Scottish Independence
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
1
Scottish Independence
• We will consider facts and data on:
• history
• population
• economy
• opinion
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
2
A separate state with a separate identity?
• 844 Irish settlers and Picts formed kingdom of Alba (north
of Forth and Clyde)
• 1018 south-east stolen from England in Battle of Carham
• 1034 south-west obtained from England by marriage
• 1266 Western Isles obtained from Norway by treaty
• Shetland and Orkney obtained from Norway by marriage
• A separate state with a separate identity?
• no obvious frontier between north and south Britain
• no physical barriers within Scotland
• differences of race and language among its people
• contrast between Highlands and Lowlands
• affinities between the Lowlands and England
• Picts and Britons, Scandinavians, Angles and Normans
laid aside memories of the past and adopted the
mythology of the Scots, who came as Irish invaders
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
3
Some More Dates
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
1603 Union of crowns – James IV/ I (incl. Ireland & France)
1707 political union following the Darien adventure
1745 Jacobite rebellion – Bonny Prince Charlie
1746 Culloden – rout of Jacobites
1885 Scottish Secretary and Scottish Office established
1886 Gladstone Irish Home Rule Bill introduced
1913 Scottish Home Rule bill introduced
1921 SNL set up in London
1928 NPS formed
1934 SNP formed – NPS + Scottish Party (Conservatives)
1967 Winnie Ewing wins Hamilton seat for SNP
1974 11 SNP MPs
1999 Scottish Parliament – devolution
2011 SNP majority government
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
4
Scottish Independence
Some Data
• UK, pop 60 million, GDP £1500 billion
• Scotland, pop 5.3 million, GDP £150 billion
• Consider other countries
• Ireland, pop 4.5 million, GDP £110 billion
• Finland, pop 5.4 million, GDP £120 billion
• Norway, pop 5 million, GDP £170 billion
• Number of Scots in England 800,000
• Number of English in Scotland 400,000
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
Scottish Independence
Voters will be asked the yes/no question: "Should Scotland
be an independent country?"
The Scottish government's original version of the question,
"Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent
country?", was dropped after the Electoral Commission
raised concerns it could lead people into voting "yes".
Past incarnations of the referendum question have proved
far more wordy.
The SNP previously said people could be asked to vote "Yes I
agree" or "No I disagree" to the statement: "The Scottish
Parliament should negotiate a new settlement with the
British government, based on the proposals set out in the
white paper, so that Scotland becomes a sovereign and
independent state."
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
6
Scottish Independence
• When?
• Referendum 18 September 2014
• 2014 the Ryder Cup golf tournament and the Commonwealth
Games - are being held in Scotland.
• 700th anniversary of the Battle of Bannockburn in 1314,
English army defeated by Robert the Bruce, during the wars
of independence.
• But 100th anniversary of WW1
• Effective if approved May 2016
• Why? An SNP obsession?
• Who votes?
• Scottish residents over 16
• What do Scottish residents think now?
• 80% of people we met were against even having the referendum
• 60% in a recent poll think too much money is being spent on the
referendum
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
7
Scottish Independence
• Do Scots understand?
• 14% claim to understand what the Scottish Parliament
does after 14 years of devolution
• The opinion polls
• yes 27 to 30%
• no 41 to 45%
• don’t know 22 to 33%
• Scotland’s Future white paper
• 81% of over-55s have heard of it
• 45% of 16 to 34 age group have heard of it
• What would it mean to the England?
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
8
Scottish Independence
• The protagonists
• SNP and Green Party (Alex Salmond MSP, First
Minister) – tax funded
• Better Together campaign, (Alistair Darling) funded by donation
• Scotland’s Future white paper – 670 pages
• A new poll reveals that almost 60% of people in
Scotland believe Alex Salmond is spending too
much public money advertising his White Paper
manifesto for breaking up the UK.
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
9
Scottish Independence
SNP Promises
• Children from age 1 will have free care
for 1140 hours a year
• Trident to be removed
• Income tax will not increase
• No border checks to England
• Immigration encouraged
• 90% of oil and gas = £22 billion
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
10
Scottish Independence
•
•
•
•
Is it like Britain and the EU?
Is it practical?
What is Scotland?
How would you decide?
• Economics
• Religion
• Defence
• Religion
• Identity
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
11
Scottish Independence
Potential Advantages
•
•
•
•
Decisions taken more locally
Greater sense of identity
Would not be ruled by English Tories
Could be neutral and avoid defence spending
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
12
Scottish Independence
Potential Disadvantages
• Would become parochial and insular, less tolerant
• Taxation would increase or services reduce
• England may be disadvantaged ( and most Scots have
family in England)
• Currency in doubt (SNP has no plan B)
• Credit rating not likely to be AAA as UK
• EU membership in doubt
• Lots of uncertainty
• Would be a minor nation
• Loss of identity
• If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
13
Scottish Independence, Conclusions
• If the British have the right to succeed from the EU,
the Scots have the right to succeed from the Great
Britain
• It’s good that Scotland has the choice
• Symptom of the failure of central government to be
sympathetic to those living away from Whitehall
• Scottishness is an arbtiary identity
• More to do with people wishing for local autonomy
than for identity
• Clannish, tribal, family ideas should be obsolete in a
diverse and tolerant world
• It will be a setback for civilisation if it says “Yes”
• Irish independence is a mistake
• I blame the Catholic Church
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
14
Scottish Independence, Conclusions
• It’s good that Scotland has the choice
• The referendum will decided more on emotion than
on a careful analysis of the data (how many of us
would take the time or be capable of assessing the
likely credit rating of the country , making a sensible
estimate of declining oil revenues?)
• It will be a setback for civilisation if it says “Yes”
• Irish independence is a mistake
• I blame the Catholic Church
U3A PPS, Jan 2014
15