Laffer Curve July 12, 2012 This is the original graph that Art Laffer wrote on a napkin. There is nothing wrong with this graph, but we want to make it easier to understand, because graphs can become confusing. The only thing the Laffer Curve addresses is the tax rates. Economics is very complicated because it is effected by many factors, such as: Tax Rates Regulations Deductions Exemptions Stability of Currency Total Spending Tax credits. What is Taxable GDP? Taxable GDP stands for Gross Domestic Product that is taxable. Taxable Gross Domestic Product is all the product made and services provided for a country in a given year that can be taxed. In the Laffer Curve we only talk about taxable GDP. What is Taxable GDP? • Taxable GDP is the money you make that can be taxed by the government. • This does not include income that is deducted, exempted, or labor you do yourself. Taxable GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 The Laffer Curve does not assume This graph is saying that the this. 100 100 100 100 100 90% 100% This line is the taxable GDP. taxable GDP will stay the same as the tax rates increase. These numbers are the tax rates. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Tax rate 60% 70% 80% Taxable GDP 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 100 90 80 The Laffer Curve does not assume this. 70 60 50 40 30 Congressional This graph is This assumes tax This line that represents Budget Office saying that the payersthe thoughts amount and of actions (CBO) uses this taxable GDP will money government is do not change with getting from taxes.as stay the same chart. changing tax rates. the tax rates increase. 20 10 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Tax Rates 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% The Laffer Curve believes that tax payers thoughts and actions do change with changing tax rates. As the Tax Rate increases, the benefit of the profit is reduced; thus entrepreneurs are less likely to start, expand, or might even close a business. Pros of a Business 1. Profits Cons of a Business 1. Your own labor and time 2.Expenses As tax rates increases, the weight or worth of profits are greatly reduced. Back to the Basics A trade of product or labor only happens when two people agree on a mutual cost that benefits both people. If they both decide that it’s fair to trade ten chickens for ten stalks of corn, and the government has a 50% tax rate, then each person will give ten of their items away, and only receive five of the other persons product. Back to the Basics The government is taking the other five products from each person. The more the government taxes, the less people are willing to trade. If people stop trading completely, the governments income would cease to exist. Now we are going to look at the logic of the Laffer Curve. Its shows us that people’s thoughts and actions do change with increasing tax rates. Laffer Curve 100 90 80 100 When tax rates 70 represents increase, people the do not see worth in maximum If the tax and rate stands buying goods amount of$60 services. So, theyis the full at 40%, taxable try to do things on taxable GDP. there own, which is GDP not nearly as without the productive. This is affect of tax comparable rates. advantage. Unlike the other graphs, this graph is what the Laffer taxes Curve 100%. So, we are no 40 assumes. longer willing The reason why Labor you do yourself is not thePeople taxablewill GDP taxed. Buying things is is diagonal have a hardis important,line because because people’s it allows people to focus on seeing Lets first look at time this line so one thing and get goodtoatwork that the Lafferwillingness Curve makes the potential Zero doing that. The higher the tax rate, is increasingly less a little bit more sense. represents the less willing people are to work. unrealized. as the government 60 when taxes us. government 50 30 to work. 20 10 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Tax Rates Taxable GDP 70% 80% 90% 100% We are going to take the amount of taxable Lets look at We haveGDP already talked 100 we are willing to 30% of $70=$21 the math! 70% of $30=$21 about the blue diagonal 0% of $100=$0 make. 90 line. It shows us Then how subtract willing we arepercent toAt work when the that theraterate 70% taxation 81 At 100% taxation 80 At 30% taxation the government taxes us. At you 0% are taxation willing rate to government is taxing you are willing The green line shows usto rate you are willing 70 youthat are make willing $30. to make $0. us. After we will to make $70. how much money 64 make $100.we 60 70% ofthe $30 isthe $21. be left with 100% of $0 is $0. get to keep after 30% of $70 is $21. Shows the income 0%we ofget $100 to is keep $0.get $9. We Both the government money the people 50 We get to keep government taxes us. from the taxes. 49 get to us keep $100 Taxation by the and only keep $0 This is the actual to keep. $49. 40 Laffer Curve. government 36 Laffer Curve 100% of $0=$0 16 21 24 25 30 24 16 9 21 9 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Tax Rates 70% 20 16 4 80% 10 9 1 0 90% 100% Lessons Learned We have to know when to stop taxing. As we saw, if the government taxes us too much, then it is no longer worth working. People then start trying to do things on their own. This is not nearly as productive. Lessons Learned The higher the rate of welfare, the less economic activity. If the government gives us things, we are less willing to work for it. The total amount of people in America on welfare is approximately 15,000,000 people! $132 billion are spent on welfare alone each year (not including food stamps or unemployment)! This forces the tax rate higher, thus reducing GDP. Lessons Learned Exemptions and deductions are counterproductive. Exemptions and deductions are when government makes exceptions on what GDP is taxed and what is not. When government makes exceptions on too many circumstances, they realize they aren’t getting enough tax revenue. So, they raise tax rates. Now, as we learned, they aren’t going to raise enough tax revenue. Lessons Learned If you have 30% taxation rate and you have a taxable GDP of $70 the government collects $21. If you then exempt 50% of the GDP, the governments income drops to $10.50. Lessons Learned You will never be able to raise rates high enough to get back to $21 because the taxable GDP drops as you raise the rates. It is far superior to lower tax rates instead of using deductions and exceptions. Having progressive tax rates are similar to large deductions. One low, flat rate with no exemptions or deductions will result in a much higher GDP 100 90 81 This will result in higher employment and higher pay. 80 70 64 60 50 49 40 36 16 21 24 25 30 24 16 9 21 9 0 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Tax Rates 70% 20 16 4 80% 10 9 1 0 90% 100%