Problems, Policy and
Political Streams
PA 5012
Anders Victor
Willy Boulay
Agenda
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Garbage Can Model
Stream Discussion
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Problems, policies and politics
Supplement: 'Recycling the Garbage Can'
Example: Drone Policy
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Overview
Three streams
Background
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Policy formation questions
o How is the agenda set?
o How are alternatives specified?
o Why do these processes work like they do?
Cohen, March & Olsen: Garbage Can
Kingdon: Stream Model
The Garbage Can Model
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Organized
Anarchies
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Cohen, March &
Olsen: Federal
government
Outcomes: function
of mix of garbage in
the can and how it is
processed
o
Heavily dependent on
coupling of streams
Source: http://www.sheilazellerinteriors.com/wpcontent/uploads/2012/01/Oscar-the-Grouch-Scram.jpg
Kingdon: Three Streams
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Recognize problems
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How and why do certain problems capture the
attention of the government?
Generate proposals for policy change
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Similar to solutions stream of Garbage Can model
Engage in political activities
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National mood, elections, shifts of Congress, interest
group campaigns
Problem Stream
"Conditions become defined as problems when we come to believe
that we should do something about them"
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Indicators
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Focusing events
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Powerful=measurable
Interpretation
Crisis &
accompaniment
Ex: I-35W bridge
collapse
Feedback
Policy Stream
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The Policy Primeval Soup
Policy communities
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Fragmentation
Incentives
Policy entrepreneurs
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Incentives: personal interests, ideology, 'policy groupies'
Softening up
Survival
"There is no new thing under the sun"
Political Stream
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National mood
Organized political forces
Government
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Turnover, jurisdiction
Consensus building
"Important promoter or inhibitor of high
agenda status"
'Recycling the Garbage Can'
"Formalization often helps science progress, but it is not a
panacea. In this case a heavy price was paid, for the
verbal theory and the computer model do not represent
the same phenomena at all. Decision makers in the
verbal theory confront a chaotic world in which
they, solutions, and problems dance around one
another, meeting by chance in choice arenas.
But in the simulation, packs of decision makers-and
often problems as well-march in lockstep from
arena to arena. And solutions never move at all. This
is ironic. The informal theory of the garbage can is
famous for depicting a world that is much more complex
than that described by classical theories of
organizational choice. The latter's tidy image of goal
specification, alternative generation, evaluation, and
choice is replaced by a complex swirl of problems
looking for solutions, solutions looking for problems,
participants wandering around looking for work, and all
three searching for choice opportunities. Yet, the
simulation depicts almost none of this and in fact creates
a world of remarkable order."
Recycling the Garbage Can: An Assessment of the Research Program. Jonathan Bendor; Terry M. Moe; Kenneth W. Shotts. The
American Political Science Review, Vol. 95, No. 1. (Mar., 2001), pp. 169-190.
Example: Drone Policy
Source:
http://dronewarsuk.files.wordpress.com/2010/06/predator-firing-missile4.jpg?w=300&h=225
Source: http://www.neotrouve.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/07/mosquito-drone-mock-up-150x150.jpg
Current State of Drone Policy in U.S.
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No publically released current drone use
policy by the federal government
Confirmed use of drone technology by
United States Air Force and Central
Intelligence Agency in multiple conflict areas
Unconfirmed usage by domestic law
enforcement agencies for surveillance of
citizenry
Drone Policy Issues
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Oversight gaps
Transparency
Ethical, legal, and societal implications of
use
Advanced development and expanded use
Simply put: there is no concrete policy
Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/4/45/Binoculars_25x100.jpg/800px-Binoculars_25x100.jpg
Capturing Attention and the
Problem Stream
"Fairly often, problems come to the attention of
governmental decision makers...because some more or
less systematic indicator simply shows that there is a
problem out there." Kingdon, p. 90
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Indicators (must be pervasive, necessary, and powerful)
Focusing events
Defining the drone problem
The Drone Policy Stream
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Fragmented
Congressional
community
continually shifts the
agenda
Rand Paul's 13 hour
filibuster
The role of values
and technical
feasibility
The short list of
alternatives
Source: http://media.cagle.com/91/2013/03/08/128382_600.jpg
Powers that be: The Political Stream
"Flowing along independently of the problems and policy streams is the political
stream, composed of such things as public mood, pressure group
campaigns, election results, partisan or ideological distributions in
Congress, and changes of administration." Kingdon, p. 145
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National mood: Washington Post poll shows
79% approval for Rand Paul's stance on
limiting domestic use of drones
Turnover of Congress
Jurisdiction: The struggle for control
Tipping point
Questions
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Considering what we've learned about the three
political streams, what is the outlook for the
development of a concrete drone policy?
Relating the Garbage Can model to drone
policy, what streams are most likely to form
couplings? Will these initial couplings serve to
inhibit progress on the issue or encourage it?