U.S. 70 Corridor Economic Impact Assessment
presented to
U.S. 70 Corridor Commission
presented by
Cambridge Systematics, Inc.
Paula Dowell, PhD
Rocky Lane
June 19, 2014
Transportation leadership you can trust.
Agenda
1
2
3
• Economic Development
Analysis
• Traffic Analysis
• Economic Impact Findings
Economic Development Analysis
Input into Analysis
Interviews
Counties
Municipalities
Utilities
Regional Economic Development Organizations
Focus Groups
Data Research
Importance and Current Conditions of US 70
Varies widely from West to East
Critically Important for Communities Along 70
Rated 5 on a 1-5 Scale with 5 being the highest
Description
“Our Main Street”
“The Main East-West Artery”
“The Only Way In or Out
“We Live and Die by What Happens on 70”
Economic Development Implications
All major employers located within two (2) miles
Lenoir County
~ DuPont – 70 Trucks/Day going to I-95
~ 500 Trucks/Day in/out of the main Industrial Park
~ Thousands of Jobs within ¼ mile of the US 70 Centerline-Kinston
A factor in most plant expansion decision
Completion of the Bypass system improves competitive
position
Raw materials in/Finished goods out
Expansion of labor pool
Lost Projects in the Region
Existing Company Expansions
Big Rock Sports
~ US 70 Conditions – not the key, but a contributing factor
~ Lost 160 Jobs – 80 remain
New Locations
Boeing-Access to I-95
Gatorade-Access to I-95
Boat Builder
Implications for Port and Global TransPark
Completion from I-95 to Port rated “High”
Benefits to Port and Counties
~ Improve Quality of Port Projects
~ Open sites for Port Users
Connectivity to I-95 - “Very Important”
Global TransPark
Enhances GTP’s prospects
Potentially opens sites and parks in other Corridor counties
Necessary but not sufficient
Military
Importance Rated at 4 Out of 5
Connectivity to I-95 – “Very Important”
Primary corridor for delivery of mission critical elements - aircraft fuel &
parts
Primary corridor for personnel going to the Washington, DC area
US 70 is not critical to fulfillment of mission
Deployment – Non-Issue
BRAC – Non-Issue
Key Issues – Logistics & commuting related
Summary
Economic Profile - solid and healthy
Facing Challenges - Not all could be solved with
completion of Bypass system
Improvements benefit all sectors of economic
development
Improvements benefit not only the corridor but all of
North Carolina
Traffic Analysis
Methodology
Based on NCDOT forecasts
Individual bypass studies
Stakeholder input
Key Assumptions
Traffic projections completed at bypass level and not
corridor level
Growth adjusted based on planned development, e.g.,
6,000 jobs at GTP in 2040
Change in Travel Times
Distance
(miles)
Current
Travel Times
(minutes)
2040
No Build
(minutes)
2040
Build
(minutes)
Travel Time
Savings in
2040
Global TransPark to Raleigh
81.5
91
126
70
56
Global TransPark to Port of Morehead
76.3
88
86
65
21
Global TransPark to I-95
54
60
65
50
15
Port of Morehead to Raleigh
147
152
198
130
68
Port of Morehead to I-95
116
122
155
110
45
Route
Source: Google Maps and Cambridge Systematics, Inc. calculations using travel skims from the NS Statewide model.
Build scenario speed limit is assumed as 70 mph.
Economic Impact Analysis
Impact Categories
Direct User Impacts
Business
Competitiveness
Economic
Impacts
Travel time
Vehicle operating costs
Safety cost
Reliability
Traffic volumes
Productivity
Market access
Business costs
GDP
Employment
Income
Economic Impact of Not Completing US 70
2014 - 2040
Metric
Incremental
Change
%
U.S. 70 Counties
Business Transportation Costs ($billions 2012)
$0.35
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012)
($0.80)
(0.16)
Personal Income ($billions 2012)
($0.61)
(0.11)
(350)
(0.15)
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012)
($1.08)
0.20
Personal Income ($billions 2012)
($0.89)
0.17
(450)
0.18
Jobs (average annual full-time)
North Carolina
Jobs (average annual full-time)
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values
Economic Impact of Completing US 70
2014 - 2040
Metric
Incremental
Change
%
U.S. 70 Counties
Business Transportation Costs ($billions 2012)
($0.56)
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012)
$1.21
0.19
Personal Income ($billions 2012)
$0.91
0.18
550
0.19
Jobs (average annual full-time)
North Carolina
Gross Regional Product ($billions 2012)
$1.41
Personal Income ($billions 2012)
$1.04
Jobs (average annual full-time)
600
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values
Market Access Analysis and
Induced Economic Development
Economic development assessment
Stakeholder input
Site analysis
Gap analysis
I-40 Corridor
US 64 Corridor
Gap Analysis
Compare growth rate by industry along
corridor
Identify area where corridor is over and
under performing
Examine role of transportation
Estimate impact of enhancing
transportation on closing any gaps
Growth Comparison
Table Error! No text of specified style in document..6 Comparison of Employment
Growth Along Key Corridors in Eastern North Carolina
Corridor Comparison
Employment Growth
Average
U.S.70 Corridor
Average
Annual
Change in
Growth
Employment
Rate
Concentration
1990-2012
1990-2012
-0.05%
5%
I-40 Corridor
Average
Annual
Change in
Growth
Employment
Rate
Concentration
1990-2012
1990-2012
0.45%
24%
Source: North Carolina LEAD (Labor & Economic Analysis Division) of the North Carolina Department of Commerce, QECW data from
http://esesc23.esc.state.nc.us/d4/QCEWSelection.aspx
U.S.64/264 Corridor
Average
Annual
Change in
Growth
Employment
Rate
Concentration
1990-2012
1990-2012
0.87%
126%
Employment Impact of Closing the Gap
Average Annual
Additional Jobs
along U.S. 70
I-40 Growth
Rate
U.S. 64/264
Growth Rate
600
1,350
Summary Findings
Source of Impacts
Metric
Total Impacts
Build
U.S. 70 Corridor
Business Transportation Costs ($ Billions)
($.056)
Gross Regional Product ($ Billions)
$2.55 - $3.80
Personal Income($ Billions)
$1.90 - $2.85
Jobs (average annual full-time)
1,150 – 1,900
Rest of North Carolina
Gross Regional Product ($ Billions)
$1.40
Personal Income($ Billions)
$1.05
Jobs (average annual full-time)
600
Source: Cambridge Systematics analysis using the REMI economic model. ( ) denotes negative values
Key Takeaways
No build results in slower economic growth
340 fewer jobs per year and $800 million less in GRP between 2014 and
2040
Completing US 70 results in $56 million in business cost savings for
existing users, $1.2 billion in GRP between 2014 – 2040
Increasing efficiency, accessibility and connectivity translates into 1,150
to 1,900 additional jobs per year along U.S. 70
In total, the upgrading the entire U.S. 70 corridor could give rise to an
additional 1,150 to 1,900 jobs along the corridor and up to 2,500 jobs
per year statewide