INFLEXION IN KERALA`S GULF CONNECTION

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INDIA

S. IRUDAYA RAJAN

HIGHLIGHTS

• • • EMIGRATION FROM AND REMITTANCES TO INDIA MIGRATION AND REMITTANCES: KERALA EXPERIENCE MACRO IMPACT

Emigration Estimates

• • • High Level Committee on Indian Diaspora in 2001: 20 million (people of Indian origin and Non-Resident Indians): 16 million Ministry of Overseas Indian Affairs (MOIA) in its first annual report, 2004-2005 states that Indian Diaspora is about 25 million.

MOIA in its latest annual report, 2012-13: 25 million in 183 countries.

Estimates of Non-Resident Indians

• • • • • • • High Level Committee, 2001 Gulf: 3.3 million Europe: 0.2 million Asia and Pacific: 0.2 million Africa: 0.08 million Central and South America: 7307 USA: 1.7 million; UK: 1.2 million; Canada: 0.9 million; South Africa 1.0 million (PIO+NRI)

Estimated Indian Migrant Stock, 2010

Destination Countries Australia Qatar Sri Lanka Kuwait Oman Canada United Kingdom Nepal Bangladesh Saudi Arabia United States of America United Arab Emirates All Other Countries Total Number 209908 250649 336352 393210 447824 516508 657792 831432 1052775 1452927 1654272 2185919 1371256 11360823

MOIA-RUIM-CDS Estimates

• • • • • • Based on our research in Kerala since 1998 Our estimate: 12 million workers 6 million in the Gulf UAE No 1, followed by Saudi Arabia What do other data sources tell us about Gulf Migration?

As per the latest MOIA annual report, 97% of the ECR passport holders left for Gulf.

Trends in Workers Emigrated from India, 1985-2012

Emigration (in million) 0,3 0,2 0,1 0 0,9 0,8 0,7 0,6 0,5 0,4

Workers Granted Emigration Clearance by Major States, 1993-2012

250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 Kerala Uttar Pradesh

Labour outflows from India by destination 1988-2012 400 000 350 000 300 000 250 000 200 000 150 000 100 000 50 000 0 Saudi Arabia UAE

Trends in Remittances : 1975-2012

80000 70000 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 0

1 0 3 2 6 5 4

Remittance flows to India as Percentage of GDP 1990- 2012

Kerala Migration Surveys

• Kerala Migration Survey 1998 • Kerala Migration Survey, 2003 • Kerala Migration Survey, 2007 • Kerala Migration Survey, 2008 • Kerala Migration Survey, 2011 www.cds.edu

3500000 3000000 2500000 2000000 1500000 1000000 500000 0 Emigrants, Return Emigrants and Non-Resident Keralites, 1998-2011

EMI REM NRK 1998 2003 2008 2011

450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0

Number of Emigrants by Districts in Kerala, 2011

Population of Kerala and Emigration by Religion, 2011 ( in percent)

Number of Kerala Emigrants in the Gulf Countries, 1998-2011

2011 2008 2003 1998 1000000 900000 800000 700000 600000 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 UAE Saudi Arabia Oman Kuwait Bahrain Qatar

Total Remittances for Kerala 1998-2013

Years Rs (Crores)

1998 13652 2003 18465 2008 2011 2013 43288 49695 60000

10000 9000 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0

Total Remittances by Districts, 2011

Macro-Economic Impact of Remittances, 1998 - 2011 Indicators

Remittances NSDP Modified NSDP Per Capita Income Modified Per Capita Income State Debt Remittances as percent of NSDP (%) Remittances as ratio of Revenue Receipt Remittances as ratio of Transfer from Centre Remittances as ratio of Government Expenditure Remittances as ratio of State Debt Remittances as ratio of Receipt from Cashew Export Remittances as ratio of Receipt from Marine Export

1998

13652 53552 67204 16062 20157 15700 25.5

1.9

6.9

2.3

0.9

10.4

16.7

2011

49695 159144 208839 52084 67994 78239 31.2

1.6

6.2

2.2

0.6

30.4

29.8

HH SC/ST Nadar Viswakarma CSI Ezhava Muslim Syrian Malabar Catholic Nair Latin Catholic Jacobite Syrian Marthoma Syrian Orthodox Syrian Malankara Syrian Catholic Brahmin

Percent of Households with Emigrant and possession of Very Good or Luxurious houses

EMI Nadar SC/ST Viswakarma Ezhava Muslim Nair Orthodox Syrian Brahmin Marthoma Syrian Latin Catholic CSI Jacobite Syrian Syrian Malabar Catholic Malankara Syrian Catholic

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0 70,0 80,0 90,0

0,0 10,0 20,0 30,0 40,0 50,0 60,0

Membership Annual Savings and Investment Annual Savings Annual Investments

HHs with No Emigrants 16244 60304 HHs With Emigrants Total 32809 21991 139919 91187

Monthly Food and Non Food expenses Membership FOOD Non Food Expenses

HHs with No Emigrants HHs With Emigrants Total 2850 3256 2994 3144 4425 3597 5994 7681 6591

Annual Health and Education Expenses Membership Annual Medical Expenses Annual Education Expenses

HHs with No Emigrants 6469 10688 HHs With Emigrants Total 12169 8538 19186 13933

Direct Benefits of Migration

Savings and Investment • Human Development (education and health) • Unemployment and Poverty • Standard of Living • Reduce Inequality

Indirect effects of migration

• • • • • • Reductions in Fertility Political participation (financing political parties and elections) Philanthropy Women empowerment Knowledge and skills diffusion Entrepreneurship and work culture

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