Lesson Plan - APP Probability
Objectives
Pupils to self assess their understanding of probability. Teacher to carry out an APP assessment
using probing questions.
Keywords :Outcome, Event, Sample Space Diagram
Mental and Oral Starter
Pupils to revisit the never heard the word grid to check their understanding of the key words.
Main
Explain that the purpose of this lesson is to assess their understanding so although they can ask a
friend for help they must be honest when they come to self assess at the end of the lesson.
Explain that if they find their chosen challenge either too hard or too easy they should swap for a
different challenge. Ensure that pupils are aware that they only have this lesson to complete their
chosen challenge so they must stay on task and work to the best of their ability to be able to
accurately assess themselves.
Plenary
Hand out the pink APP sheets. Ask pupils to look at their assessment sheet and colour in all the
levels they feel that can achieve independently. Tell pupils that they must complete the ‘Tips /
Hints’ box by explaining in their own words the maths they did today. Ask them to also describe
any help that they had. Explain to pupils that you will be marking their work and completing the
‘my teacher’s’ boxes. Remind students that next lesson for the starter activity they must come in
and look for the question you have set and respond either by answering it or by explaining why the
question is too hard for them to answer.
Probing Questions
Level 5
Find and justify probabilities based on equally
likely outcomes in simple contexts. For
example:
The letters of the word REINDEER are
written on 8 cards, and a card is chosen at
random. What is the probability that the
chosen letter is an E?
On a fair die what is the probability of rolling
a prime number?
Can you give me an example of what is meant by ‘equally likely
outcomes’?
Level 6
How do you go about identifying all the mutually exclusive
outcomes for an experiment?
Use a sample space diagram to show all
outcomes when two dice are thrown together,
and the scores added.
What strategies do you use to make sure you have found all
possible mutually exclusive outcomes for two successive events,
One red and one white dice are both numbered for example rolling two dice?
1 to 6. Both dice are thrown and the scores
added. Use a sample space to show all possible How do you know you have recorded all the possible outcomes?
outcomes.
Level 7
What might be different about using theoretical probability to
Recognise that repeated trials result in
find the probability of obtaining a 6 when you roll a dice, and
experimental probability tending to a limit, and using experimental probability for the same purpose?
that this limit may be the only way to estimate
probability. Describe situations where the use True or false
of experimental data to estimate a probability Experimental probability is more reliable than theoretical
would be necessary.
probability;
Experimental probability gets closer to the true probability as
more trials are carried out;
Relative frequency finds the true probability.
LO To assess your Understanding
Reflect, Assess, Explain, Communicate
RAG
13-Apr-15
Starter Activity
Look back at the Heard the Word Grid that you
completed at the start of the unit. Are there any
words that you understand now and can describe
which you couldn’t before?
LO To assess your Understanding
Reflect, Assess, Explain, Communicate
RAG
13-Apr-15
In today’s lesson you will be
reflecting upon what you have
learnt in the last few maths
lessons.
You will be completing a challenge. You are allowed
to look back in your book but you should be working
independently..
Key Words
Event
Outcome
Random
Biased /
Unbiased
Theoretical
Probability
Experimental
Probability
Mutually
exclusive
Never heard
before?
Heard of but not
sure what it
means?
Know what it means and can explain it in context
Jot down your ideas here...
Key Words
Event
Outcome
Random
Biased /
Unbiased
Theoretical
Probability
Experimental
Probability
Mutually
exclusive
Never heard
before?
Heard of but not
sure what it
means?
Know what it means and can explain it in context
Jot down your ideas here...
Additional Task
You could add a new task for level 3 where
pupils can match pre coloured spinners to
statements.
Which is certain
Which is impossible,
Which is an even chance….etc
You have been given 4 colours;
Red, Blue, Green and yellow
Spinner 1 Yellows must be
most likely to win
Spinner 22 colours are
equally likely to
win
Spinner 3Blues are least
likely to win
Spinner 4 Reds can never
win
You have been given 4 colours;
Red, Blue, Green and yellow
Spinner 1 Yellows must be
most likely to win
Spinner 22 colours are
equally likely to
win
Spinner 3Blues are least
likely to win
Spinner 4 Reds can never
win
Level 4
Challenge
Using at least 3 colours, colour the spinners so that the statements in the table are true.
Then move to level 5. If you are not ready to move to level 5 then
1.) Ask your teacher for some more blank spinners and colour them differently so that the
statements are still true?
2.) Make up some statements of your own and colour the spinners to make the
statements true.
Level 5
Challenge
After you have coloured in the spinners describe the probability of getting each colour as
a fraction.
For example - Spinner 1
(P) Red =
(P) Blue =
(P) Green =
(P) Yellow =
Level 6
Challenge
Draw a sample space diagram to show all the possible outcomes when spinners 1 and 2
are spun together. What is the probability of :a) getting two colours the same
b) getting at least one blue
c) getting a blue and a yellow
d) not getting a red
Level 7
Challenge
Answer the following questions:What might be different about using theoretical probability to find the probability of
obtaining a 6 when you roll a dice, and using experimental probability for the same
purpose?
True or false
Experimental probability is more reliable than theoretical probability?
Experimental probability gets closer to the true probability as more trials are carried out?
Blank Spinners
To be a better learner I could................
Less Helpful
More Helpful
Work Faster / do more
Be neater
Try the harder ones
Stay on task.
Clearly show my working out.
Put my hand up to ask a question
when I don’t understand.
Talk less
Make sure that when I am talking
to the people on my table, I am
talking about the Maths.
Listen more when the teacher is
talking.
Contribute answers and
questions during the explanation
part of the lesson.
level
7
Probability Skills
I understand the difference
between experimental and
theoretical probability. I can use
relative frequency as an estimate
and to compare the outcomes of
experiments.
6
I can complete a sample space
diagram and use it to calculate
probabilities.
5
I can describe the probability of an
event happening using a fraction,
decimal or percentage.
4
I can use I the language of
probability to describe the
probability of an event occurring.
3
I can use the probability words
impossible, certain and even
chance to describe the probability
of an event occurring.
Top Tips / Hints ......
My teachers comment ......
My teachers question is ......
My answer is ......
Plenary
Complete the Pink Assessment Sheet.
Fold it in half and glue it into your book.
Answer the question that you have been
set.