EU-Belarus Relations:
Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks
Mitchell A Orenstein
Johns Hopkins University SAIS
Dictatorship in the Heart of Europe
• How does Europe deal with a dictatorship in
the heart of Europe?
– Belarus has not progressed towards democracy,
market reform, membership in EU
– Challenges vision of Europe whole and free
• Especially when the EU will not use the carrot
of conditionality?
• EU policy defined by what it is not able to do
Argument
• Short on Carrots
– Carrot of membership is off the table
– EU tries to come up with other carrots
• Short on Sticks
– EU has imposed sanctions
– Has few other tools
• Problem Remains
The Carrot of Membership
• Membership conditionality has been EU’s
number one tool
– Influenced Central and Eastern Europe
– Influenced the Balkans
• No agreement on offering membership to
non-Baltic former Soviet states
• Europe beset by enlargement fatigue
• Membership conditionality is out
Let’s Find Some New Carrots?
Berlusconi Visit to Belarus
Lukashenko at Vatican
New Carrots?
• Recognition
– Lukashenko Visits Vatican, April 2009
– Berlusconi Visits Belarus, December 2009
– Grybauskaite Visits Belarus, October 2010
• Money
– IMF Loan to Belarus, $3.6bn, January 2009
– EBRD Strategy for Belarus, December 2009
– EU promises $4bn, November 2010
• With Political Conditionality
Charm Offensive Ends
After December 19th, 2010
• EU and US impose travel bans on top officials
• Belarus currency collapses, May 2011
– Needs infusion of cash
– Negotiates with Russians, Chinese, Iranians, IMF
• Voices in EU urge new carrots
– Bulgarian Foreign Minister Mladenov letter
– Polish Prime Minister Tusk
• Belarus cancels participation in European
Partnership Summit, supports Eurasian Union
Short on Carrots, Short on Sticks
• EU cannot foster political change in Belarus
• Without carrot of EU membership,
relationship with Russia is more important
• Sticks are symbolic, but not effective
– More effective stick might be a ban on oil and gas
imports from Belarus
• EU continue to sway between engagement
and isolation
Policy Options
•
•
•
•
Strengthen Sanctions
Engagement
Bail Out Economy
Watch and Wait