House Price Developments in Europe
Peter Parlasca FRICS
19th European Real Estate Society
Conference
Edinburgh, 13th-16 June 2012
14 June 2012
Peter Parlasca FRICS 19th ERES Conference
Outline
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14 June 2012
Background
Legal Framework
Macroeconomic surveillance
Scoreboard Indicators
Data sources
On-going issues
Scoreboard website
House Price Indices (HPI) annual
Experimental Statistics quarterly
Peter Parlasca FRICS: House Price Developments in Europe
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Background
 The financial crisis, the economic crises, and the
sovereign debt crisis that swept over Europe in 2008
and the following years lead to a number of new EU
Policy initiatives:
– Van Rompuy Task Force report on Strengthening
economic governance in the EU (21 October 2010)
– Commission proposal of 29 September 2010 on an
Enhanced Economic Policy Coordination
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Legal Framework
 Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure legal framework
published in November 2011 - “Six Pack”
– Regulation (EU) No 1176/2011 of the European Parliament and
of the Council on the prevention and correction of
macroeconomic imbalances
– Regulation (EU) No 1174/2011 of the European Parliament and
of the Council on enforcement measures to correct excessive
macroeconomic imbalances in the euro area
 The role of Eurostat: Council Conclusions of 8 November
2011
– The Council invites the Commission (Eurostat) to take all
necessary initiatives to assure a reliable procedure for the
compilation of these statistics as well as a continuous
improvement of the underlying statistical information
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Macroeconomic surveillance (1)
 Commission procedure aiming to the identification of
emerging or persistent macroeconomic imbalances at
an early stage
 Based on a scoreboard consisting of a small number of
relevant macroeconomic and macro-financial indicators
 Compiled according to the principles of the European
Statistics Code of Practice of the European Statistical
System
 Combined with thresholds defined by the Commission
 Annual exercise: results published in the Alert Mechanism
Report
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Macroeconomic surveillance (2)
 MIP scoreboard indicators should not be regarded as
either policy targets or policy instruments
 their interpretation should be supplemented by
economic judgment and country-specific expertise
 The composition of the MIP scoreboard indicators may
evolve over time
 First Alert Mechanism Report published on 14th
February
 Together with Eurostat news release:
Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure Scoreboard - Eurostat indicators
to support the detection of macroeconomic imbalances
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Macroeconomic surveillance (3)
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Imbalance indicators
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public indebtedness
private indebtedness
asset market developments: housing
evolution of private sector credit flow
evolution of unemployment
evolution of current account
net investment positions
real effective exchange rates
share of world exports
nominal unit labour cost
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Scoreboard indicators
14 June 2012
Current account balance
% of GDP- 3 year avg
Net international investment position
% of GDP
Real effective exchange rate
3 year % change
Share of world exports
5 year % change
Nominal unit labour cost index
3 year % change
House prices - deflated
1 year % change
Private credit flow
% of GDP
Private debt
% of GDP
General government gross debt (EDP)
% of GDP
Unemployment rate
3 year avg
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Data sources for House Price Indices
 Eurostat is the main provider receiving data from
National Statistical Institutes (NSIs)
 The European Central Bank complements data based
on contributions of the National Central Banks (NCBs)
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Ongoing issues
 House prices - legislation
– Adoption of the regulation on the regular compilation of
harmonised data
 House prices - coverage
– Increasing number of EU Member States covered by the
experimental house price statistics
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The scoreboard website
 Dedicated section of the Eurostat website:
scoreboard website
 Quarterly and additional data easily accessible in the same
page
 Data up-to-date
 Data available for all member states
 Users can also find metadata in the standard ESMS format
 And, for each indicator, a direct link to a table containing
longer time series
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House Price Indices (HPI) annual change
 Hand out
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House Price Indices (HPI) annual
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Experimental House Price Indices quarterly
Weblink:
 http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/portal/page/portal/hicp/
methodology/owner_occupied_housing_hpi/experimenta
l_house_price_indices
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Contact Details
Peter Parlasca FRICS
European Commission EUROSTAT
5, rue Alphonse Weicker
L-2721 Luxembourg
Tel :
(+352)4301-33101
E-Mail:
Peter.Parlasca@ec.europa.eu
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