Refining a
Theory of Change
Barbara Reed & Dan Houston
November 2014
1
Session Objectives:
By the end of the sessions, participants will
have validated and refined the project’s Theory
of Change (ToC)’s Purpose Level diagrams.
2
Elements of a ToC: Diagrams
Project Level Goal Diagram
•
•
•
Project Level Goal
Pathways of change that include all outcomes down to the
immediate outcome level
Outcomes that are critical to achieve the goal but will be produced
by other actors
Purpose Level Outcome Diagrams
•
•
•
•
Purpose Level Outcome
Pathways of change that include all outcomes and outputs
Outcomes that are critical to achieve the goal but will be produced
by other actors
Assumptions
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Part 1: Validating and Refining the Goal
Program Goal: To reduce chronic malnutrition and food
insecurity and build resilience among vulnerable
populations in the districts of …...

What is the evidence supports the need for the goal?

Does the goal have any of the following logic pitfalls?


Unclear wording

Causality vs. Definition

Two levels in one outcome
How will the goal be measured?
4
Part 2: Validating and Refining the Outcomes
Step 1:

Based on evidence and your problem analysis;
validate, refine and identify the outcomes that
are necessary for the higher level outcome to be
achieved

Review the higher level outcome and ask “how” the higher result
will be achieved. Keep going until all of the outcomes that are
necessary and sufficient to achieve the higher level outcome
have been identified.
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Part 2: Validating and Refining the Outcomes
Step 2:

Confirm and refine how the project outcomes
contribute to the higher level outcome

Is the achievement of the project’s outcomes alone
sufficient to achieve the higher level outcome?

How will other actors contribute to these outcomes?

If gaps remain, how will the necessary outcomes be
achieved?

Do you have the necessary and sufficient resources in order
to achieve the outcome?
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Part 2: Validating and Refining the Outcomes
Step 3:

Ensure that there are the no logic pitfalls:


Unclear wording
Not using “if…then” logic (asking “how” going
down and why going up the pathways)

Causality vs. Definition

Duplication of outcomes at different levels

Two levels in one outcome

Using “capacity building” in result

Not integrating gender and environment into logic 7
Part 2: Validating and Refining the Outcomes
Step 4:

Validate, refine and measure the assumptions:


Rationales: Description of why the outcome is necessary for the
achievement of the higher level outcome.

What is the evidence that supports the validity of the assumption?

What will happen if the assumptions fail?

How can the project measure the assumptions?
Global assumptions: The contextual or environmental conditions
that are out of the control of the project but which must exist for
the outcome to produce the link to the higher level outcome.

What is the evidence that supports the validity of the assumption?

What will happen if the assumptions fail?

How can the project measure the assumptions?
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Part 2: Validating and Refining the Outcomes
Step 5:

Identify how the project will measure the
outcome (indicators):

Are there FFP or other standard indicators that would
apply?

Is/Are the indicator(s) SMART?

Specific

Measurable

Achievable

Relevant

Timely
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Sample Process Tracking Form
Outcome /
Output
Rationale
(why needed
to reach
higher
outcome) w/
evidence
Assumption
Indicators
(Contextual or
Environment
Preconditions)
w/ evidence
Increased
Access to
Irrigation
Irrigation
facilitated
multiple
cropping
seasons Final
Evaluation
Cyclones will
not damage the
irrigation
schemes more
than once
during the
course of the
project – NOAA
Notes/Follow
-up
Number of
hectares
under
improved
technologies
or
management
practices as
a result of
USG (FFP)
assistance
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Part 3: Organize and Develop the Purpose
Level Diagram


Identify outcomes or outputs that lead to multiple
outcomes and organize accordingly
Use color, shapes, fonts to clearly distinguish:






Purposes
Outcomes and pathways (arrows) addressed by the
project
Outcomes and pathways addressed only by other
actors
Project outputs
Other actors’ outputs
Assumptions or associated references*
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Part 4: Organize and Develop the Project
Level Diagram


Identify outcomes that lead to multiple outcomes
and organize accordingly
Use color, shapes, fonts to clearly distinguish:







Goal
Purposes
Outcomes and pathways (arrows) addressed by the
project
Outcomes and pathways addressed only by other
actors
Project outputs
Other actors’ outputs
Assumptions or associated references*
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Part 5: Organize and Develop the Project
Level Diagram


Identify outcomes that lead to multiple outcomes
across different purposes & organize accordingly
Use color, shapes, fonts to clearly distinguish:







Goal
Purposes
Outcomes and pathways (arrows) addressed by the
project
Outcomes and pathways addressed only by other
actors
Project outputs
Other actors’ outputs
Assumptions or associated references*
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Part 6: Write the narrative




Summarize the major elements of the ToC
Describe and provide evidence on how the
problem analysis, assumptions, rationales
relate to the long-term goal, outcomes
(especially for non-project implementers),
pathways and interventions, on what is not
readily absorbed from the diagram
Describe collaboration with other actors,
including how their necessary outputs will be
monitored
Assess the risks that assumptions may fail
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