Trade Policies, Household Welfare and Poverty Alleviation Book Launch Nina Pavcnik Dartmouth College UNCTAD, September 8, 2014 Why this book? • Low- and middle-income countries have dramatically increased their participation in global economy – Exports of low income countries grew from 26 percent of their GDP in 1994 to 55 percent in 2008 – Exports of middle income countries grew from 25 to 55 percent of their GDP between 1994 and 2008 • Global poverty has dropped from 52% in 1981 to 22% in 2008 ($1 a day measure) • How do the poor fare in a globalized world? Source: Hanson (2012), Chan and Ravallion (2012) Why this book? • How do the poor fare as low-income countries embrace more liberalized trade policies and expose domestic markets to intl. competition? • Under what circumstances do the poor benefit as countries gain access to highincome export markets? • What are the consequences of terms-of-trade shocks for the poor? This book • Contributes to research on globalization and poverty • Examines the welfare and poverty consequences of changes in global commodity prices and trade policies • Collection of 8 case studies Outline of the talk • The book in broader context of research on globalization and poverty • Overview of case studies • Key insights Outline of the talk • The book in broader context of research on globalization and poverty • Overview of case studies • Key insights Globalization and Poverty • Effects of trade on poverty through – economic growth – effects on relative prices, wages, and employment – effects on relative prices, consumption and production/earnings • Case studies in this book focus on the third mechanism Main mechanism • Short-term effects of price changes on household welfare and poverty through household – consumption – production – wage earnings • Quantify the role of these channels with information from household-level survey data Basic idea: Consumption • Individuals differ in income and goods vary in sensitivity of demand to income • Poor and rich individuals differ in consumption expenditure shares at given prices • Trade shocks (via prices) have unequal effects on welfare of poor/rich – Consumers with lower incomes benefit more from price reductions of low-income elastic goods Basic idea: Production • Individuals differ in source of earnings/production • Individuals differ in income shares from production/wage earnings at given prices • Trade shocks (via prices) have unequal effects on welfare of poor/rich through production Terms-of-trade shocks in food • Welfare effects of food price changes revealed to be a concern for individuals and policy makers in low- and middle-income countries – Riots and policy responses to 2007-8 food price increases – Motivated by concerns about increased poverty • To the extent the poor are net consumers of food, they would be disproportionately negatively affected • Poor would benefit if they are net producers of food Focus on food • Large component of average household budget – 6.6% in the US; 25% in India; 27% in China; 40% or over in Nigeria, Cameroon, Pakistan • The largest budget item for the very poor in less developed economies – 58-75 % of household budget of the poor spent on food Source: USDA Economic Research Service (2012), Duflo and Benarjee (2007) Focus on food Prevalence of agricultural employment in low-income countries Outline of the talk • The book in broader context of research on globalization and poverty • Overview of case studies • Key insights The book has two broad themes • Welfare and poverty consequences of recent increases in global food prices – Importing countries (Philippines, FYR of Macedonia) – Exporting country (Argentina) • Welfare effects of trade policies and exchange rate shocks – Costa Rica, Peru, Nigeria, China, and Viet Nam Topics Case-study countries Case studies focus on lower-middle to middle income countries Country Philippines GDP per capita (PPP USD 2010) 3,910 FYR of Macedonia 11,367 Argentina 12,016 China Costa Rica 7,503 11,504 Peru 9,355 Nigeria 2,388 Viet Nam 3,334 Case-study countries Case study countries differ in aggregate poverty levels (as measured by $1 a day) Country Philippines GDP per capita Poverty rate (PPP USD 2010) ($1.25 a day) 3,910 18.4 FYR of Macedonia 11,367 0.6 Argentina 12,016 0.9 7,503 16.3 11,504 3.1 Peru 9,355 4.9 Nigeria 2,388 68 Viet Nam 3,334 16.9 China Costa Rica Case-study countries Case-study countries differ in their exposure to global agricultural markets through production and employment Country Philippines GDP per capita Poverty rate (PPP 2010 USD) ($1.25 a day) Agricultural employment (share of total) 3,910 18.4 33 FYR of Macedonia 11,367 0.6 19 Argentina 12,016 0.9 1 7,503 16.3 37 11,504 3.1 15 Peru 9,355 4.9 26 Nigeria 2,388 68 45 Viet Nam 3,334 16.9 48 China Costa Rica Outline of the talk • The book in broader context of research on globalization and poverty • Overview of case studies • Key insights Broad findings • Not possible to generalize how trade policy or higher food prices affect the poor – Add to evidence by Aksoy and Hoekman (2010) • The consequences of shocks for the poor are country- and commodity-specific and depend on – Impact of the policy change on domestic prices – The magnitude of price change – Exposure of the poor households to price fluctuations as consumers and producers/wage earners Broad findings-an illustration Philippines • Importer of rice FYR of Macedonia • Importer of maize • Increase in the price of rice • Increase in the price of maize • Harms the rural poor • Benefits the rural poor – Net consumers of rice – Net producers of maize Importance of micro-survey analysis • Policy-makers are concerned about distributional effects of price shocks/policy • Useful to evaluate consequences of trade policy or policy responses to terms-of-trade shocks with evidence based on micro data – Short-term effects of price changes – Ex-ante impact of potential trade policy • Potential short-term effect of CAFTA-DR in Costa Rica Domestic distortions • Welfare effects of price changes/policy depend on how price changes are passed through the supply chain from ports/producers to consumers • Domestic distortions influence transmission of price changes to domestic producers and consumers – Internal trade costs – Wholesale and retail distribution – Imperfect pass-through (variable markups) • Distortion might vary across poor vs. rich households Domestic distortions: an illustration • Producer welfare gains from higher prices – The main beneficiaries might be the middlemen and intermediaries rather than producers of commodities – Case studies for Vietnam, Argentina • Consumer welfare gains from lower import tariffs – Consumer welfare gains might be reduced when wholesale importers do not fully pass-on cost savings to consumers of final goods • Case studies for Costa Rica, Peru Summary • The case studies in this book provide useful policy-relevant insights on welfare and poverty consequences of changes in global commodity prices and trade policies in casestudy countries Thank you