Don’t Believe Everything You
Think
The Six Basic Mistake People Make in
Thinking
Thinking is
Skilled work.
People with untrained minds should no
more expect to think clearly and logically
than people who have never learned and
never practiced can expect to find
themselves good carpenters, golfers,
bridge players or pianists.
Science is a
METHOD,
not a
SUBJECT
QUIZ
#1) In the past 20 years, violence in schools has:
A) Increased
B) Remained about the same
C) Decreased
QUIZ
#2) In the past 20 years, violent crime in
America has:
A) Increased
B) Remained about the same
C) Decreased
QUIZ
• The answer to both was c) decreased.
• Individual stories have a powerful affect on
how we see the world, but they do not
accurately reflect it.
Six Common Mistakes
• People prefer Stories to statistics
Anecdote ≠ Data
Many factors contribute to each individual
person or situation. This is why science uses
statistics.
For example, an individual may smoke cigarettes
for 80 years and die of an unrelated cause, but
statistics show people who smoke are 8x more
likely to have heart and lung disease.
The popular media
usually reports both
sides of an issue; even if
there is only one side.
Stories are often about conflict and
the media looks for the
conflict…even if it has to inflate it…or
make it up.
Quiz
#3) The following three numbers follow a rule.
If you give 3 numbers, I will tell you whether
or not they follow the same rule. Attempt to
discover what the rule is:
2, 4, 6
Quiz
2, 4, 6
The rule is: “Three positive whole numbers in
ascending order.”
Six Common Mistakes
• People prefer Stories to statistics
• People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas
Science Thought
• Most people seek evidence to support.
• In science, we attempt to disprove.
• Nothing can EVER be proven. Cases may still
exist to falsify.
Lucy: I think your the most selfish human being on
the planet.
George: Well that's just silly. Have you met
everybody on the planet?
-Sandra Bullock and Hugh Grant in Two Weeks Notice
The process of science
is about viciously
weeding out the bad
ideas and leaving the
good ones.
Science is:
•Testable
•Falsifiable
•Repeatable
If you don’t question
ideas, then you
cannot distinguish
the useful from the
worthless.
Scientific “facts” are
conclusions confirmed
to such an extent that
is reasonable to offer
agreement…but this
assent is NEVER final.
There are no final
answers in science—
only varying degrees
of probability.
QUIZ
#4) Which of the following is the most random?
A
B
QUIZ
#5) What is the chance of a coin coming up
heads on a single flip?
#6) What is the chance of a coin coming up heads
if I have already gotten 3 heads in a row?
#7) What is the chance of a coin coming up heads
if I have already gotten 10 heads in a row?
QUIZ
#8) A popular ESP test uses five (5) symbol cards
for the “reader” to try to identify. If each trial
uses twenty-five (25) cards, how many would
you expect by chance alone?
#9) Would it be evidence of psychic powers for
someone to get nine (9) right?
QUIZ
#4) A is the most random
A
B
QUIZ
#5) 50%
#6) 50%
#7) 50%
#8) five (5)
#9) No
The Bell Curve
SOMEBODY has to in the top 0.1%:
Million-to-one chances happen eight times a day in New York.
Six Common Mistakes
• People prefer Stories to statistics
• People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas
• People do not understand the role of chance
and coincidence in life
Chance: The Gambler’s Fallacy
• The roulette wheel has just hit four red
numbers in a row….bet on black: it is “due”
• John has just hit four three-point baskets in a
row...pass him the ball: he has a hot hand.
• The gambler has been winning at
blackjack…keep playing: he’s hot.
• The gambler has been losing at
blackjack…keep playing: he’s due.
What’s the chance?
• We must be aware of the power of chance
and coincidence.
• Will you take this bet: At least two people in
this room were born on the same day of the
month.
• Would you take this bet: At least two students
in my classes have the exact same birthday.
• BOTH have better than 75% chance.
Quiz
#10) Please write down the following sentence
Paris in the
the spring
Quiz:
#11) Describe what you see:
Quiz:
#12) Describe what you see:
Quiz:
#13) Count the number of passes
made by people in WHITE shirts.
PASSES
PASSES
Quiz answers
#10) Paris in the the spring
#11) Three partial circles (there is NO triangle)
#12) Faces? Vases? It’s both!
#13) Re-watch the video without counting…
Six Common Mistakes
• People prefer Stories to statistics
• People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas
• People do not understand the role of chance
and coincidence in life
• People misperceive the world around them
Patterns
• We are pattern seeking.
• The ability to see cause and effect has
enormous advantage
• The ability, however, can be easily fooled.
• Pareidolia-seeing patterns in random noise
• Responsible for ghost sightings, etc.
• We need to be careful to avoid seeing patterns
that do not exist.
Quiz
#14) Consider the following:
There is a contagious virus in the population. A
test exists for it that 100% accurate if you have
it (it will never say you don’t if you do.)
The test has a 5% false positive rate (says you
have it even though you don’t)
1 in 500 people have the virus.
IF your test says you have it, what is the chance
that you ACTUALLY have it?
Quiz
#15) Consider the following:
Steve is very intelligent, but speaks quietly. He is
shy and withdrawn, but tries to be very
helpful. He very orderly and pays attention to
the details.
Which is most likely Steve’s Job: Farmer,
Salesman , Airline pilot, Librarian, Actor?
Quiz Answers
#14) 1 in 500 have the virus.
For every 500 tested, 1 has the virus
5% test positive falsely (500 x 5%= 25)
So 1 true positive + 25 false = 26 total
your chance are 1/26 (4%) you really have
it!
#15) All are equally likely…
Six Common Mistakes
• People prefer Stories to statistics
• People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas
• People do not understand the role of chance
and coincidence in life
• People misperceive the world around them
• People over-simplify
Memorize this list
Sour
Nice
Candy
Honey
Sugar
Soda
Bitter
Chocolate
Good
Heart
Taste
Cake
Tooth
Tart
Pie
Quiz
#16) Write down the list of words.
#17) Which Star Wars character was Mr. Colby
posing with?
Quiz Answers
#16) Sour, Nice, Candy, Honey, Sugar, Soda,
Bitter, Chocolate, Good, Heart, Taste, Cake,
Tooth, Tart, Pie
#17) None. It was a Halo Costume!
Six Common Mistakes
• People prefer Stories to statistics
• People seek to Confirm, not question, ideas
• People do not understand the role of chance
and coincidence in life
• People misperceive the world around them
• People over-simplify
• People have faulty memories
Selective Memory
• Psychics make hundreds of predictions.
• Some, just be chance, turn out to be right.
• People remember the few right predictions
and forget wrong ones.
– Save a prediction issue of a magazine for one year
– Compare/Count the “hits” and “misses”
Don’t ignore
the negatives.
Consider all the
evidence.
Scientific Thinking
• Statistics: individual stories do not make data
• Science attempts to falsify
• Science takes into consideration the role of
chance and coincidence in studies
• Studies must be repeated to avoid perceptual
error
• All possibilities considered, only evidence
matters
The Scientific Method
Ask a Question/Define the Problem/Observation
Do Background Research
Construct a hypothesis
Experiment to test hypothesis
Analyze data and draw conclusions
Report your results
The Scientific Process