An eLearning Weather
Forecasting Contest
David M. Schultz
Centre for Atmospheric Science, School of Earth, Atmosphere and
Environmental Science, University of Manchester
Stuart Anderson and Ryo Seo-Zindy
eLearning Team, Faculty of Engineering and Physical Sciences,
University of Manchester
The class
EART 30551: Meteorology
40 Third-Year Environmental Science/Studies
students
No previous experience with meteorology
The goal is to get the students to…
see the practical application of the lecture
material
look at the weather outside of the lecture
material
engage their critical thinking skills (i.e., the
answer is not in the back of the book)
Each week students must forecast:
next day (Sat midnight to Sun midnight)
official observing station at Woodford (outside of
Manchester)
1. high temperature (T, whole °C)
2. probability of precipitation: 0, 10, 20, …, 100%
(P: 0, 1, 2, …, 10)
Scoring system
Score = |Tobs – Tforecast| x 8 + (Pobs – Pforecast)^2
Pobs = 0, if no precipitation
Pobs = 5, if a trace
Pobs = 10, if measurable precipitation (>=0.2 mm)
Missed forecasts receive 150 points
Rules of the contest
Forecasts are due by 2300 Friday night
Participation is mandatory (10% of final mark)
Quality of forecasts is not assessed
Best scores receive bonus marks at the end of the semester
Best student forecaster receives 8 bonus marks, followed by
6, 4, and 2 marks
Little relationship
between MetCast
score and average
score of five quizzes
Indicates that the
contest assesses
different skills than
the quizzes
Best
Worst
Little relationship
between MetCast
score and average
score of five quizzes
Indicates that the
contest assesses
different skills than
the quizzes
Best
Worst
Allows students to
excel in different ways
What the students thought: Online Survey
Did forecasting contest help you understand
the course material better?
YES: 18
NO: 11
Did your forecasts improve over the ten
weeks?
YES: 16
NO: 13
What the students thought: Written Survey
What the students thought: Written Survey
What the students thought: Written Survey
Improvements for next year
Better integration of forecast contest into
weather discussions
Postmordem discussion of last week’s
weather forecast to help improvement
Less harsh penalty for missed forecast
Dissemination of results
Presentation submissions to upcoming
GEES, Royal Meteorological Society, and
National Centre for Atmospheric Science
conferences
Submission to Journal of Geoscience
Education after next years’ results