2014 Manning Barometer
Setbacks and Opportunities
Methodology
• A total of 1,ooo on-line interviews were conducted with
adult Canadians along with an oversample of 500 selfdefined Conservatives. The interviews were conducted
between December 16th to 18th, 2013. The margin of error
for a representative sample of this size is 3.1 percentage
points within a 95% confidence interval.
• The margin of error is greater when looking at subsegments of the population Results reported in this
presentation have a maximum margin of error of 4.9
percentage points within a 95% confidence interval.
• Detailed findings can be found on the Manning Centre
website.
Setbacks
Political
Ideology
52%
1Extreme
left
12%
17%
13%
10%
5%
3% 4%
2
2014
47%
14%
12%
2% 2%
2013
3
4
5
3%
6
1% 1%
7Extreme
right
Don't
know
Political Ideology
4.5
4.2
4.0
4.0
4.1
4.0
3.9
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Political Ideology
Atlantic:
2012: 4.2
2013: 4.0
2013: 3.9
BC:
2012: 4.2
2013: 4.0
2014: 3.8
Prairies:
2012: 4.3
2013: 4.2
2014: 4.1
Ontario:
2012: 4.1
2013: 4.0
2014: 3.9
Quebec:
2012: 3.9
2013: 3.9
2013: 3.9
Party Identification
In general terms, which of the following party
affiliations do you most closely identify with?
31%
26%
18%
Liberal
Cons.
NDP
9%
6%
5%
Green
None
Don't
know
Regional Conservative ID
Atlantic:
2012: 26%
2013: 18%
2014: 25%
BC:
2012: 33%
2013: 25%
2014: 20%
Prairies:
2012: 40%
2013: 43%
2014: 48%
Ontario:
2012: 35%
2013: 24%
2014: 25%
Quebec:
2012: 12%
2013: 13%
2014: 16%
Economy as Dominant Concern
14%
11%
11%
5%
5%
5%
5%
Perceived Ability to Deal With Most
Important Issue (Economy)
5.52
5.36
4.59
2.67
On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent
Perceived Ability to Deal With Most
Important Issue (Health Care)
5.22
4.89
4.60
2.42
On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent
Perceived Ability to Deal With Most
Important Issue (Unemployment)
5.72
5.72
5.17
3.74
On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent
Perceived Ability to Deal With Emerging
Issue (Poverty and Environment)
5.61
5.60
4.76
3.30
On a 0-10 scale where 0 is poor and 10 is excellent
Canada’s Preparedness to Deal with
Upcoming challenges in...
Very Prepared
Somewhat Prepared
24%
22%
20%
2%
3%
3%
Economy
Social Issues
Democratic
Institutions
Opportunities:
Clear Conservative
Policy Directions
Direction of the country
1%
Current CPC
support : 29%
48%
51%
Right direction
Wrong direction
DK
Right/Wrong Direction
Regional Differences Atlantic:
Right : 44%
Wrong: 35%
BC:
Right : 32%
Wrong: 68% Prairies:
Right : 60%
Wrong: 40%
Ontario:
Right : 49%
Wrong: 51%
Quebec:
Right : 49%
Wrong: 49%
Direction of the country (All Canada)
Economy
49
%
51
%
Social
Policies
41
%
59
%
Moral and
Ethical Issues
38
%
61
%
Democratic
Processes
and
Institutions
55
%
44
%
Direction of the country (Conservatives)
Economy
Moral and
Ethical Issues
Economy
41
%
39
%
59
%
38
%
61
%
Social
Policies
51
%
49
%
Democratic
Processes
and
Institutions
48
%
52
%
62
%
In their own words
Next steps for democracy
In their own words
Next steps for the economy
In their own words
Next steps for social policy
In their own words
Next steps for society
Canadian Consensus
• 93% of Canadians support enhancing the
powers of elections Canada to investigate
electoral wrongdoings
• 93% support full disclosure of how public
funds are spent
• 92% want to make Party Leaders more
accountable to their respective caucus
Canadian Consensus
• 91% want to develop renewable energy
• 89% support reforming campaign financing
laws to prohibit unions and companies from
providing loans to parties and candidates
• 89% want to strengthen the role of caucus in
the House of Commons
• 84% of Canadians support expanding trade
with other countries
Conservative Agenda and Public Agenda
HIGH PUBLIC, LOW CONS.
Better balance between energy
development and environment
•
•
The environment
•
Health Care
•
General
public
agenda
HIGH PUBLIC, HIGH CONS.
LOW PUBLIC, LOW CONS.
Investing in
renewable energy
•
Accountability
•
Settling
aboriginal land
claims
•
Tolerance
•
•
Full disclosure of
spending of
public funds
Providing well
paid jobs to
young Canadians
•
Dealing with
euthanasia
•
Aging population
•
•
Jobs & economy
Skills training for
older workers
•
Reform or
abolish Senate
•
Expanding
international
trade
LOW PUBLIC, HIGH CONS.
•
Legalize marijuana
•
Reducing the cost of doing business
•
Abortion
•
Limiting immigration
•
Extending working lives of Canadians
beyond 65
•
Creating high quality jobs in energy
sector
•
Attracting highly skilled foreign workers
Conservative Supporters Agenda
Concluding Remarks
Winning Back “The 16%”
•
Men
•
Between the age of 46 and 64
•
In Ontario
•
University Education
Winning Back “The 16%”
• Health Care
• Lower Taxes
• Aging Population
• Accountability
• Full Disclosure of Spending of
Public Funds
NEXT STEPS: Policy priorities
HIGH PUBLIC SUPPORT AND HIGH CONSERVATIVE SUPPORT
• Investing in renewable energy
• Settling aboriginal land
claims
• Full disclosure of spending of
public funds
• Aging population
• Jobs & economy
• Reform or abolish Senate
• Accountability
• Tolerance
• Providing well paid jobs to
young Canadians
• Dealing with euthanasia
• Skills training for older
workers
• Expanding international
trade
Conservative Intellectual Capital
Party Identification Tracking:
A Cautionary Tale
LIB
CONS
26.4%
27.8%
26.0%
31.0%
26.0%
18.0%
NDP
Liberals
Conservatives
NDP