A new approach to local economic
growth
Where have we been?
Where are we going?
Andrew Carter
Centre for Cities
2nd December
• The challenges facing UK cities over the next decade
• Key lessons on the nature of private sector jobs growth
• Why local enterprise partnerships are important and what they should do
• Where next following the Local Growth White Paper?
Need different sources of job growth over the next decade
compared to the last
Average net fall in manufacturing employment
among English cities between 1998 and 2008 was
33%.
That’s obviously not going to be the case over the next
decade
Office for Budget Responsibility estimates
600,000 or 490,000 or 330,000 jobs could go from
the public sector by 2015/16.
Public sector cuts will hit every city – but
vulnerability varies
… this makes private sector job creation ever more
pressing
London has been the top performer on private sector jobs
growth in recent decades
38% of net additional
private sector jobs
between 1998 and 2008.
. . . But not only the South
Top 10 performers on private sector
jobs growth in North & Midlands
Most Core Cities have been doing
fairly well in terms of total jobs added
and percentage growth.
Bottom 10 performers on private sector
jobs growth in North & Midlands
Places like Stoke
and Burnley still
struggling with
industrial decline.
Birmingham and Nottingham
the exceptions among Core
Cities – though there’s a
question mark about the
Nottingham data.
Variable performance on
unemployment
Populations normally respond to changing economic
opportunities
Manufacturing is unlikely to be a major source of jobs
growth
Niche sectors are important but not the only answer
Need to pay more attention to all firms
LEPs – the latest institutional approach
• 24 local enterprise partnerships approved
• Most major cities covered
• London partnerships could follow
Natural economic areas are important
The strength of Manchester as an
economic centre generates labour market
relationships with neighbouring areas:
Overall Commuting Patterns
(ward level)
Affects housing and business choices in the city
region
Variable Size, Scale and
Complexity
“Who pays should benefit, who benefits should
pay”
Some LEPs are better positioned for growth than others
High skills means high wages
High wages in the private sector except
Oxford
What should LEPs focus on?
RGF is not the main event . . .
What should LEPs focus on?
Local Growth – what did the White Paper tell us?
• Not “everywhere will, or will want to, become an economic powerhouse”
• There will be no additional funding for partnerships
• Business rates could be localised as a growth incentive
• No real role for partnerships in skills policy
• Confirmed the creation of new ‘Growth Hubs’
And what didn’t it resolve?
1.
2.
3.
4.
So will local enterprise partnerships work?
• Rebalancing the economy geographically will not be an easy task - growth will continue to be
uneven
• Success not clearly defined – so can they ‘not work’?
• Local enterprise partnerships should focus on improving the business environment – getting the
basics right
• Central government should re-examine funding and powers
A new approach to local economic
growth
Where have we been?
Where are we going?
Andrew Carter
Centre for Cities
a.carter@centreforcities.org
020 7803 4300