The European Union’s involvement in
protracted conflicts in the post-Soviet space
Marco Siddi
EXACT seminar, FIIA, 7 September 2011
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Protracted conflicts in the EU’s neighbourhood
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA, 7 September 2011
4 protracted conflicts
• Abkhazia, South Ossetia, Nagorno-Karabakh,
Transnistria
• De facto states: sovereignty, no international
recognition
• ‘Parent states’ and ‘patron states’
• Start: collapse of the Soviet Union (1988-1992)
• Ethnic conflicts, except Transnistria
• Current state
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Abkhazia and South Ossetia
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Nagorno-Karabakh
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Transnistria
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Geopolitical context
• Russia:
post-Soviet space/limit Western influence
control of Black Sea
security dilemma in the Caucasus
• EU:
energy security
stability and security in the neighbourhood
Relevance of Kosovo precedent
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
EU’s involvement
•
•
•
•
1998-9: bilateral PCAs
2003-5: EUSRs for South Caucasus and Moldova
2004-6: ENP and bilateral Action Plans
Civilian missions: EUBAM Moldova (2005), EUMM
Georgia (2008)
• Mediation in August 2008 crisis, co-chair of Geneva
talks
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
The EU in Georgia
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
The EU in Moldova
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
EU’s involvement: problems
• Low profile, no coherent strategy (i.e. vis-à-vis
Armenia and Azerbaijan)
• ENP review: no news
• Current restructuring: EUSRs
• No military/economic access to de facto states
• Out of OSCE Minsk Group on N-K, only
observer in 5+2 format on Transnistria
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Conclusion
• The EU plays a marginal role
• EU « reactive » rather than « proactive » (i.e.
no peace plan proposal)
• Shortcomings of inflexible non-recognition
policy
• Actors: EU or member states?
• Lack of a coherent strategy – no change in the
foreseeable future
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011
Thanks very much
for your attention!
Marco Siddi EXACT seminar at FIIA 7 September 2011