Changes to the Youth
reoffending Measure
Presentation for YOTs to stakeholders and
management boards –
17th March 2011
YJB position statement
The YJB supports the concept of the new measure and the advantages
it presents for aligning the measurement in various parts of the Criminal
Justice System and the streamlining of the work of YOTs. The YJB will
continue to work with YOTs and the MoJ to handle the transition to the
new measure and to address the needs of practitioners from the new
measure.
In order to support the transition to the new measure the YJB and MoJ
have set up a small working group to work out some of the
methodological and technical details of the new measure. This group
will consist of YOTs and representatives from the YJB and MoJ.
Data on the old measure will continue to be collected via the YJMIS
web forms until a full dataset for the 2010 cohort is available.
Contents
1.
The case for change
2.
Details of the new measure
3.
Implications for YOT
4.
Timetable for publications
Part 1
The case for change
The case for change
At present, there are 6 measures of reoffending, these include:
1.
national adult reoffending,
2.
local adult reoffending,
3.
national youth reoffending,
4.
local youth reoffending,
5.
Prolific and other Priority offending (PPO) and
6.
drug-misusing offending.
The case for change
These 6 measures are currently presented in five different publications
across a range of Government departments.
These measures use different methodologies which makes it hard to
understand reoffending behaviour and can lead to confusion over the
headline trends in reoffending.
The MoJ recently completed a consultation on
a proposed new measure of reoffending which reduces the 6
measures into one. The response to the consultation
was mostly positive and supportive of the proposed changes, for details
please see:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/consultations/statistics-cp171110.htm
The case for change
Having one measure of reoffending will:
 Help form a clearer picture of proven reoffending at
national and local levels;
 Allow comparisons between adult and youth data and
enable other work on transition between the youth and
adult system;
 Help us understand how the different offender groups fit
into the overall picture of reoffending;
The case for change
The measure will also provide advantages to YOTs, namely:

The new measure will take the data from the Police
National Computer (PNC) so YOTs will not be required
to send reoffending data to the YJB or to perform
checks on PNC. However, YOTs will still need capacity
to monitor reoffending performance.

Provide a ‘blank canvas’ giving all YOTs a fresh start
with the switch over to using PNC data.

Provide a level playing field, as it no longer depends
on how well a YOT records its data or if it has good
PNC links.
The case for change
Other advantages to YOTs:
 Provide more accurate data on young people
who turn 18 while they are in the cohort.
 The new measure uses a 12 month cohort
rather than a 3 month cohort, which will be
more representative.
 The measure should help YOTS be able to
scrutinise the PNC data at a local level.
Part 2
Details of the new measure
Overview of new measure
 The new measure is similar to the one used for
the youth population in National Indicator 19 so
will seem familiar to YOTs.
 A cohort of young people are tracked for a year.
 The main difference between the new measure
and the old is that the cohort will be a 12 months
cohort and not a 3 month.
Overview of new measure
 ‘Rolling cohorts’ will be used i.e. for any given quarter we
will be looking at 12 months of data. An example of how
the rolling cohort will work is available from the
informationteam@yjb.gov.uk
 Another difference between this measure and the old is
that the data will come from the PNC and not from YOTs.
Overview of new measure
 Also, the new measure is a binary measure of
reoffending (i.e. a count of the number of young people
who re-offend) rather than the current frequency
measure.
 Details of the frequency of offending will be provided (i.e.
the average number of re-offences per 100 young
people).
Who will be in the cohort?
The new measure would include all young people who:
received a reprimand or final warning;
received a court conviction (other than immediate
custody);
were released from custody, or
tested positive on a Class A drugs test on arrest;
at any time in a twelve month period.
How long will they be followed up for?
It is proposed that the new measure will count any
re-offences committed in a 12 month follow up
period, where those offences are proved by:
a court conviction;
reprimand/final warning
either in that 12 month period or in a further six
months.
Geographic breakdown
It is proposed that the results would be broken down by:
The 9 English Regions and Wales
Police Force area (Local Criminal Justice Board)
Probation Trust level (for young people under
probation supervision only)
Youth Offending Team area (for young people)
Local Authority level
Community Safety Partnership level
This would be the first time reoffending rates are available
for all Community Safety Partnerships.
Estimated impact of the proposed
changes
reoffending rates (binary) would generally be lower under the new
measure than the old measures. This is because;
 for adult offenders, the new measure includes more people who
have a low likelihood of reoffending (i.e. those adults who were
cautioned, fined and discharged are being included for the first
time).
 For the adult and youth measures, using a full year’s cohort
removes the issue of the over-sampling of prolific offenders which
occurs when a January to March cohort is used.
Why use a binary rate?
 It is proposed that the published data will focus on the binary
(yes/no) rate of reoffending. This is because;
 It is easier to explain to the public
 Ministers are interested in stopping people offending, not just
reducing the rate of offending
 There are concerns that whilst the frequency rate has fallen the
binary rate has remained stable
 The frequency data will still be available, both in the publication and
to local areas.
Part 3
Implications for YOTs
Management information for YOTs
reoffending rates on the new measure will be provided at the
national level back to 2000.
Local level breakdowns of this data will be provided back to 2005.
The local data will be broken down by age, gender, ethnicity, sentence
type, offence committed, number of previous offences, by the
same geographic breakdowns as listed above.
This data would be provided directly to YOTs. The YJB are working with
MoJ and YOTs to look at putting this information straight into the
YJMIS.
Please note that it is proposed that the new methodology will be used
for payment by results.
YOT concerns about the new measure
 YOTs have reported the following concerns about the
new measure:
 The quality of PNC data
 The difference between PNC and YOT data
 Being measured on data that they do not own and do not have
access to, especially if this is used for Payments by results
 Confusion over some of the detail of the new measure (e.g. what
is included and rolling cohorts).
 The impact of the movement of Looked After Children and other
young people who frequently move between Local Authority
areas.
 The time and effort that will be required to monitor their
performance on this new measure.
Further work planned for summer 2011
The YJB, MoJ and a group of YOTs will be working together to address
the concerns of YOTs. There are plans to further analyse the
differences between the YOT and PNC data and to ensure that YOTs
receive the data they need to enable them to monitor their
performance. The analysis will include looking at:
 17 year olds who transfer to probation and who’s reoffending is on the PNC
but not known to YOTs.
 An estimate of how much variation is due to young people who frequently
move between local authority areas.
 Analysis of why the PNC shows more offenders and re-offences
 Analysis of how much of the discrepancies between PNC and YOT are due
to timing or false names and addresses
 Information sharing
Part 4
Timetable for publications and other
information
Timescales for publications
 17th March 2011 – Youth reoffending statistics (under the old
measure) for the 2009 cohort.
 17th March 2011 – MoJ consultation response published.
 10th May 2011 – publication of the Compendium of reoffending
Statistics and Analysis. This will compare the effectiveness of
different sentences at reducing reoffending.
 26th May 2011 - The first of the new Criminal Justice System
Statistics Quarterly which will give results for FTEs and sentencing
statistics for the 12 months ending December 2010.
 27th October 2011 - the first of the new reoffending measure
statistics quarterly publications which will contain:
 reoffending for adults and juveniles for the cohort ending 31st
December 2009
 back series for historic data
 prison level reoffending rates for 2008 and 2009*
 Local authority and probation level rates for adults and youth
from 2005 to 2009
Further information
 The official MoJ response to the consultation on the re-offending
measure and improvements to Ministry of Justice statistics can be
found at:
http://www.justice.gov.uk/consultations/statistics-cp171110.htm
 A list of Frequently Asked Questions has been prepared to
accompany this presentation. This is available upon request from
informationteam@yjb.gov.uk
 An illustration of how a rolling cohort would work has been prepared
and is available upon request from informationteam@yjb.gov.uk
 For further information on the MoJ consultation please contact
statistics.enquiries@justice.gsi.gov.uk