Nicky Linihan
Director – NJL-Solutions

National Planning Policy Framework
Para 47: To boost significantly the supply of housing, local planning authorities should: use their evidence base to ensure that their Local Plan meets the full, objectively assessed needs for market and affordable housing in the housing market area, as far as is consistent with the policies set out in this Framework…..
Para 50 :
• Plan for a mix of housing based on current and future demographic trends, market trends and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes);
• identify the size, type, tenure and range of housing that is required in particular locations, reflecting local demand;

Para 159: Local planning authorities should prepare a Strategic
Housing Market Assessment (SHMA).
The SHMA should: identify the scale and mix of housing and the
range of tenures that the local population is likely to need over the plan period which:
• meets household and population projections, taking account of migration and demographic change;
• addresses the need for all types of housing, including affordable housing and the needs of different groups in the community (such as, but not limited to, families with children, older people, people with disabilities, service families and people wishing to build their own homes); and
• caters for housing demand and the scale of housing supply necessary to meet this demand;

National Planning Practice Guidance (NPPG)
The starting point: household projections
• They are trend based i.e. they provide the household levels and structures that would result if the assumptions based on previous demographic trends in the population and rates of formation were to be realised in practice.
• They do not attempt to predict the impact that future government policies, changing economic circumstances or other factors might have on demographic behaviour.

NPPG Continued
Other factors that need to be taken into account:
• The level of affordable housing
• Economic/employment needs
Plan makers should not apply constraints to the overall assessment e.g. limitations imposed by the supply of land, environmental constraints.
In combination the above factors give an indication of the number of homes likely to be needed which can then be tested in terms of , for example, availability of sites, viability/deliverability, infrastructure, environmental constraints.

Some practical assistance: www.howmanyhomes.org
Provides an excel based toolkit using Office of National Statistics and Department of Community and Local Government population and household projections - presents it in a easy to read way so that you can:
• See how a local authority area has changed and what it looks like now
• What the overall level of population is likely to be in the future
• What it is likely to look like in terms of its age profile
• What type of households are likely to exist in the future in terms of size and age
• See how these compare with neighbouring authority areas
NB The toolkit has not been updated to take account of the
2011 household projections published April 2013

• Provides the ‘starting point’ for having an informed debate on the number and types of homes likely to be needed in a local authority area
• Provides the same information for every local authority in England
• Is supported by a Companion Guide produced by the
Local Housing Requirements Working Group (LHRAWG), and a report prepared by the Cambridge Centre for
Planning and Housing Research: ‘ Choice of
Assumptions in Forecasting Housing Requirements’.
• It’s free!
LHRAWG includes: BPF, Building and Social Housing Foundation, CIH,
HBF, LGA, NHF, Northern Housing Consortium, POS, Shelter, RICS, RTPI,
TCPA.

Who is responsible for house building?
Nicky’s statistically invalid survey!!
Those questioned are not involved in the planning and housing professions and the responses set out below are taken from direct quotes:
‘local councils; housebuilders; government and government policy; individuals through small site development; landowners; capitalists/entrepreneurs; charitable institutions (e.g. provision of alms houses); housing associations; building societies and banks; the consumer (no demand – no housebuilding)’
The missing ingredient – local communities.

Nicky Linihan nickylinihan@virginmedia.com

Community Context meeting local needs with rural exceptions
Arlene Kersley
Rural Housing Enabler for Berkshire
Arlene.kersley@ccberks.org.uk
07894 099384

Para 54:In rural areas…local planning authorities should be responsive to local circumstances and plan housing development to reflect local needs, particularly for affordable housing, including through rural exception sites where appropriate.
Local planning authorities should in particular consider whether allowing some market housing would facilitate the provision of significant additional affordable housing to meet local needs.

“… there are occasions where primary data could be used. Examples include:
• to assess the requirements of specific household groups of local interest or importance relating to particular affordable housing products.
In addition, survey data can provide evidence about housing aspirations and preferences.

• Surveys
• Consultation event feedback
• Registries of Interest

• Ensure surveys /reports reflect current
Local Authority allocations guidance and take into consideration the impacts of welfare reform and ‘spare room subsidy’

• Neighbourhood Plans
– Evidence must be wider in scope and take in the requirements of the whole community
• Rural Exception sites
– Still dependent on evidencing local affordable housing needs
• Is the LA waiting list sufficient?

Neighbourhood Statistics invaluable for collecting LLSOA and parish data.

3 month consultation on the future of the Census
23 September to 13 th December
There is a risk that in the future the Census will not include small area statistics.
http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/media-centre/statements/census-consultation/index.html

Nicky Linihan nickylinihan@virginmedia.com
Arlene Kersley arlene.kersley@ccberks.org.uk