Chinese Context and the Monitoring
and Evaluation Framework of the
11th Five-Year Plan
Xu Lin
Director General
Department of Fiscal and Financial
Affairs, NDRC
China’s Five-Year Plan and Its M&E
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China’s Five-Year Plan for Economic and Social
Development is a key strategy document of the
Chinese government
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It decides on the development priorities of the country
in the five-year period covered.
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First Five-Year Plan was prepared in 1953
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11th Five-Year Plan just began, covering 2006-2010
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No M&E activity for the Plan till the 10th Five-Year
Plan
Mid-Course Review of the 10th Five-Year Plan
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Initiated by the Strategic Planning Department of
NDRC, which is also the Plan maker.
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The objective was to find out if any 10th Five-Year
Plan targets were not appropriate anymore and if
any implementation measure were not effective and
need improvement.
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Informal and experimental in scope; used available
data
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Based on local government’s and Ministries’ midterm reviews and experts’ independent opinions.
Mid-Course Review of the 10th Five-Year Plan
(continued)
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The Review was done from nine aspects:
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Macro-regulatory targets
Industrial structure,
Development of western region,
Urbanization,
Science, technology and education,
Natural environment,
Reform of the economic system,
Opening up to the outside world,
People’s lives.
Mid-Course Review of the 10th Five-Year Plan
(continued)
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The Review identified five major problems
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Unhealthy pattern of the economic growth, relying
overly on investment and export
Insufficient development of the tertiary industry
Insufficient policy guidance and incentives for
developing western region
The slow progress of urbanization
The unbalance between economic and social
development
Contributed to the new thinking on people-centered
development concept and the 11th Five-Year Plan
Country Context for M&E
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M&E now a priority of the government
Prime Minister Wen Jiabao called on
government departments at various levels to
“establish accountability system and
undertake M&E activities”.
China’s 11th Five-Year Plan
(2006-2010)
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Major shift from previous GDP-focused
development approach
Based on scientific concept of development –
“People-centered development, which is
comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable, for
the promotion of overall harmonic development of
economy, society and human beings.”
China’s 11th Five-Year Plan
(2006-2010)
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(continued)
Five balances as the guiding principles: balancing
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urban and rural development
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coastal and inland development
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economic and social development
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man and nature development
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domestic development and opening up to the
outside world
China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010) (continued)
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For the first time, contained an M&E indicator matrix
with 22 indicators, 8 of them with quantitative targets
and 14 with benchmarks;
The “benchmark” indicators are the country’s
anticipated development indicators. They will rely
mainly on the market force to help the realization of
them. The government should create a favorable to try
to help realize these benchmarks.
The “target” indicators are the indicators that the
government is responsible for and obligated to achieve.
They are the requirements by the central government for
local governments and central government
department/agencies. The central government will
guarantee the meeting of these targets.
China’s 11th Five-Year Plan (2006-2010)
(continued)
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The Plan has also for the first time contained
specific text discussions on the importance of
M&E work and
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explicitly committed to carry out a mid-course
evaluation on the 11th FYP, which will then be
subject to the review of the standing committee
of the National People’s Congress (NPC).
M&E of China’s 11th Five-Year Plan: Objectives
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To monitor the implementation progress of the Plan
to find out where the country is
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To evaluate the implementation effectiveness of the
Plan to find out why the targets and benchmarks
are or are not being achieved
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The lessons learned will guide the implementation
process of the 11th five-year plan in the later part of
the five-year period.
M&E of China’s 11th Five-Year Plan: Methodologies
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Internationally Recognized Ten Steps Model
--Readiness assessment,
--Agreeing on outcomes to M&E
--Selecting key performance indicators to monitor
--Setting baselines and gathering data on indicators
--Selecting Targets
...
Consultations with both international and domestic
experts
6. Monitoring and Evaluation of China’s
11th Five-Year Plan: Framework
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Five-balances as the guiding Principle
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3 to 4 goals for each Balance
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About 80 candidate monitoring indicators
7. Monitoring and Evaluation
Framework of China’s 11th Five-Year
Plan: Core Indicators
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22 core indicators
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8 obligatory
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14 anticipated
8. Monitoring and Evaluation
Framework of China’s 11th Five-Year
Plan: Input Indicators
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Two Types of Input information for each
Balance
Info. on input activities: government
policies and regulations
Info. on input indicators: government
expenditure composition and distribution
9. Monitoring and Evaluation
Framework of China’s 11th Five-Year
Plan: Going Forward
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Refining and finalizing the indicators
Deciding on targets or benchmarks
Institutional setups: organizational
structure, legal framework etc.
Mid-course evaluation
Thank you!
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mid-term evaluation of the 11th Plan,
scheduled for mid-2008. The mid-term
evaluation will also be a test for the M&E
framework, allowing for lesson learning and
corrections as well as improvements, and
pointing out to additional needs in terms of
statistical data and indicators