THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
Assist. Prof. Dr. Ozan Örmeci
http://www.ozanormeci.com.tr
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
International trade is the exchange of capital, goods,
and services across international borders or territories. In most
countries, such trade represents a significant share of gross
domestic product (GDP). While international trade has been
present throughout much of history (see Silk Road, Amber
Road), its economic, social, and political importance has been on
the rise in recent centuries.
- In recent decades, with the effect of globalization and
developing communication and transportation technologies, the
international trade increased all over the world and trading
agents have become significant international political actors.
-
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
While the rising international trade strengthens globalization,
globalization also looks for increasing international trade to
surpass national boundaries.
- For many thinkers, the management of economics has become
more important in many countries than the management of
politics in the recent years.
- The relative loss of power of the states and the capital’s search
for profitable markets and cheap labor, turned politics into
economic administration unlike what Mao’s famous dictum,
“Politics take command”.
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THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
While the supremacy of economic mentality over political
mentality create problems related to social justice, in some cases
in could help political problems to be resolved due to increasing
economic integration on problematic sides which could create
“win-win” situations.
- A win-win game is a game which is
designed in a way that all participants
can profit from it in one way or the other.
In conflict resolution, a win-win strategy
is a conflict resolution process that aims
to accommodate all disputants.
-
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
In International Relations, integration theories open the door
for “win-win” situations. According to Reinhard Meyers,
integration requires the emergence of common norms, values
and targets with the opposing sides. There are different theories
about integration.
1. Functionalism: As it was advocated first by David Mitrany in
“A Working Peace System” (1943), integration should start from
economics since creating “win-win” situation is much more
difficult in politics. However, if economic integration is achieved
successfully, then political integration can also be realized.
European Union can be analyzed as a functionalist project that
started with European Coal and Steel Community (ECSC).
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THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
2. Transactionalism: Transactionalism was developed by Karl
Deutsch in the 1950s. Deutsch believed that integration could be
achieved best by managing communication on different sides by
establishing a common language and culture. This will lead to
political and economic integration in the subsequent process.
3. Intergovernmentalism: Developed by Andrew Moravcsik,
Intergovernmentalism is based on the good governance of
political and economic integration by governments on the both
sides. Without effective political governance, Moravscik thought
integration will not be successful. This will require negotiations
but also at the same time consensus.
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
4. Supranationalism: Supranationalism claims that integration will
be successful only if supranational actors are involved. This
could take place in 2 different ways. One is called
“institutionalism” and is based on the creation of supranational
actors having more power than national actors. The other way is
called “socialization” and is based on the changing identities and
the emergence of new supranational identities during the
integration process. The new “European” identity that was
created during EU integration process over the national
identities, can be used as an example here. According to Ernst
Haas, this will take place due to “spill over” effects that will
follow economic integration.
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
CYPRUS DISPUTE AND EAST MEDITERRNEAN
ENERGY RESOURCES AS A CASE STUDY
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
The discovery of natural gas resources in the Eastern
Mediterranean, could be used as a leverage for the solution of
the Cyprus Dispute or Cyprus Problem.
- The drilling and the safe transportation of Cyprus natural gas
resources may direct two neighboring political entities; TRNC
and Cyprus Republic to work together and reach a consensus for
the settlement.
- This cooperation may be strengthened since Israel’s newly
discovered natural gas resources may also be transported from
the same pipeline route.
-
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
Since European countries are in the search of new and cheaper
energy resources as well as alternatives to Russian natural gas
and an American company Noble Energy is the principal actor
in this process, this new process will have the support of major
international actors such as USA and EU.
- Turkey and Greece, two guarantor states for the 1960 Republic,
also seem supportive of this process where another guarantor
the U.K. and natural gas market leader Russian Federation do
not seem disturbed.
- These are all signs of potential success for economic integration
that could be followed by political integration.
-
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
“First thing first”
- According to integration theories that I summarized
(Functionalist paradigm mainly and also Supranationalism),
economic integration should take place first in order to
encourage and facilitate political integration later.
- A hasty political integration that is not backed up concrete and
guaranteed economic interests, could be problematic and even
spoil further economic and political integration.
- Thus, it might be better to solve energy problem first and then
to focus on political integration.
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
“Think Big”: Mediterranean Union
- With the recent discoveries in Israel and Crete in addition to
potential new energy resources in the region, it might be also
possible to look to “big picture” and bring into agenda a larger
Mediterranean Union that was advocated by former French
President Nicolas Sarkozy in the past.
- Non-EU countries such as Turkey, Israel, Lebanon, Tunisia,
Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Syria and Palestine can work on a
greater project with the help of Mediterranean EU countries
such as Greece, Cyprus Republic, Italy, France and Spain
together.
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
“Think Big”: Mediterranean Union
THE ROLE OF TRADE IN
FOREIGN POLICY: CYPRUS EXAMPLE
“Think Big”: Mediterranean Union
- But for sure, this will need visionary leaders in all major
countries in the Mediterranean and also leader countries to
assume such role. Israel, France, Turkey and Greece could be the
leading countries of such a new geopolitical design.
- Main problems for such a design for the moment are; Syrian
civil war, instabilities in Libya and Egypt, Arab-Israeli conflict,
Turkish-Israeli tension, Turkish-Greek disagreement and the
Cyprus Dispute.