MEASURING AGGREGATE ECONOMIC ACTIVITY National Income Accounting • Why measure? • National income accounting – A way of measuring total, or aggregate production. • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – The total value of all final goods and services produced in an economy in a one-year period. 7-2 Calculating GDP • Adding together millions of goods and services. • Adding apples and oranges – All of the quantities of goods and services produced are multiplied (weighted) by their market price per unit to determine a value measure of that good or service. • The sum of all of these values is GDP. 7-3 The Expenditure Approach • GDP is the sum of four categories of expenditures. GDP = C + I + G + (X – M) • Consumption • Investment – Includes inventories • Government Spending – Valued at cost – Excludes transfer payments • Net exports 7-4 CALCULATING GDP Suppose that consumption is $1150, investment is $400, and government purchases are $500. Exports are $100 and imports are $150. How much is Gross Domestic Product? GDP = C + I + G + (X – M) by substitution, GDP = 1150 + 400 + 500 + (100-150) GDP = $2000 7-5 GDP IN THE U.S. vs. BELGIUM GDP = C + I + G + Exports - Imports U.S. $14,000 B = 70% + 17% + 19% + 11% - 17% Belgium $365 B = 53% + 21% + 23% + 87% - 84% Flows vs. Stocks • Flows – Involves a time period – GDP is reported on an annualized basis – About $14 Trillion ($14,000,000,000,000) • Stocks – An amount at a point in time – Wealth accounts—assets minus liabilities – About $50 Trillion ($50,000,000,000,0000) 7-7 GDP Measures Final Output • Final vs. Intermediate goods and services – Final output – goods and services purchased for final use. – Intermediate products are used as an input in the production of some other product. • GDP counts only final goods and services • Counting both final and intermediate goods would result in double counting. 7-8 Two Ways of Eliminating Double Counting • Calculate only final output. – A firm would report how much it sold to consumers and how much it sold to producers (intermediate goods). • Follow the value added approach. – Value added is the increase in value that a firm contributes to a product or service. – It is calculated by subtracting intermediate goods (the cost of materials that a firm uses to produce a good or service) from the value of its sales. 7-9 Value Added Approach Participants Farmer Cone factory and ice Cream maker Middleperson Vendor Totals 7-10 Cost of Materials $ 0 Value of Sales $ 100 Value Added 100 250 150 250 400 $ 750 400 500 $1,250 150 100 $500 $ 100 What is Counted in GDP? • Not counted – Value of resold goods – Government transfer payments – Sales of stocks or bonds – Non-market transactions---e.g., work of housespouses • Counted – Value added by a used car dealer – Commissions of stock brokers 7-11 GDP and NDP • Net domestic product is GDP adjusted for depreciation – the amount of capital used up in producing that year’s GDP. NDP = C + (I – depreciation) + G + (X-M) • NDP measures output available for purchase. 7-12 GDP AND GNP • Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Total value of all final goods and services produced in country in a one-year period. • Gross National Product (GNP) – Total value of all final goods and services produce by the citizens and businesses of a country in a one- year. • When is the difference important? 7-13 The Income Approach • Aggregate income is the total income earned by citizens and businesses in a country in a year. • Aggregate income consists of: – – – – 7-14 employee compensation rent paid to households (But not to businesses) interest paid to households (But not to businesses) profits The Income Approach • United States Aggregate Income $14 Trillion Employee compensation 70% Rents 1% Interest 5% Profits 24% Income = Expenditures • Whenever a good or service is produced (output), somebody receives income for producing it. • Aggregate Income = Aggregate Production • Profit is a residual that makes income and expenditures equal. 7-16 Comparing GDP Among Countries • Per capita GDP – Used to compare relative standards of living among various countries. – Because of differences in nonmarket activities and difference in product prices, per capita GDP may be a misleading measure of living standards. • Purchasing power parity – Adjusts for relative price differences before making comparisons. 7-17 7-18 Economic Welfare Over Time • If increases in GDP are due to increases in prices, then welfare does not increase. • Changes in welfare over time are best indicated by changes in real GDP, nominal GDP adjusted for inflation. Nominal GDP Real GDP 100 GDP deflator • And % ∆ in Nominal GDP = % ∆ in Real GDP + inflation CALCULATING REAL GDP Suppose that in year 1 nominal GDP is $1200; in year 2, $1300. The GDP deflator is 110 and 115, respectively. Find the change in nominal GDP. How much of the change is due to a real increase in output and how much is due to price changes? 1300 - 1200 %nominal GDP 100 8.3% 1200 7-19 115 - 110 %price 100 4.5% 110 %nominal GDP %real GDP inflation 8.3% %real GDP 4.5% %real GDP 3.8% Limitations of National Income Accounting • GDP measures economic activity, not welfare. – GDP does not measure happiness, nor does it measure economic welfare. – Non-market activities are not included • Subcategories are often interdependent. – For example, the line between consumption and investment may be unclear. • Measurement problems exist. 7-20 Genuine Progress Indicator • The genuine progress indicator (GPI) makes a variety of adjustments to GDP to better measure the progress of society rather than just economic activity. • The GPI includes social goals such as pollution reduction, education, and health. 7-21