, asked *basic* questions about the fixed effects model results, and complained that concepts were used inconsistently. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 16 Reminder September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 17 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 18 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 19 Further evidence: volunteering and charitable confidence in 2006 Bekkers, R. & Bowman, W. (2009). The Relationship Between Confidence and Charitable Organizations and Volunteering Revisited. Nonprofit & Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 38: 884-897. Source: GINPS September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 20 Selection based on… 0.4 0.3 no controls 0.2 (p < .05) 0.1 0 sustained started quit -0.1 trust and altruistic values base line score on confidence (2004) demographics (p < .05) -0.2 Bekkers, R. & Bowman, W. (2009). The Relationship Between Confidence and Charitable Organizations and Volunteering Revisited. Nonprofit & Voluntary Sector Quarterly, 38: 884-897. -0.3 September 17, 2013 Source: GINPS MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 21 The importance of replication • Could the result be particular to the Netherlands? • Or to a selective sample of online panel survey respondents? • Perhaps volunteering doen’t produce trust, but other forms of participation do? • Let’s examine other countries, other forms of participation, other survey modes. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 22 New data & additional models • Main source: Swiss Household Panel • Additionally: BHPS, LISS, SHARE, GINPS Hilda • Fixed effects regression • Change score models – Two-wave transitions • Enter / start ( 0 1 ) vs. Stay uninvolved ( 0 0 ) • Exit / quit ( 1 0 ) vs. Stay involved (1 1) September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 23 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 24 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 25 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 26 Adequate Testing, Please! • Cross-sectional data are useless here • We need longitudinal data to disentangle causes and consequences of voluntary participation • We should look at how people change over time when they have started and quit volunteering • Halaby (2004, Annual Review of Sociology): controlling for Yt-1 is not enough • Use fixed effects regression models, eliminating variance between individuals • XT in STATA September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 27 Changes in Trust - Switzerland September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 28 Changes in Trust – UK (BHPS) September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 29 Changes in Trust – AU & NL September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 30 September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 31 Conclusions • The relationship between participation and trust mainly reflects between-person variance. • Within-person changes in trust are small and not systematically related to changes in participation. • Prolonged participation seems to encourage trust but that change disappears over time. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 32 Remaining questions • What makes people trusting of others? We still don’t know. • There is a genetic basis for trust. • As social scientists we should ask: which environmental influences change trust? • Experiences with strangers or friends? • Life events such as completing education, marriage, victimization, divorce? September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 33 How to get this published… • At AJPS, you cannot suggest reviewers. • Editors and reviewers dislike replications: ‘there is nothing new here’. • Social Networks ‘liked the paper’ but did not want to publish because ‘it is not about social networks’. • Political Psychology accepted the paper with minimal revisions. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 34 Reminder September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 35 Implications • The methods and data used here can be used to test other ‘benefits’ of civic engagement, such as higher subjective well being, better health, lower depression and mortality. • These ‘benefits’ will be quantified in a new FP7 project called ‘ITSSOIN’. • Does volunteering make you happy, bring you a job, increase networks? September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 36 Further lessons Learn. Be fair. Replicate. Don’t give up. Test adequately. Spread the word. September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 37 Thanks, says • • • • René Bekkers, r.bekkers@vu.nl Blog: renebekkers.wordpress.com Twitter: @renebekkers ‘Giving in the Netherlands’, Center for Philanthropic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, VU University Amsterdam: www.geveninnederland.nl September 17, 2013 MZES-A Colloquium, Mannheim 38