The “Rise” of China – and its
Coming “Fall”?
On the Minds of China’s
Leaders…

Significant leadership change in 2012
National security
 Stability & control
 Economic growth
 Awareness of challenges/weaknesses

A “Jasmine Spring”?
On the minds of China’s
leaders, cont’d.

Importance of a stable world
Conflicted world leadership
 Pride & humiliation
 No trend continues forever

China’s achievements since
1976

World’s 2nd largest economy
China’s achievements since
1976, cont’d.
Trade has ballooned; now critical to economy
 People’s livelihood has improved
 Communist ideology is out


Enhanced involvement in worldwide organizations

Steady modernization of armed forces
China’s achievements since
1976, cont’d.
Steady expansion
of space program
Hong Kong, Taiwan,
Macau
“The Future Ain’t What It Used
To Be!”
China’s Many Challenges
Governance
China’s Many Challenges
Civil Society
 Economic
 Corruption
 Demography

Environmental degradation
China’s many challenges,
cont’d.

Social
 Ethnic tensions
Government control
 Legal
 National security;
strategic policy

“It’s tough making predictions,
particularly about the future.”
A proposition…
China’s spectacular “rise” could
become a “fall” for at least a period of
time as challenges multiply and
undermine governance, economic
growth, social stability and political
cohesion
Possible developments

Political
Questions:
1. Would the US and other foreign businesses begin to
pull back on investment and operations in China?
2. Would a weak Chinese government really be better
for the US?
3. Could we still say that what happens in China stays
in China?
Possible developments,
cont’d.

Economic

Demographic

Environmental degradation and future threats
Ethnic tensions
 Corruption


National security policy
US Long-term Approach
to China

Get our own house in order!

Recognize China long-term will be major player and seek
broad and deep engagement on all levels

Maintain clear-sighted emphasis on US national interests –
speak clearly, negotiate tenaciously

Maintain strong national security – seek broader
engagement with Chinese military, discuss strategic goals,
increase transparency and trust

Economic/trade – relentless pursuit of specific US goals

Don’t preach!
What Do You Think?